My take on the PC industry "dying" ?

[compnet]

Sorry smart phones, laptops have first dibs on killing the desktop, THEN you can kill laptops.

For gamers, graphic designers, music producers, autocad, etc, even a laptop can't replace a desktop. Let me just dock my ipod and do some 3d rendering and play the latest video game on highest settings after

Not to mention the cloud isn't a bunch of tablets/phones/chrome books talking to each other. I see more server work in the future than ever, especially for SMB that want their own personal cloud.

Smart houses? Most people can't hook up a printer let alone make their desktop, laptop, tablet, and phone all talk to the printer, tv, fridge, garage door, lights, alarm, etc.

 

[ohio_grad_06]

We'll see. The other thing I think could be relevant is steam coming out for Linux and valve is talking about a steambox this year to compete with Xbox and ps4. Supposedly based on Linux running an amd APU. Maybe in the next 5 years Linux gets bigger and starts to usurp windows at some levels. Look at android already. Wonder what things will look like in 5 years.

 

[lsi]

I'll say it again - laptops and tablets can replace SOME of the desktops, but businesses will never get rid of their desktops for mobile devices. There is a chance that they may eventually get rid of their desktops for terminal devices to connect to the cloud but it won't be anything less than a full-blown monitor, real mouse, keyboard. It certainly won't be a mobile device. Has anyone here tried to type up reports all day on a tablet? On a laptop? Or working with spreadsheets on a mobile device? Ever try to do autocad on a laptop for a week? Try to originate loan or insurance paperwork from a tablet? Real people out there who work in real offices need to get things done that just aren't productive to do on anything other than a desktop. We are techs that go around and fix things but there are offices and offices full of people that work on desktops all day (and not just sit in front of it for a couple of hours fixing it) and if you tried to give them anything less than a desktop they would be very, very frustrated with you even if you tell them that "it's the future".

 

[ohio_grad_06]

I know some users in work environments have had to ask where the power button was. One person would sit and just stare at a blank screen with the PC off. I mean really you think those users are going to understand tablets.

 

[ohio_grad_06]

Also wanted to say that I just powered up my desktop at home, been using windows 8 since november and windows 8 still is kinda like ugh for me anyway.

 

[callthatgirl]

I think the best way to be prepared for the repairs going down is to find what else in technology your business can manage and assist with and learn it and start upsellling now to your clients. Get practice in and then you are prepared. I did that last year with hosted exchange transition clients, now it's like easy breasy cake walks for us.

I agree...(and added on)
Computer Repair
Business Support
Hosted Exchange
Google Apps
Online backup
Graphic design
Consulting
Web design
Phone repairs
App design
SEO
Social Media

Outside of app design, we are now adding on and implmenting all of these plus some to our current clients. Sales are good, no marketing. All current and new clients, It's awesome.

 

[codegreen]

It will never go away. A tablet isn't for someone wanting to do "serious" work on a machine or a computer.

The market will shift, it will change. That's life. The desktop and laptop are here to stay. There will always be those who simply can't use a tablet for something it's not.

"Never" is a pretty bold prediction. Can you seriously not image anything in the future that would displace desktops and laptops? Direct neural interfaces? Sub-dermal processors? Biological computing? The Singularity? The collapse of civilization as we know it?

"Yeah, the Pan-Galactic Hyperspace NeuroNet is great for entertainment, but when I need to get some real work done, I fire up Excel 5065 on my desktop."

 

[lsi]

"Never" is a pretty bold prediction. Can you seriously not image anything in the future that would displace desktops and laptops? Direct neural interfaces? Sub-dermal processors? Biological computing? The Singularity? The collapse of civilization as we know it?

"Yeah, the Pan-Galactic Hyperspace NeuroNet is great for entertainment, but when I need to get some real work done, I fire up Excel 5065 on my desktop."

I think we're getting a little too visionary here. I'm not predicting the future of technology, just forecasting what is realistic during the rest of my foreseeable future in IT. Sure eventually everything changes. But I certainly don't think it's going to happen in the next decade because of the tablet. Could I be wrong? Of course.

 

[callthatgirl]

Office 2013 about makes me want to puke. I hate it all!

 

[16k_zx81]

Yeah agree with LSI that this visionary stuff is tricky and all becomes a bit navel-gazey


I guess the interface question posed by nline caught my interest

so did the 'serious computing' statement by brandonkick, which also rattled around in my head


Ok so to address both questions - no - to nline - I see keyboard, screen and mouse being something that will be around for awhile in terms of interfacey bits on, to use brandonkick's term "serious computers"

As far as I have seen there isnt yet a better interface and - I could be wrong - but I think this will be around for awhile.

However - and this is where I think the pointy end of the equation is - what I do think will change will be the 'back end' or the 'computery' bit that does the processing.

And this is where the 'death of repair' doom and gloom analysis comes in, and not without a grain of truth therein:


Tackling brandonkick's notion of 'serious computing' with a question; if I plug a 'disposable device' into a monitor, bluetooth keyboard and mouse, and run office 365 on it with storage to cloud, is this a less 'serious' computer than a 'PC' doing the same job?

If you dont mind me tentatively answering my own question here, what I would put is; if it can do the same job, with the same interface, with the same or better reliability, then it is a 'serious computer' that is doing 'serious computing'.

Its not a huge stretch of the imagination, then, to see that 'tablet' or 'phone' or whatever portable computing device, if it can interface with 'serious' peripherals (keyboard, mouse, screen) and do 'serious computing' (ie run 'important' applications) is a viable replacement for a 'desktop' or a 'laptop'

And so those categories - 'computer' 'laptop' 'desktop' 'workstation' tablet' 'phone' 'device' etc - necessarily get messy/mixed up/interplaced if you think about the trajectory thats occurring, which is why I scoff a bit when people talk about the 'desktop' never dying.

It will die, because its arcane, loud, power hungry, unreliable, inefficient, and expensive.

It will be superceded by smaller, cheaper, more reliable devices.

The interface (keyboard, mouse, screen) will probably stay - for awhile at least - but the back end (the boxy, whirry, break-downy bit) is fast moving on to something else entirely.

 

[lan101]

I think desktops are still the most reliable device. The repairs are easier to do than tearing apart a tablet I think. I don't believe most people think about that when they purchase. They just go with the hottest thing out or most convenient portable device etc. I'm sure something will eventually replace them but it would probably be a ways away.

What is bad about office 2013? I only see 2007/2010 on most the computers I work on. Some still on 2003. I haven't personally even installed a 2013 yet.

 

[16k_zx81]

I think desktops are still the most reliable device. The repairs are easier to do than tearing apart a tablet I think. I don't believe most people think about that when they purchase. They just go with the hottest thing out or most convenient portable device etc. I'm sure something will eventually replace them but it would probably be a ways away.

What is bad about office 2013? I only see 2007/2010 on most the computers I work on. Some still on 2003. I haven't personally even installed a 2013 yet.

Again, things are heading away from 'repair' to 'replace'

Imagine an 'itunes' no-brainer cloud system and your dead 'device' just gets swapped out and connected to the net to download its applications and settings again (android and IOS both do this, *now*). No technical expertise required. Oh, and no reliance on a hard drive that will fail, break, corrupt, because the whole software-shebang can self-check and self-repair.

 

[lan101]

Again, things are heading away from 'repair' to 'replace'

Imagine an 'itunes' no-brainer cloud system and your dead 'device' just gets swapped out and connected to the net to download its applications and settings again (android and IOS both do this, *now*). No technical expertise required. Oh, and no reliance on a hard drive that will fail, break, corrupt, because the whole software-shebang can self-check and repair.

Yeah I wish Itunes would do this on pc honestly. I've worked for several people that have bought 100's some 1000's of songs on here with no backup when I first work for them. I believe they can redownload them, but still a PITA. But yes, I understand what you are getting at.

 

[joydivision]

I have known this for a while and in a feel stuck in a rut about it. I now need to decide what my exist strategy is. I did originally want to go into FE teaching but a few things put me off.

I am really now thinking towards either getting out of the IT industry completely or getting into software development. The only problem is I lack the business skills to market that side of things.

 

[gunslinger]

I have known this for a while and in a feel stuck in a rut about it. I now need to decide what my exist strategy is. I did originally want to go into FE teaching but a few things put me off.

I am really now thinking towards either getting out of the IT industry completely or getting into software development. The only problem is I lack the business skills to market that side of things.

Agreed. I have seen things heading in this direction for the last few years. Its becoming harder for the average person to justify a $150-200 fix on a $300 device. Everything is becoming disposable and companies like Google and Apple are at the forefront in pushing things in that direction. Apple (and other tablet makers) are making their devices harder and harder to fix, and Google wants everyone on a dumb terminal and living in a web browser.

I think there will be a good market for networking and programing skills for a few more years, but even that side of things is being simplified to the point the average high school kid can stumble their way through it.

I think it comes down to this. People want stone simple, easy to use, reliable, cheap devices and services and technology has gotten to the point its providing that. This is the exact opposite of what techs need to stay in business. Back in the 90's computer repair was like black magic. If you knew some simple networking and how to remove a virus with Norton you were set. People would flock to you and pay you what ever your price. These days a 10 year old can set up a new system and home network inside half an hour.

 

[joydivision]

Well I am currently saving up to go travelling round Southern France and Spain in the summer. During that break I will have a long think about things.

I will carry on this business for a few more years yet but will probably go part time within the next couple of years.

 

[ell]

I have known this for a while and in a feel stuck in a rut about it. I now need to decide what my exist strategy is. I did originally want to go into FE teaching but a few things put me off.

I am really now thinking towards either getting out of the IT industry completely or getting into software development. The only problem is I lack the business skills to market that side of things.

You and me both, I actually hate doing anything further than hard drive/memory replacements or keyboards for laptops, in fact I don't! I sell data transfer and setup more often, I don't care for the risk/reward that goes with power jack replacements and even replacing lcd's I'm ditching. No one wants to spend more than $200 tops for a repair now. I love a good virus, or windows puzzle, but with the cloud I do see everything going the way of itunes eventually. I still prefer backing up locally for now, and so do the majority of my customers, so we may have a little time with the hardware, but not long.

 

[Tony_Scarpelli]

PC break fix, It feels like a dying industry. I suspect this is what the buggy whip makers felt like after Henry Ford made the model T.

Last one to leave, please turn out the lights!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1nRpD8W8ag

 

[brock029]

Just to chime in, with virtualization and cloud computing becoming more prominent in business, plus Intel and amd stopping their desktop chipsets even in the business world desktops will be phased out soon.

 

[lan101]

Just to chime in, with virtualization and cloud computing becoming more prominent in business, plus Intel and amd stopping their desktop chipsets even in the business world desktops will be phased out soon.

This and if the end of the socket cpu happens I think will increase prices across the board for desktop computers, motherboard prices, etc. That may actually be a good thing for repair work.

http://www.extremetech.com/computin...end-of-socketed-cpus-the-end-of-upgradable-pc

http://www.anandtech.com/show/6685/...board-business-to-ramp-down-over-next-3-years