The End of the Windows PC is Near

[altrenda]

I can't think of any more important factor than the above in the progress of reducing the size of computing equipment. Unless this obstacle can be surmounted we will have a very real limitation to the speed of all devices.

add to this the strain that increased speed and multiple cores puts on current battery technology. Battery life is a large limiting factor in mobile computing.

look at an iPad. the reason it's so heavy and sometimes uncomfortable to hold is because it's almost all battery inside.

 

[tankman1989]

add to this the strain that increased speed and multiple cores puts on current battery technology. Battery life is a large limiting factor in mobile computing.

look at an iPad. the reason it's so heavy and sometimes uncomfortable to hold is because it's almost all battery inside.

Yes, that is also a very good point. Speed and power usage go hand in hand. Even if phones reach 3Ghz they won't last long with a battery. Even if they are plugged in they will not handle heat well either. The heat sink for a single core 3Ghz cpu weighs the same as a smart phone. People just don't seem to look at this MAJOR issues which don't follow Moore's law in any way. These are most likely the biggest factors in addition to the fact that building smaller usually costs more once you hit the point where materials are not super expensive.

As I said before, I feel that desktops are fairly secure.

 

[Wheelie]

Interesting that you think we have hit the wall on processor speed for tablets and smart phones. LG just announced yesterday a quad core smart phone so don't tell their engineers it can't be done

"Moore's law is as relevant in world of ultra-mobile devices as it has been with PCs and mainframes in last few decades," Intel CEO Paul Otellini said. "Smartphones will change again dramatically in the next couple years, and Moore's law is what will drive this." So don't tell Intel's chief that we're done in this area. I don't think he'd listen to you either.

And Koomey's Law on battery consumption:
“The idea is that at a fixed computing load, the amount of battery you need will fall by a factor of two every year and a half” which will shape the future of mobile computing in all forms". The number of computations per joule of energy dissipated has been doubling approximately every 1.57 years. Because of Koomey’s law, the amount of battery needed for a fixed computing load will fall by factor of 100 every decade.

Both laws are interesting subjects, one that engineers seem to be enjoying as a challenge. Just look at where the smart phone has come to today. Trust me: its development and successes are not going to stop.

Another part of my discussion not addressed: What happens if Windows 8 becomes more like Android and iOS? That is some of what Microsoft is planning with Windows 8. Windows 8 will likely facilitate ease of OS maintenance. The end user will follow an easily available procedure and **poof** the PC is reset to factory state! All your cloud-based apps and data are reloaded automatically about 10 minutes after. Microsoft is also beating another big drum in talking about how apps will only be available and installed in Windows 8 like in the hugely successful Android Market and the Apple Store. This would greatly reduce the chance of threats like viruses.

And furthermore, what if the hard disk goes away? That day is also likely coming soon.

I think you folks have missed another point I have made: this is NOT going to completely kill the PC BUT it will substantially reduce the number of installed desktop PC's in a core segment of the PC repair market: the residential customer. Intel, AMD and the entire mobile manufacturing market (HTC, Samsung, Sprint, Motorola, Verizon, T-Mobile, Apple, and AT&T) are going after our residential customers. This is not trivial my friends.

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[Dameize]

The only way it will die is if ubuntu manages to break hugely main stream and developers actively develop for it and make it way more user friendly. If that happened and people got on board I think a huge boom would happen.

 

[pc-quebec]

My entire business customers don’t like to see the government put their noses in the business. If you think they are ready to put their stuff on the Cloud ….. They want to sleep with their accounting data under their pillow.

 

[Wheelie]

My entire business customers don’t like to see the government put their noses in the business. If you think they are ready to put their stuff on the Cloud ….. They want to sleep with their accounting data under their pillow.

You're fooling yourself if you don't think businesses are moving to the cloud. The marketplace is forcing them that direction by offering convenience and price. I already have business customers that are shifting over to using QuickBooks online for a myriad of very important reasons.

The advantages for using QuickBooks online are:

• Multiple employees can use QuickBooks at the same time from different physical locations
• Employees can use smart phones and tablets to manage QuickBooks
• Backing up the QuickBooks data file is no longer the huge worry it has been in the past
• Their accountants can access their data 24/7 from any location

This is a huge advantage for our business customers and it is becoming very popular. That is going to be a big "cloud" success story. Couple that with online apps like Microsoft Office 365, SalesForce CRM online, FaceBook, etc and it won't be long before businesses are all completely run in the cloud. This transition is coming and it is coming fast.

 

[Wheelie]

*But** I was not talking about business customers in my earlier post. I was talking about residential customers. That market is going to see a massive shift in the coming period of 3 to 5 years due to pressures from the mobile manufacturers and the cloud. Mobile manufacturers and the cloud companies are going after the residential segment in a huge way that will impact us repair techs by reducing the need for the laptop/desktop PC. The iPhone, iPad and iCloud are just the first shot across the bow. This type of market shift could eliminate the hard disk and reduce the need for massive computing horsepower for most residential customers (not all!!!!!). When you couple a smart phone or tablet to a full-size LCD, Keyboard and mouse you have a very compelling reason not to buy a complex and buggy PC tower or laptop.

Residential customers **mostly** only need to surf the net, order stuff, print stuff, and check e-mail. Windows 3.1, 95, 98, ME, NT, 2000, XP, Vista, and Windows 7 all have waaaaay too many features and waaaay too much programability for residential users and it gets them into trouble. This has caused mass confusion and anger in the home PC segment and has a lot of people afraid of using their PC's. I hear this every day: I just want to check e-mail and do my online banking! That's it! Why did this PC break like that?

The new trend with Apple's iOS, and Android's OS is simplicity and ease of use and through that will be the elimination of the "repair tech". Why? Because Windows 8 seeks to bring that to the table as well.

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[tankman1989]

I know that I am no fan of "the cloud" as a primary means of storage. I have had broadband for 14 years and one would think that it should have become more reliable over the years but the opposite is true. Since Windstream has taken over for our local Telco the quality of the DSL has gone right down the crapper. Just about every month I suffer about 5-10% of the days with totally unusable Internet and I have had a technician out over 20 times (It is a business DSL/phone account - their "Premium package"). I can guarantee that I would NEVER transition to the cloud for anything short of secondary offsite backup with the QoS provided by Windstream.

Knowing that broadband connection speeds and connectivity can vary greatly I don't know how many people would be willing to run their business on accounting software that resides solely in the cloud. If I had 10% downtime for my business I would never make it and would bring everything onsite where I had control over it.

Now one way around this problem for broadband is that all hardline providers (DSL or Cable) should also offer wireless connectivity as well so if a line goes down there is redundancy. I think this is a MUST before we see businesses rely heavily upon cloud based apps.

 

[pc-quebec]

You're fooling yourself if you don't think businesses are moving to the cloud. The marketplace is forcing them that direction by offering convenience and price. I already have business customers that are shifting over to using QuickBooks online for a myriad of very important reasons.
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Business don't use Quickbook in Quebec. We have 2 greats product "Acomba and Avantage" made in Quebec. I'm reseller, I give also the support, business don't change accounting software for fun here. Aside I don't plan for more than 10 years as I'm 51 years old and don't want to work forever.

 

[Wheelie]

... Battery life is a large limiting factor in mobile computing ...

that's not correct. Koomey's Law says: “at a fixed computing load, the amount of battery you need will fall by a factor of two every year and a half.”


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[Wheelie]

... Speed and power usage go hand in hand ... People just don't seem to look at this MAJOR issues which don't follow Moore's law in any way ...

Might want to re-think this ...

 

[dbdawn]

This is interesting, first I have heard of the so called "kill switch".
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/the-kill-switch-comes-to-the-pc-02162012.html

 

[Wheelie]

This is interesting, first I have heard of the so called "kill switch".
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/the-kill-switch-comes-to-the-pc-02162012.html

"With the rollout of the Windows 8 operating system expected later this year, millions of desktop and laptop PCs will get kill switches for the first time. Microsoft (MSFT) hasn’t spoken publicly about its reasons for including this capability in Windows 8 beyond a cryptic warning that it might be compelled to use it for legal or security reasons."

Great post dbdawn. This post deserves its own thread. The impact of Windows 8 to the repair technician is huge. Couple that with what the mobile manufacturers are doing and I believe our jobs are severely threatened much like the TV repair businesses of the 50's and 60's were (but for different reasons).

This article points out only a small part of what is happening in the OS world yet why it will play a big part in reducing the need for the computer repair tech. How you ask?

• OS's are going to be much more fault tolerant in the future (as in the Apple iOS and android OS worlds)
• The hard disk will largely go away in the mainstream end user retail home computer and prices for them will drop (no user serviceable parts inside - think HP printer)
• Apps & data will be cloud-based
• Viruses will be virtually non-existent (as in the Apple iOS and android OS worlds) thanks to the Apple Store and Android Marketplace

If you disagree I suggest you re-read the last 4 bullet points and really try to grasp the impact of each one. This trend is coming like a freight train. Couple that with what the mobile manufacturers are doing and the future looks very grim for the "computer repair tech". Intel, AMD and the entire mobile manufacturing market (HTC, Samsung, Sprint, Motorola, Verizon, T-Mobile, Apple, and AT&T) are going after residential customers and Microsoft is woefully behind the curve trying to catch up. They (Microsoft and the mobile manufacturers) are both fighting for our customers and it will be largely at our expense. This is not trivial and it not something that we can control.

Windows 8 is being designed to shore up problems they have had for years. It has been great for you & me (the techie geeky power user) but has failed miserably for the common end user (soccer moms and retirees). Apple's iOS and Android's OS has shown Microsoft the way to customer satisfaction and Microsoft is playing catch up. And catch up they will.

Have you ever noticed you cannot really do anything "outside the box" on Apple's iOS and Android's OS? You only have a limited set of functions or things you can do (unless you root the device). That benefits the end user and frees them up from us (the techs). It makes the customer experience better and eliminates our jobs. I honestly believe our jobs are doomed in less than a decade as XP, Vista, and Windows 7 PC's disappear so will our jobs.

Some of you think you can make a living working on cell phones and tablets? LOL. Have fun. That is a cut-throat small profit margin PITA business. Doesn't even compare to what we have now.

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[hightechrex]

This assinine, theorycrafting, hypoethetical, nonsense has seriously got to stop. This is getting old.

 

[Wheelie]

This assinine, theorycrafting, hypoethetical, nonsense has seriously got to stop. This is getting old.

Then ... please ... don't read it.

By now.

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[codegreen]

This assinine, theorycrafting, hypoethetical, nonsense has seriously got to stop. This is getting old.

You could stop reading the thread. But, even if you don't agree, this is an important discussion.

 

[Wheelie]

This assinine, theorycrafting, hypoethetical, nonsense has seriously got to stop. This is getting old.

You could stop reading the thread. But, even if you don't agree, this is an important discussion.

.
hightechrex's response is simply a reflection of his fear and inability to study and/or understand the tsunami wave that has already launched.

Look. This upsets me just as much as the next computer repair tech. It is threatening my livelihood. I am not fearful but I am trying to figure out my next gig. Working from home for 8 years making a really nice income has been like a vacation for me.

I honestly hope I am wrong. But the writing is on the wall.


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[dbdawn]

I don't know what the changes are going to be, I know it will affect us to some extent. However as long as we are not complacent we should be able to change with the technology.
There are many threads and ideas already about other areas of income besides personal PC repair. For one, businesses are slow to change and/or adopt new technology, so that should be a source of income for a while still, whether it is a consulting gig or full time IT person.

 

[hightechrex]

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hightechrex's response is simply a reflection of his fear and inability to study and/or understand the tsunami wave that has already launched.

Look. This upsets me just as much as the next computer repair tech. It is threatening my livelihood. I am not fearful but I am trying to figure out my next gig. Working from home for 8 years making a really nice income has been like a vacation for me.

I honestly hope I am wrong. But the writing is on the wall.


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Quite an assertation you just made lets see.


65% of my jobs are for cracked cell phone screens
20% are for cracked laptop screens
Other 15% is all virus removal, errors, blue screens, etc

Its quite obvious that the tides have shifted but it doesn't seem to be hurting me. I actually seem to be making MORE money. It's also been said by many ableminded individuals that due to current limitations on processing power that cell phones won't be replacing desktops or laptops.. any time soon or ever for that matter.

Desktop processers hit a point where the max stock clock speed was about 3.6 ghz on high end chips. Over the past year or so the rates have been dropping down to about 2.8-3.2 on many high end chips. Due in part to

a.) Increaseing clock speeds does little for performance
b.) Improved CPU architectures are benefiting from increased clock speed less and less
c.) Higher clock speed = more power draw/heat (A limitation that smartphones are already starting to meet at 1.3-1.5 GHz - Phones are getting hotter and the battery lives are getting worse by the year)

As great as rapidly advancing technology is for us all.. It actually appears that technology is moving too fast. To a point that devices are getting smaller and smaller, faster, more power hungry, and increasingly hot. As far as business go personal computers are here to stay. Opening a business is something that any joe shmo or becky sue can do; its possible for anyone with a few bucks and an internet connection to start a business. I see the tide shifting from residents to businesses.

Finally: I see the tsunami coming alright. But i'm not worried about getting a little wet and im not opposed to surfing

 

[Wheelie]

Mobile World Congress - Android Dominates Day 1

HTC One X: This is a killer phone. The One X features the Tegra 3 quad-core processor. It has four 1.5GHz main cores and a secondary core for low-power tasks. It boasts a 4.7-inch Super LCD display with 1280 x 720 pixels for full HD resolution. The 8-megapixel camera is aided by an ImageChip to help process images faster. This phone can take pictures once every 0.7 seconds. It comes with Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich and Sense 4.0 from HTC. It's all encased in a creamy, polycarbonate shell that's tough-as-nails and not too hard on the eyes, either. HTC has integrated its Beats Audio software across all audio applications, so even Slacker and Pandora can take advantage of the One X's advanced sound-processing software. This phone will land in the U.S. in April with support for AT&T's LTE 4G network, but loses the Tegra 3 and substitutes a SnapDragon S4 processor instead.

HTC One S: This is also a killer phone, but not quite so killer as the One X. The display drops down to 4.3 inches and qHD (960 x 540) resolution, it has a dual-core SnapDragon S4 processor, and substitutes plasma-coated aluminum for the One X's polycarbonate shell. It has the same camera and same software as the One X. The good news is that the One S will debut on T-Mobile's network in the coming months with support for 42Mbps HSPA+.

Huawei Ascend D Quad: This phone has one of the worst names ever given to an Android 4.0 device, but that's not stopping Huawei from crowing about its custom-built, quad-core engine. Huawei claims that the Ascend D Quad is the fastest smartphone ever built. The company is using its own processor --rather than one from Nvidia or Qualcomm. Other features include a 4.5-inch 1280 x 720 HD display, 8-megapixel camera with 1080p HD video capture, and a 1.3-megapixel user-facing camera for those video chats. Huawei plans to introduce several variants of this phone in a number of markets during the second quarter.

Completely absent? Smartphones running Microsoft's Windows Phone platform.

And when Microsoft finally releases a real version of Windows 8 ... what will it look like? More like Android and iOS? Less like current Windows? The era of super-stable operating systems is upon us.

And in other news: Adobe Launches Photoshop Touch for iPad And it's only $9.99! Who was it here that that said you couldn't run Photoshop on a tablet or smart phone? Every software maker out there will be porting their programs over for tablets and smart phones (and then some).

The trend of smaller, faster, computers and more stable operating systems is underway. Soon will be the day when kids see the old desktop tower PC in the corner of the basement and laugh. My original post 1 year and 4 months ago I said: This is a major game-changer folks. The writing is on the wall. Will this "kill" the PC? Not today or tomorrow. In 3 to 5 years? It could. It will certainly significantly reduce the number of PC's in my client area which will reduce the need for me and thus my business will suffer.


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