The End of the Windows PC is Near

[andcorptech]

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I honestly hope I am wrong. But the writing is on the wall.

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I dont think your wrong about the change coming, but I dont think its all doom and gloom. There will always be technically inept people who need help. All this does is change how we help them.

Take a good look at the "general" population (ie outside the tech savvy community) . My observation is that while we have these powerful tools and devices, people are actually getting dumber.

You can dismiss this all you like but i have people paying me to setup email on their iphones and connecting their tablets to wifi ( which the wifi is often already setup so they are litteraly paying me to enter a password) . They do this because they are inept and scared of technology. These people arent going anywhere soon.

 

[Cambridge PC Support]

Yep, we love the technically inept. They'll always be there for us

And I do like the look of that HTC One X - my contract is up in May

 

[sassenach]

From the environment I'm in at present, users are becoming much less capable of problem solving. From server to smartphone (the object being a lot smarter than the user normally), if it doesn't work as expected a panic sets in, that renders the user totally incapable of rational thought.

Support and technical capability will always be needed in one form or another but I think there will be a huge divergence in skill sets required between enterprise, large business, small business and residential.

Residential users are far more likely to be the throw away society than business users.

 

[Wheelie]

It's not just me that sees the writing on the wall. The future for Windows next operating system will be more smart phone/tablet-like. The user will be fenced in creating a better experience (fewer if any crashes). Welcome to the new "Windows Store" too. It opened yesterday (The Windows Store will be the only means of distributing Metro-style apps to users; the official reason is to allow Microsoft to scan apps for security flaws and malware). The whole PC world is migrating toward the smart phone/tablet experience. I suspect Win 8 will eliminate about 1/2 of the traditional PC repairs in my market

Smartphones Have Led, and Desktops Will Follow

"... computers are suddenly getting more phonelike ..."

"On Wednesday, Microsoft took the wraps off its latest operating system for computers and tablets, Windows 8, which mimics the look and feel of the company’s new software for phones."

"“All of the major innovation for PCs is coming from the mobile phone,” said Tim Coulling, an analyst at the research firm Canalys."

“Microsoft can’t compete with Apple using the old version of Windows, so they had to redesign from the ground up,” said Chetan Sharma, an independent wireless analyst." Kiss Windows as we know it goodby!

“The PC is less relevant, and that means so is Windows,” said Michael Gartenberg, an industry analyst with Gartner. “Microsoft has to think about what that means for their future.”

"Apple started its Mac App Store over a year ago; Microsoft opened what it calls the Windows Store on Wednesday"

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[lan101]

I wonder how the future will effect open source software availability with the new app stores and all that great stuff.

 

[Wheelie]

I wonder how the future will effect open source software availability with the new app stores and all that great stuff.

Open source stuff will be there I am sure. They'll have free apps in the Windows store but they be scrutinized for security problems and viruses before release.

If you want stuff outside the store you'll probably be able to do just like the Android world where you can check the "Unknown Sources" box to allow installation of non-market apps. But you and I both know 99% of consumer-America won't do that because the risks are just too high.

The Apple Store, Android Market, and Windows Store will keep viruses and malware off of devices nearly 100%. That will take a 10% to 15% chunk of my business right there.

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[Wheelie]

The introduction of the "Windows Store" will significantly reduce the need for computer repair under Windows 8.

 

[Wheelie]

And back to my very first post 1 year and 4 months ago where I said: "Android could also substantially kill the Windows OS."

It has now essentially accomplished that. That transition is being implemented now with the release of Windows 8 Beta. Android, and iOS have forced Microsoft to come up with Windows 8 just to be able to remain in the market place. Win 8 will embody all the features of Android and iOS. With their introduction, and now that Win 8 is headed for the desktop/laptop worlds, the OS's with their associated app stores could kill 1/2 of the desktop/laptop computer repair business as we now know it in 3 to 5 years as Windows XP, Vista, and 7 PC's are retired. Furthermore, if this trend also spells the demise of the rotating hard disk it will put even further pressure on our repair business.

At that point there will be nothing left but setting up wireless networks and connecting printers as PC's will likely become disposable and unserviceable. When the mobile ISP's finally get their broadband networks to maturity (> 20Mbps Internet) we will have far fewer Wireless networks to install because many residential customers will have the option to abandon cable & DSL. I can already wirelessly tether a 5 to 8 Mbps Internet connection in my home with my T-Mobile/Google G2 Phone.

All this is with respect to residential and most small businesses (less than 10 employees). The corporate world will move much slower but most of us get little if any of that business. The good place to target going forward will be businesses that cannot abandon Windows XP/Vista/7 type PC's. I suspect they will still be around in 5 years as will the same machines for certain gamers (although that market could get lobotomized and moved to Win 8 too?).

It will be interesting to get a copy of Windows 8 Beta loaded and running which I hope to do soon.

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[tankman1989]

I just read a good article about the future of desktops and laptops on TechRepublic. Here is a link if anyone is interested:
http://www.techrepublic.com/forum/discussions/102-389004?tag=discussion-asset-thread

 

[Wheelie]

The unfortunate trend that is coming is that Windows 8 will be designed for installation on (and will come on) most Best Buy type end-user retail residential laptops and desktops which, as every OS released before, will end support and availability of Windows XP, Vista, and 7. Will will it end? Probably quite a ways down the road for Windows 7 in the business environment. But this certainly heralds the end of the era for those problematic and buggy OS's in residential markets. During this downward closing trend expect to see our business levels decline with it. And here's why:

Problem #1:
Since Windows 8 will be more like smart phone and tablet operating systems - it will "fence in" the customer preventing them from screwing up the device much as Android and iOS have done so beautifully. This will likely end phone calls to us because of problems like my signature below shows.

Problem #2:
99.99% of all programs and apps of the future for the Windows 8 OS will likely come through (or with the approval of) the "Windows Store". The Windows Store (which opened this past Wednesday) is like the "Apple Store" and the "Android Market". This, along with the new Windows 8 Kill Switch, will spell the end of viruses and malware (as well as buggy and failure-prone software).

Problem #3:
The list of powerful and large companies trying to move the end user toward "the cloud" will "force" them there (the retail end user will not have much choice but to go). If this occurs it is likely to end the existence of the rotating hard disk in end user retail desktop and laptop PC's as it has done in smart phones and tablets. 32 GB of non-volatile RAM will suffice for retail end users and that is all you will find in homes throughout America.

Summary:
Right now I am not sure where this leaves us "computer repair techs" but I have to admit it does not look good. End user retail home-based PC's are being forced into this direction and this trend cannot be stopped in my opinion. This trend (if it occurs) will likely decimate our businesses.



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[lan101]

I can definitely see where wheelie is going with this discussion. I do believe sooner than later, we will not be able to make much money if any on parts. I believe its going to come down to support at least for the residential market. I have a lot of people I work for that have higher tech cell phones than I have, but they have no clue how to use them effectively.

As someone else said, I've helped set up email on phones. I've showed people how to connect to the their wifi network etc. As far as windows 8 goes, I also see support as being the best money maker for us. The majority of my business now is onsite, and I believe that is going to continue to be important in the future. It's much easier to go to someone's house and show them how to get everything set up. That way in the end they are happy and I am happy.

I also live in a pretty rural area where I work in about 8 different small towns with anywhere from 1000-8000 people in the different towns. So for me, this works pretty well and most people are decent. In the cities though, obviously a lot more dangerous and I would be more skeptical of doing things onsite.

 

[waynerp]

I've just got round to reading this thread, allbeit it over 1 year old.
My business is still in its infancy as i started out last Novemeber.
To be honest i am quite excited about the future. The simple solution is that we have to adapt to new technology or quite simply die!
Sure software and the tech that comes with it will / and is becomming easier to use, but in my short experience i have found that the vast majority of residential users just 'expect' it to work whatever it is. i have had so many jobs setting up wifi and email on iphones. it only takes missing a '.' or not following the instructions to the letter, and your average user is stuck. I had a lady 2 weeks ago who couldn't set up her email on her iphone and she said to me " i just expect it to work, it shouldn't go wrong, it's an iphone"
The plain fact is the the week link in technology is the human that uses it, and we all mess up at some point, thats when we get a call.
I'm on run 1 of the ladder of my career and knowledge of this industry, and i am trying to put my fingers in as many pies as possible, that means learning everything i possibly can, from tablet repair, mobile phones, web hosting, 'cloud backup' and anything else that is the buzz word of the month. i feel that we are at the point of the house / home truely becoming networked, which means there are a lot more products that could fall into our domain, such as projectors and TV's. Just a thought!!

 

[Wheelie]

Dell Buys Wyse to Continue Evolution to "Not Really a PC Company"

"Richard Stiennon, chief research analyst with IT-Harvest, points out, though, that Dell sees the proverbial writing on the wall, and it’s making moves necessary to compete tomorrow, as well as today. “Dell is obviously aware of the climate change coming to the PC market as mobile devices and cloud services replace traditional desktops and laptops running heavy OSs and apps.”

"Is Dell a “PC company”? Yes. I think Dell is fairly synonymous with PCs. But, Dell recognizes that PCs as we know them may be a dying breed, and it is working to broaden the definition of its brand so that when you think of Dell, you think of more than just PCs."

http://www.pcworld.com/businesscent...nue_evolution_to_not_really_a_pc_company.html

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[Wheelie]

With the botched release of Windows 8 the end is getting nearer. PC makers are seeing big drops in profits. Intel is making big changes in products.

I started this thread two years ago when I saw that the computer trend was toward, smaller, faster, less troublesome OS's. Since then we see Microsoft is in an epic mid-stroke melt-down (they posted their first ever quarterly loss in June) Windows 8 is likely a flop, Intel has fallen out of favor on Wall Street primarily because of decline in personal computer sales as more people become enamored with smartphones and tablets, PC makers like Dell & HP are seeing huge downward trends in sales & profits, PC sales in Europe are off 15% this quarter, and Qualcomm surpasses Intel as most valuable chip firm.

Personally? I hate this trend. Don't get me wrong ... I love tablets and smart phones but I make my living off repairing PC's

Dell, HP Earnings Expected to Herald the End of PC Era

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[TechguyUK]

You may be right on the residential side, the move is clearly towards smartphones, tablets and generally easier to use less troublesome [disposable?] hardware and OS's...BUT...I really don't see this happening in the business sector anytime soon which are heavily into desktop and server hardware.

What we will probably see is the business environment migrate into the 'cloud' (I hate that term!) and the resultant switch to more of a thin client or even a virtual desktop - but from where I sit there is still some reluctance for business to 'trust' having all their business apps/data on the end of a network link and in a remote data center somewhere managed by a 3rd party - too much loss of control.

 

[ComputerPro]

Its been said before.

If that were totally true then large companies with LOTS of money and research power like Apple, Microsoft etc.. wouldn't make any desktop related things. They would focus all their efforts on the phone space.

We have iPhones, iPads in our house, but I am typing this in my office on my PC. Why is that? Because the experience is much, much better. They all have their place. I wouldn't carry my desktop to the coffee shop unless there were no laptops. I wouldn't walk down the street and check my email on a laptop, unless there were no smartphones. A smartphone or 'pocket device' isn't meant to replace the PC, its meant to be just what it is.
I think tech has finally matured thats all.

Think about TV's. The same could be said about them. No more TV's because we can watch Netflix etc on tablets, smartphones, laptops etc. But who would actually want to sit down after a hard days work and whip out their smartphone to watch a full length feature movie? It would certainly play fine but the experience would be less than stellar.

The truth is smartphones and tablets are coming into their own space. Like bicycles, automobiles and airplanes. You could say the auto or airplane would most certainly wipe out primitive pedal bicycles lol. But yet the bicycle industry is more than fine because the usage is different, its a different tool is all. All are a type of vehicle, but the desired application is much different. And just like phones and computers, you could get by with only one but most families have bicycles and autos and they co-exist fine.

My 2 cents.

Terry

 

[TechguyUK]

Very true....but as we're thinking about TV's, how many TV repair companies are there out there now? Around me (a medium sized city), I know of only two, 10 years ago I'm sure there were many more.

The problem for residential repair companies is that consumer tech is now largely seen as disposable....if it breaks it's simply thrown it away, its then an excuse to the go buy the latest and greatest new device.

 

[ell]

Very true....but as we're thinking about TV's, how many TV repair companies are there out there now? Around me (a medium sized city), I know of only two, 10 years ago I'm sure there were many more.

The problem for residential repair companies is that consumer tech is now largely seen as disposable....if it breaks it's simply thrown it away, its then an excuse to the go buy the latest and greatest new device.

very true, but not exactly the same, pc's are still personalized to the users liking with their data, programs, settings, unfortunately the cloud biz will eventually take care of that I'm sure. My daughter just got her samsung 10" tablet to replace her aging compaq laptop and was thrilled how quickly she could just log into her google acct and all her stuff was just there. Customers want everything back and fast, and they don't want to do it themselves, they don't just want to by new, some do but the majority of my customers still don't. They are still willing to pay the get the virus off or get the hosed windows fixed, but big ticket hardware fixes are fading fast.

 

[altrenda]

A lot of people don't think things are repairable these days. They seem surprised when I say we can replace the screen, hard drive, keyboard, or power jack on a computer.

There is a a guy near my house who is a true repairman, fixes toasters, vacuums, power tools, TVs, whatever. He has more business than he knows what to do with, because people know he's there and what he can do.

some things aren't worth fixing, like Wal Mart computers, but there are still people that buy higher end electronics that would rather have them fixed than replaced.

 

[hightechrex]

What??? I cant believe this has so many pages

This honestly makes no sense to me and the amount of people who are actually buying into this is suprising.

Take smartphones for example. All a smartphone is a tablet with a small screen and a few extra parts. Tablets and smartphones will never overtake laptops and desktops because they are basically cannibalizing each other. Tablets are becoming laptops with keyboard attachments and vice versa. Technology is advancing in parallel and eventually they will all meet up at a singular point. In fact they are already at that point. Smartphones are becoming wannabe tablets... tablets are becoming wannabe smartphones and laptops... laptops are becoming wannabe tablets... desktops are becoming all in ones (which btw are just big ass tablets with a stand). TVs are becoming super oversized tablets with extra connections (smart tvs).

And everyone's argument is "oh the cloud is making laptops and desktops useless".. The cloud is hardware based. Those servers are hosted on desktops. Desktops ARE "the cloud." The documents and spreadsheets "in the cloud" are made on desktops and laptops before they go "in the cloud" Computers are starting to converge and go everywhere we go. Computers are in our cars, our living rooms, our pockets, our briefcases, our bedrooms, our fridges, our stoves, our shoes, our hats. They're everywhere! If anything this convergence is only beneficial. Technology is getting smarter but the people who are using them aren't.

You can sit there with your finger and your know you what and act like the world revolves around your business and technology will slow down for you or you can adapt.

*exhales* im done