My take on the PC industry "dying" ?

[joydivision]

This and if the end of the socket cpu happens I think will increase prices across the board for desktop computers, motherboard prices, etc. That may actually be a good thing for repair work.

http://www.extremetech.com/computin...end-of-socketed-cpus-the-end-of-upgradable-pc

http://www.anandtech.com/show/6685/...board-business-to-ramp-down-over-next-3-years

No because people will just replace them with a none PC.

 

[lan101]

No because people will just replace them with a none PC.

If thats how it plays out, hopefully there will still continue to be things techs can do. I like transferring data, setting up new computer, talking with the customer while doing that etc. I in fact like that better than just removing viruses and taking it back to them. One I make more money, and two I get to speak with the customer a little more. Sometimes you don't want to speak with them for long , but still it gives upsell opportunities etc.

As far as the cloud goes with data transfers, I still don't see how that's going to be viable in my area for a long time because of the crappy internet connections. We have time warner cable in most of the towns now, and that is really good most of the time, but a lot of people still use the crappier dsl connections, etc. So until the $25-30 dollar dsl connections get much better, I just don't see cloud being viable for a lot of things.

Now folks in big cities with a lot more options, I can see the cloud becoming a lot more relevant very soon.

 

[16k_zx81]

If thats how it plays out, hopefully there will still continue to be things techs can do. I like transferring data, setting up new computer,

As far as the cloud goes with data transfers, I still don't see how that's going to be viable in my area for a long time because of the crappy internet connections. We have time warner cable in most of the towns now, and that is really good most of the time, but a lot of people still use the crappier dsl connections.

1. When was the last time a customer *paid* you to set up an iPad? Think that, but on a bigger scale

2. Not sure what part of the world you are in' but are you following global developments in high speed broadband? Not sure you are considering just how much difference wide-distribution optic fibre will make

 

[Freedom PC Solutions]

I know a lot of people hate typing on the on screen keyboards. Sure there is blue tooth but people in my area don't want to spend that kind of money. I mean blue tooth verses regular keyboard pricing.

I also don't see mainstream games being played on tablets. Diablo 3, COD, Half-life etc cannot be played on these devices. You need a desktop or good laptop to run them. If they put the games on the cloud you would need some serious bandwidth to play against others via death match or MMORPG. I can't see PC gaming disappearing anytime soon and that means desktops and laptops will still be around for quite sometime.

Storage is also a factor. I can fit terabytes of data on my systems but the largest Ipad (non expandable mind you) memory option is 128 GB. Yeah, there is the cloud but then you have to pay a monthly fee instead of buying a hard drive and being done with it.

 

[16k_zx81]

I know a lot of people hate typing on the on screen keyboards. Sure there is blue tooth but people in my area don't want to spend that kind of money. I mean blue tooth verses regular keyboard pricing.

I also don't see mainstream games being played on tablets. Diablo 3, COD, Half-life etc cannot be played on these devices. You need a desktop or good laptop to run them. If they put the games on the cloud you would need some serious bandwidth to play against others via death match or MMORPG. I can't see PC gaming disappearing anytime soon and that means desktops and laptops will still be around for quite sometime.

Storage is also a factor. I can fit terabytes of data on my systems but the largest Ipad (non expandable mind you) memory option is 128 GB. Yeah, there is the cloud but then you have to pay a monthly fee instead of buying a hard drive and being done with it.

What percentage of your business are PC gamers?

My experience is that they are generally pretty techy and often will do their own builds and maintenance. The vast majority of machines I work on are laptops and tablets and the occasional desktop. "Gamers" are hardly going to keep me running, I think. I probably get in about 1 gaming box a month out of an average of roughly 60 repairs p/m.

Not sure what difference THIS will make to the gaming scene, but it is I think an interesting development

 

[brock029]

What percentage of your business are PC gamers?

My experience is that they are generally pretty techy and often will do their own builds and maintenance. The vast majority of machines I work on are laptops and tablets and the occasional desktop. "Gamers" are hardly going to keep me running, I think. I probably get in about 1 gaming box a month out of an average of roughly 60 repairs p/m.

Not sure what difference THIS will make to the gaming scene, but it is I think an interesting development

I was disappointed with the steam box. Linux based and $1000+ I'll pass. The problems with steam for linux is 1) All of the games I own I can play 3 of them. 2) As a linux user for many years many people have begged for steam for years and not until gabe gets mad at Microsoft does he make it while steam for mac has been out for 3 years and steam linux users are already at the same amount of users as steam for mac users. /rant over.

I would hate to see pc gaming go but if the socketed CPU goes so does pc gaming. No upgrading path and then the price of building vs buying become even.

 

[lan101]

1. When was the last time a customer *paid* you to set up an iPad? Think that, but on a bigger scale

2. Not sure what part of the world you are in' but are you following global developments in high speed broadband? Not sure you are considering just how much difference wide-distribution optic fibre will make

I've set up some ipads. Not tons of them, but some. Mostly older folks that just wanted to make sure they had it right, and taught some things.

I'm in the rural US. Maybe I haven't kept up with wide distribution of fiber. Even so if it was here 10 years from now in my area, I would be surprised. I would be happy though lol.

 

[gunslinger]

Pc gamers are a very, very small % of computer users. MOST gaming takes place on consoles. Also as 16k_zx81 said they are usually pretty techy and will do their own builds and maintenance.

 

[brandonkick]

so did the 'serious computing' statement by brandonkick, which also rattled around in my head.

As far as I have seen there isnt yet a better interface and - I could be wrong - but I think this will be around for awhile.

However - and this is where I think the pointy end of the equation is - what I do think will change will be the 'back end' or the 'computery' bit that does the processing.

And this is where the 'death of repair' doom and gloom analysis comes in, and not without a grain of truth therein:


Tackling brandonkick's notion of 'serious computing' with a question; if I plug a 'disposable device' into a monitor, bluetooth keyboard and mouse, and run office 365 on it with storage to cloud, is this a less 'serious' computer than a 'PC' doing the same job?

If you dont mind me tentatively answering my own question here, what I would put is; if it can do the same job, with the same interface, with the same or better reliability, then it is a 'serious computer' that is doing 'serious computing'.

Its not a huge stretch of the imagination, then, to see that 'tablet' or 'phone' or whatever portable computing device, if it can interface with 'serious' peripherals (keyboard, mouse, screen) and do 'serious computing' (ie run 'important' applications) is a viable replacement for a 'desktop' or a 'laptop'

And so those categories - 'computer' 'laptop' 'desktop' 'workstation' tablet' 'phone' 'device' etc - necessarily get messy/mixed up/interplaced if you think about the trajectory thats occurring, which is why I scoff a bit when people talk about the 'desktop' never dying.

It will die, because its arcane, loud, power hungry, unreliable, inefficient, and expensive.

It will be superceded by smaller, cheaper, more reliable devices.

The interface (keyboard, mouse, screen) will probably stay - for awhile at least - but the back end (the boxy, whirry, break-downy bit) is fast moving on to something else entirely.

I used the term "serious work", and not actually "serious computer" but lets go with it. First off, I don't consider microsoft office "serious work". I consider the ability to run multiple programs and have multiple browsers/tabs open at the same time with little to no slowdown. The desktop simply offers MUCH more power for the dollar then a tablet does. Put a iPad 4 up against any $500 budget build PC and the iPad simply won't be able to keep up.

Why buy an iPad, then extra devices to make it function like a PC (with much less performance). I guess my "central idea" was that the iPad doesn't represent the amount of power you can get in desktop/laptop hardware for the same many.

Smaller parts and newer / smaller technology cost more money. The touch screen isn't oriented to anyone but the "casual" audience using it mostly for entertainment.

Will desktops NEVER go away? Sure they will. How long from now is the question, and the answer isn't any time soon.

As far as the break/fix shift. Computers aren't cheap enough to want to throw yours away and want to buy a new one yet. But the user will probably end up bringing both the old and new machines in for you so that you can "make the new one like the old one, with their data and settings and preferences". By the time they pay for that, they shouldn't be far from fixing the old PC but still a bit away from the price of a new machine. I think your going to need to see $200 machines (which aren't garbage) before the break/fix model really starts to fade away.

Pc gamers are a very, very small % of computer users. MOST gaming takes place on consoles. Also as 16k_zx81 said they are usually pretty techy and will do their own builds and maintenance.

Gamers are not as small of a percentage of the PC user base as you think. LOTS of people play games on PC and I maintain that it's one of the best reasons that windows still holds the market share that it does. Simply that many MANY games require windows libraries and won't run at all in most cases or wont run that well via emulation in linux.

Linux has full blown GUI's, and many distro's have GUI's that function, IMO, as good or better then that of windows. I think the name intimidates people, they think of linux and a monochrome command prompt enters their brain. That or they can't run the software that want to run. Most of which, IMO, are computer games due to lack of certain software support.

I would agree that a decent amount of gamers are pretty tech inclined. Maybe not PRO's but good enough to do a GPU upgrade or something like that.

 

[gunslinger]

Gamers are not as small of a percentage of the PC user base as you think.

Relative to how many PC users there are I think they are a small percentage. Lets look at some numbers for a sec.


Call of Duty: Black Ops U.S. platform sales


Total US sales in November – 8.4m units

Xbox 360 – 4.9m units

PS3 – 3.1m units

DS, Wii and PC – 400K units


Now if you take the DS and Wii out what you are left with is less than 400k on the PC and 8 million on the consol. Far more people game on the console than the PC. Just because its big to us geeks does not make it popular. Your and my idea of a "high end" system is quite different than most people who buy what ever PC is on sale at Walmart.

 

[16k_zx81]

I used the term "serious work", and not actually "serious computer" but lets go with it. First off, I don't consider microsoft office "serious work". I consider the ability to run multiple programs and have multiple browsers/tabs open at the same time with little to no slowdown. The desktop simply offers MUCH more power for the dollar then a tablet does. Put a iPad 4 up against any $500 budget build PC and the iPad simply won't be able to keep up.

Why buy an iPad, then extra devices to make it function like a PC (with much less performance). I guess my "central idea" was that the iPad doesn't represent the amount of power you can get in desktop/laptop hardware for the same many.

Smaller parts and newer / smaller technology cost more money. The touch screen isn't oriented to anyone but the "casual" audience using it mostly for entertainment.

Will desktops NEVER go away? Sure they will. How long from now is the question, and the answer isn't any time soon.

As far as the break/fix shift. Computers aren't cheap enough to want to throw yours away and want to buy a new one yet. But the user will probably end up bringing both the old and new machines in for you so that you can "make the new one like the old one, with their data and settings and preferences". By the time they pay for that, they shouldn't be far from fixing the old PC but still a bit away from the price of a new machine. I think your going to need to see $200 machines (which aren't garbage) before the break/fix model really starts to fade away.

Gamers are not as small of a percentage of the PC user base as you think. LOTS of people play games on PC and I maintain that it's one of the best reasons that windows still holds the market share that it does. Simply that many MANY games require windows libraries and won't run at all in most cases or wont run that well via emulation in linux.

Linux has full blown GUI's, and many distro's have GUI's that function, IMO, as good or better then that of windows. I think the name intimidates people, they think of linux and a monochrome command prompt enters their brain. That or they can't run the software that want to run. Most of which, IMO, are computer games due to lack of certain software support.

I would agree that a decent amount of gamers are pretty tech inclined. Maybe not PRO's but good enough to do a GPU upgrade or something like that.

I apologise for misquoting you, but Im not sure that really alters the core of the argument.

You seem to have missed some of what I have said, and appear to be arguing the case for the current state of play, not the trajectory of the industry, which is the topic of the thread

I think perhaps you are not following developments in ARM and other portable hardware? (your comment about "smaller devices cost more money") doesnt seem to consider, in terms of current availability and trends, what we will be seeing in the next 12-24 months.

Anyone can go out right now and buy a quad core tablet with 2gb ram for just over $200.

Take Moore's Law, that hardware spec, and that price, and think about it.

Not capable of doing 'serious work'? (your own definition: multiple apps and browser tabs). Sorry. But they are. Right now. Plug the HDMI into a 24" and grab bluetooth keyboard & mouse.

How much "power" do you reckon the average end-user needs to do email, web, casual gaming, and the occasional bit of word processing? Sorry, but most end users couldnt give a toss if its a celeron or a core i7 - or ARM, for that matter - as long as it gets the job done.

If its cheap, and it works, thats where the market will go. People will follow the smart buying decisions, (is it fit for purpose?, is it cost effective?).

If you are getting bucket loads of work from gamers, then good luck to you. If you see them sustaining your business in a couple of years time because "games require windows libraries" then I really hope they do.

By the way, you might be interested to see some video of gaming on a cheap (sub-$200) tablets. Mali400

Again, not today, maybe, but these are very powerful devices for very few dollars, and are starting to offer gaming experiences that will, inevitably, compete with "pc's". They also offer the significant advantages of being able to play on couch, bed or at a desk, and to be able to take your games with you wherever you go. Oh, and if you drop it, and it breaks, you can just go out and buy a new one, which, if 12 months have elapsed since you bought it, will be even quicker and better spec'd.

Jim

 

[Pclink]

Find a market niche, like SAP or Microsoft Dynamics

I really do think that for the most part PC/Laptop repair is dying. It's not really worth it to fix anymore, and most people can find videos online to replace a cracked laptop screen if they wanted to save a few bucks. Anyways, I started out as primarily residential repair... big mistake. Residential repair is a one time fix, maybe repeat if they have more problems and you do a great job, but even then it's not a good business model to count on possible calls. I realized this a bit too late in the game and started studying up on Server skills, took some training, and got a great job. I still do Web Design and SEO on the side, and some remote support, but even then I'm thinking on stopping remote support. Most residential clients don't want to do anything by the hour, it's all flat rate.

Businesses however can justify paying hourly because it costs them when things are down. They can also justify paying MSP rates to keep it from going down. So if you're a residential only kind of shop you may seriously want to consider upping your skill sets for Servers/Networks, and you could probably get away with just knowing the Windows side of things. Most businesses run Windows for servers.

Look for business line of applications and go for that as a niche could be beneficial too if you already know servers/networks but want to expand. SAP for example, it's complex, it's an ERP, and costs lots of money to maintain, and millions of businesses use it world wide, so it's not "dying". Microsoft Dynamics is an other niche to get in for the ERP side of things. This does require a big learning curve, but just doing PC repair won't pay the bills in the long run. Just my 2 cents

 

[brock029]

I apologise for misquoting you, but Im not sure that really alters the core of the argument.

You seem to have missed some of what I have said, and appear to be arguing the case for the current state of play, not the trajectory of the industry, which is the topic of the thread

I think perhaps you are not following developments in ARM and other portable hardware? (your comment about "smaller devices cost more money") doesnt seem to consider, in terms of current availability and trends, what we will be seeing in the next 12-24 months.

Anyone can go out right now and buy a quad core tablet with 2gb ram for just over $200.

Take Moore's Law, that hardware spec, and that price, and think about it.

Not capable of doing 'serious work'? (your own definition: multiple apps and browser tabs). Sorry. But they are. Right now. Plug the HDMI into a 24" and grab bluetooth keyboard & mouse.

How much "power" do you reckon the average end-user needs to do email, web, casual gaming, and the occasional bit of word processing? Sorry, but most end users couldnt give a toss if its a celeron or a core i7 - or ARM, for that matter - as long as it gets the job done.

If its cheap, and it works, thats where the market will go. People will follow the smart buying decisions, (is it fit for purpose?, is it cost effective?).

If you are getting bucket loads of work from gamers, then good luck to you. If you see them sustaining your business in a couple of years time because "games require windows libraries" then I really hope they do.

By the way, you might be interested to see some video of gaming on a cheap (sub-$200) tablets. Mali400

Again, not today, maybe, but these are very powerful devices for very few dollars, and are starting to offer gaming experiences that will, inevitably, compete with "pc's". They also offer the significant advantages of being able to play on couch, bed or at a desk, and to be able to take your games with you wherever you go. Oh, and if you drop it, and it breaks, you can just go out and buy a new one, which, if 12 months have elapsed since you bought it, will be even quicker and better spec'd.

Jim

100% correct. Smartphones today pack more power then my first self built full atx desktop did 7 years ago. If you look at it, most tablets now have quad core over 1ghz processors and a few gigs of ram. Cheap $300 desktops and laptops ship with lessor specs and are out performed by tablets. If I could afford one I would buy a Dell streak with a dock to replace my laptop and my desktop for working. Still keep my gaming desktop though.

But Moore's law is already being stretched and will soon be wrong until we can find something better then silicon. That's why we have multicore processors instead of 20ghz processors right now.

 

[16k_zx81]

100% correct. Smartphones today pack more power then my first self built full atx desktop did 7 years ago. If you look at it, most tablets now have quad core over 1ghz processors and a few gigs of ram. Cheap $300 desktops and laptops ship with lessor specs and are out performed by tablets. If I could afford one I would buy a Dell streak with a dock to replace my laptop and my desktop for working. Still keep my gaming desktop though.

But Moore's law is already being stretched and will soon be wrong until we can find something better then silicon. That's why we have multicore processors instead of 20ghz processors right now.

Your Avatar is not working. Im not sure whether I should be relieved?

Yeah, Im not really quoting Moore's law as any kind of "literal" sense - that would be stupid. I think Im trying to use it as a more general, known, reference to "hardware progression", which, even though it does not apply in a 'mathematical' sense to Moore's proposal, is an impinging reality, nonetheless.

.

 

[Freedom PC Solutions]

I am not sure what percentage. The only way I realize is when I am in the start menu and I see the games or companies I recognize. Some older folks probably have kids who play them. Now when you say "gamer box" I think of a huge tower all pimped out with lights and fans, maybe water cooled. Or even a motorized arm that comes out and puts your drink to your mouth so you don't have to take your eyes off the screen. Now those I do not get many of.

Gunslinger posted the numbers on sales. I have to say that it surprised me at first. After thinking about it however, I firmly believe the lack of pc game sales is do to piracy. After all, the Anti piracy people had been saying that piracy costs many millions of dollars in losses. It is so easy to download games from torrents and sharing sites but not so easy to pirate console games. So people are forced to purchase PS3 and Xbox games.

Anyway, we shall see soon enough where the future leads us.

What percentage of your business are PC gamers?

My experience is that they are generally pretty techy and often will do their own builds and maintenance. The vast majority of machines I work on are laptops and tablets and the occasional desktop. "Gamers" are hardly going to keep me running, I think. I probably get in about 1 gaming box a month out of an average of roughly 60 repairs p/m.

Not sure what difference THIS will make to the gaming scene, but it is I think an interesting development

 

[compnet]

10% correct. Smartphones today pack more power then my first self built full atx desktop did 7 years ago. If you look at it, most tablets now have quad core over 1ghz processors and a few gigs of ram. Cheap $300 desktops and laptops ship with lessor specs and are out performed by tablets. If I could afford one I would buy a Dell streak with a dock to replace my laptop and my desktop for working. Still keep my gaming desktop though.

But Moore's law is already being stretched and will soon be wrong until we can find something better then silicon. That's why we have multicore processors instead of 20ghz processors right now.

Huh? My 8 year old dell runs games and emulators my s3 can't.

Moores law is already off, you are correct. We can't pack that many more transistors and heat is becoming a huge issue. You can barely overclock ivy bridge even on water cooling. Fanless tablets can't compete.

Residential break fix of desktops and laptops will see a slow decline, but business needs us more thank ever, and there will be a wide range of new opportunities.

Failure to adapt will doom you no matter what industry you are in.

 

[brandonkick]

I apologise for misquoting you, but Im not sure that really alters the core of the argument.

You seem to have missed some of what I have said, and appear to be arguing the case for the current state of play, not the trajectory of the industry, which is the topic of the thread

I think perhaps you are not following developments in ARM and other portable hardware? (your comment about "smaller devices cost more money") doesnt seem to consider, in terms of current availability and trends, what we will be seeing in the next 12-24 months.

Anyone can go out right now and buy a quad core tablet with 2gb ram for just over $200.

Take Moore's Law, that hardware spec, and that price, and think about it.

Not capable of doing 'serious work'? (your own definition: multiple apps and browser tabs). Sorry. But they are. Right now. Plug the HDMI into a 24" and grab bluetooth keyboard & mouse.

How much "power" do you reckon the average end-user needs to do email, web, casual gaming, and the occasional bit of word processing? Sorry, but most end users couldnt give a toss if its a celeron or a core i7 - or ARM, for that matter - as long as it gets the job done.

If its cheap, and it works, thats where the market will go. People will follow the smart buying decisions, (is it fit for purpose?, is it cost effective?).

If you are getting bucket loads of work from gamers, then good luck to you. If you see them sustaining your business in a couple of years time because "games require windows libraries" then I really hope they do.

By the way, you might be interested to see some video of gaming on a cheap (sub-$200) tablets. Mali400

Again, not today, maybe, but these are very powerful devices for very few dollars, and are starting to offer gaming experiences that will, inevitably, compete with "pc's". They also offer the significant advantages of being able to play on couch, bed or at a desk, and to be able to take your games with you wherever you go. Oh, and if you drop it, and it breaks, you can just go out and buy a new one, which, if 12 months have elapsed since you bought it, will be even quicker and better spec'd.

Jim

Those tablets have come a long way, but they are no replacement for an "average" user. Think about how much storage space you would need in a tablet. I would assume most people have gotten used to 500+ GB drives. They won't want to go back down to 16GB or pay $300 for a bigger solid state drive.

I also don't think I ever used the term "average user". I guess I used the term "serious user" or "serious computer work" but what I meant was basically anyone not screwing around with the computer using it to watch stupid harlem shake videos on youtube.

In the "future" yes, the desktop/laptop will go away I'm pretty sure or evolve. What time frame do I place that "future" in. Not any time really soon. It's years and years off.

 

[skdmaster]

Tablets and phones are a convenience item - check and send a quick email, surf, etc. The residential market is slowing because people are using other devices to do the more common tasks with but still fall back to a desktop/laptop to do other work that is not suited for a tablet or phone. Are the days of 20 systems coming in a day for virus infection gone - most likely. If you only do residential work then you have to adapt into other areas such as tablet repairs.

People keep also saying it is not worth fixing a PC when they can go out and buy another for a couple hundred dollars more. I see time and time again a customer says I can go out and just replace it - but you need to make them think about having to find the software they are using to reload, what about the existing data (pics, docs, etc) on the system, the setup in the house with printers and networks. There is a lot more to it then just replacing it and once you put it into perspective with a customer they see the big picture - other times yes a system should be just out right replaced because of age but again there is opportunity to transfer data, prep the system, or setup in the home.

From the business side I have seen nothing but huge growth in the last few months but again I have been educating my clients - I deal with several medical offices and restaurants. With the end of XP next year this is the time they have to upgrade. You have PCI compliance and HIPAA compliance that both mandate that they have to upgrade to stay compliant so there is a huge market. You also have Server 2013 that goes EOL in 2 years so again you have to keep your clients up to date on these changes and how it applies to them.

 

[brock029]

Just to add a little more. The JCPennys by my house is now using iPhones instead of a pos.

And everyone talking about pc gaming what about the razr edge pro http://www.razerzone.com/gaming-systems/razer-edge-pro expensive but pretty cool. I-7 processor, 8gb of ram, Nvidia 640m, close to the same performance of my desktop.

 

[Freedom PC Solutions]

And everyone talking about pc gaming what about the razr edge pro http://www.razerzone.com/gaming-systems/razer-edge-pro expensive but pretty cool. I-7 processor, 8gb of ram, Nvidia 640m, close to the same performance of my desktop.

I gotta say, that is pretty sweet. I can't enjoy games on a small screen though. My gaming pc has a 22 inch monitor and I want to go even bigger. If I get it fixed, I will be putting up my 47 inch plasma tv. Of course my wife thinks I am crazy.