The End of the Windows PC is Near

[Wheelie]

It is funny to hear all the nay sayers saying this won't ever happen when all our corporate leaders are already moving full steam ahead toward the "post-PC era" right now. It is not a choice we have when the marketplace is already embracing it.

WILL YOU STILL BE ABLE TO OWN AND USE A DESKTOP PC? YES!! But their numbers in your marketplace will be markedly reduced and you will be a minority (people may even chuckle at you). The really big reduction will be in the residential marketplace. I am already seeing this in my area. One day, our kids will mock a "PC" collecting dust in a corner of the basement.

The installed numbers of desktop PC's will be reduced in your area such that your business must evolve in order to survive (but there may or not be anything for "us techs" to transition to). When will this transition complete? I do not know. Possibly within the next 5 years? But I do know the transition has started and is happening right now as we speak (see ComputerDave's post above ^^^).

All that has to happen for this transition is (and it is now in full swing):

• Have a dual interface: the tablet's/smartphone's interface itself AND the same interface as a with desktop PC (full-sized keyboard, mouse & LCD)
• The same/similar computing power as a desktop PC
• The same availability to applications as the desktop PC (Excel, QuickBooks, Quicken, AutoCAD, etc)
• The slow, klunky, problem-prone Windows OS is replaced with significantly more reliable, easy-to-repair Operating Systems (like Android and iOS). Those OS's do not need a computer tech in order to maintain it (press 3 buttons and **poof** the OS is reloaded).

And the leading technology corporations are working feverishly toward those goals as we speak (Motorola, AT&T, T-Mobile, Microsoft, Verizon, HTC, Samsung, Apple, etc, etc, etc). We already know the mobile communication companies can reliably deliver 5+ Mbps broadband Internet to portable devices. I use mine daily and love it.

If you want to discuss intelligently how this transition cannot happen then it would be good to hear a discussion about why the four bullet points above will NOT happen.

A very good primer on this topic written by Forrester Research analyst Sarah Rotman Epps: "What the Post-PC Era Really Means" "The post-PC era is real," Epps wrote in the report, "and its consequences will revolutionize computing product strategy."

 

[joydivision]

Glad I have made new plans .

That said I will embrace changes, I just know I can't do this for ever. As for the desktop PC I have a feeling it will be around for a lot longer than we think. And Android is far more buggy than Windows is!

 

[maclaptech]

Apple just reduced their orders if iPad 2 from their suppliers by few million. Yes some of it might be because of iPad 3 coming next year and other reason but bad global economy is effecting everything including iPads.

iPad Glass Replacement and Repair

 

[C0ldf1re]

This thread has haunted me for a while!...

I see a split between people who only want simple pre-set operations like email, internet and WP, and firms who need the versatility to have their own software programmed.

The former may give up their PC's and Windows. But "real" firms will foreseeably need a "proper" computer with a "proper" O/S.

 

[PCX]

Things are changing, but the only ones who have to worry are those who cannot keep up. If your methods and understanding of technology still dates back to the 90s or even 3-5 years ago, then you will probably be one of the many businesses that will ultimately fail.

Will windows eventually become a thing of the past? Maybe, but just like anything else, I do not foresee the PC in general going anywhere. If anything it will simply change and evolve.

Smart TV's are becoming the next desktop
So are many laptops
Tablets are becoming a replacement laptop with the extension of a keyboard and mouse. Look at the Asus Transformer.

Android is really starting to pickup, but its not without its flaws, and with its flaws introduces new troubleshooting services.

Tablets, stop being a wuss and start learning how to use and repair them. They are going to be a part of the future many years to come.

Apple, hey maybe people will get smart and start investing in an operating system that is fairly secure. While most wont, Apple is probably not going anywhere either. If you have not starting working on Macs or the IPad, what the heck are you doing?

Linux, well, thats never going away either, will it replace Windows, probably not for the home user (it already does for many businesses, especially those needing high security) but the new Android operating system could easily adapt to PCs as well as desktops. Again, remember that tablets can now easily become a laptop or desktop.

Phones will probably not be replacing the traditional PC for a while, however, its capabilities are increasing and there are already plans to use it as a desktop platform with a docking station. Are you repairing or troubleshooting phones yet? Why not?

This is all off the top of my head (no proof reading as I have little time to write this) but the point is this, if you keep up with the times and evolve you business along with the trend of technology, you will be fine. Also keep in mind that even if you are a little behind, there is still room to catch up. As many of you already know, we are still working on computers that are 5+ years old for one reason or another. That will not change. People are still going to hold on to their old PCs and because of that, a good amount of work that we do will still be based on older technology.

 

[markcuk11]

tablets will die of death windows 8 will sort that one!! Laptops are still the future I think

 

[PCX]

I think laptops most definitely will play a big part for many years to come, however, I think we are going to see the rise of tablets/laptop hybrids in the very near future. Again, look at the Asus Transformer / Prime.

 

[markcuk11]

I think laptops most definitely will play a big part for many years to come, however, I think we are going to see the rise of tablets/laptop hybrids in the very near future. Again, look at the Asus Transformer / Prime.

yeah but who buys them at that price? netbooks were good because they were cheap

 

[PCX]

Well, if you have been around technology for any amount of time, then you should understand that as technology becomes more readily available due to competition, that prices will come down. Regardless of that, for the price of the Asus Transformer / Prime, you are getting a whole lot of laptop/tablet considering the technology. Trust me, I still see plenty of people spend ridiculous amounts of money on computers capable of way less.

 

[ell]

I think laptops most definitely will play a big part for many years to come, however, I think we are going to see the rise of tablets/laptop hybrids in the very near future. Again, look at the Asus Transformer / Prime.

My concern is the low prices of these toys and how we can make any money, will people pay to have their $200 or less tablet fixed? Same with cell phones, I worry about the margins.

 

[bitbytes]

Android could also substantially kill the Windows OS.

Thoughts?

Disagree, Windows will be around till you cant type anymore.
Adjust services to stay up to date with technology.

 

[sct]

So many want to fell like the sky is falling why? I offer smart phone, tablet, laptop, and desktop repairs. I'm not rolling in the dough but life is good. Many people still want desktops just lower end cause of the cost. But it seems like everything is about cost as of today. Many people still are having money issues. I believe you should always keep up with the times and offer as many services as you can.

 

[PCX]

Yeah . . . I don't see Android killing Windows any time soon. Unless Android became a OS that can support a broader range of technology and be compatible with most Windows applications, I do not foresee that happening at all. Gotta keep in mind, Android is based of linux.

 

[altrenda]

What I find interesting is that the original post is from October 2010.
Are we any closer to the end of the Windows PC now than then?

In October 2010 MS said it had sold 240 million copies of Win 7, by January 2012 it was 525 million. How many pirated installs are out there?

While Apple has had great growth, going from roughly 5% to 10% of desktop/laptop sales, and the explosion of tablets and smartphones, people are still buying a lot of Windows machines.

So to answer the original OP, no the end of the Windows PC is not near. But, for us who make our living from technology, we have to be prepared to take advantage of opportunities caused by changes and advances in other systems.

 

[Tekguy]

What I find interesting is that the original post is from October 2010. Are we any closer to the end of the Windows PC now than then?

People are still buying a lot of Windows machines.

1 million new PCs are sold everyday. It doesn't have to be an all or nothing proposition. Computers are so inexpensive now you can have a smartphone, a tablet, a laptop & a desktop without breaking the bank.

 

[Screwloose]

"The sky is falling!.... again"

*Yawn*

 

[smashedbotatos]

PC's are not going anywhere, but on the other hand they are becoming more and more disposable. Which makes it hard for customers to justify spending even $300 fixing a $600 PC or laptop.

I find my self fixing Laptops and Desktops for cheaper than I used to because it takes less time than it used to in certain cases. Such as a quick N&P or transferring data.

Working on phones and tablets hardware wise is lucrative, but software wise, and setting them up is even better.

I also find that I am working on networks in homes and business more often now than ever. Setup of media servers, and all the wireless AV devices that now exist, like wireless laptop to tv screen dealy the TV's that have netflix and the almighty blu-ray players.

I have not seen a drop in repairs of PCs at all though. People still get viruses, or laptop screens that are cracked. 80% of the time they are willing to get them repaired, or sell them to me at a fair price.

Windows 8 looks like a phone OS. Mountain Lion OSX 10.8 is getting IOS features integrated to it.....and most people don't like the little screens on their gadgets, they prefer a laptop to use for most purposes. So they will be familiar with these new OS's, because of how often they use their phones. Desktop PC's are becoming a thing of the past with consumers or atleast my customers....Most of what I get in are laptops or 10 inch netbooks.

I am willing to believe that the average consumer won't be leaving their laptops anytime soon for a tablet. Tablets still need something to sync to for now....although that is getting phased out pretty fast.

 

[tankman1989]

I posted this in a thread which discussed Ubuntu running on a cell phone and why I don't think smart phones are a danger to the PC industry.

There is one thing that we should all keep in mind here. CPU speeds have reached a point where additional speed comes at a GREAT cost such as heat/energy and are almost impractical. This is why we don't see many CPU's above the 3.2 Ghz mark (the pathways for the electrons are so small there is a theoretical limit to the size due to the size of the electron), but you now see multi core CPU's to give the computer more speed. The problem with all of this is that modern programming is linear and it can't really take advantage of multi core or multiple threads.

If you want to enter a field where there will be LOTS of activity in the decades to come, look into programming multithread applications or games. If you could write a game that took advantage of parallel processors that would be huge! Imagine what a game could look like if it had 16 3.2Ghz processors running at capacity.

Oh, you may be wondering why I wrote this. The point is that phones will reach a limit to speed MUCH before it will hit a wall at storage capacity. This is going to significantly hamper the ability of the phone to perform anywhere near the speed of a desktop. While the processor could theoretically be able to fit into the phone the problem is going to be with the power to operate it and the materials to disperse the heat. These two factors are going to be what keeps everyone in the desktop/laptop market for decades to come

In the OP the posted stated he didn't think it would be long until we see smart phones running at speeds of the then current desktops, and this was in 2010. Well I'd like to point out that we haven't really seen an increase of CPU speed in desktops since then but we see more cores per CPU. This will most likely effect the mobile phone industry the same way. We will hit a limit for the allowable size. This means that desktops are going to be around for some time to come.

I can't think of any more important factor than the above in the progress of reducing the size of computing equipment. Unless this obstacle can be surmounted we will have a very real limitation to the speed of all devices.

It seems that the only possibility to overcome this hurdle, other than parallel/multi-thread programming, could be quantum or atomic computing

 

[Wheelie]

Good discussion on this topic for the past year and 4 months. Is the end of Windows PC near? I do not know when but I do believe it will be reduced slowly over time to a much smaller footprint than it is today.

Microsoft is working feverishly to catch up with Apple and Android right now. They really missed the boat big time on the tablet/mobile OS. If they don't hit a home run with Windows 8 they may be in big trouble. If you have not read up on what Windows 8 is and what it is intended to do you should take a look. Microsoft did not see the mobile market arriving like it has. And arrive it did. They are scrambling now and I do see significant change coming.

Regardless of what Microsoft does with Windows 8 I see things moving rapidly toward more ease of use and reduced maintenance - and thus a general trend toward:

• Mobile broadband more fully available in residences (I have 5 Mbps down and 2 up in my home and around town)
• The PC form factor trending toward smaller (ie smart phones and tablets), while
• Having the ability to use a full-size LCD display and full-sized keyboard and mouse with smart phones and tablets (your smart phone or tablet will be your PC)
• More powerful smart phones and tablets (Moore's Law is now reducing the time to double transistor density)
• All your data stored in the cloud (no data loss issues and this eliminates the need for a rotating hard disk)
• Most apps that are written for Windows are going to be written for Android/iOS (Quicken, Quickbooks, Word, Excel, etc)
• Most apps are cloud-based (can't lose you installation disks)
• Locally installed data and apps are automatically backed up to the cloud (in case of failure they just pop back on your device automatically after a reload)
• More trouble-free Operating Systems - self repairing and easy for the end user to reload by himself
• Can only get apps from the App Store/Market Place (prevents viruses and problems)
• Printing works fine with Tablets and smart phones (Android/iOS printer drivers and HP's ePrint work fine)

Benefit to the consumer:

1. This eliminates the need to pay someone to clean viruses (customer just holds down 3 keys and hard reset fixes) and all data & apps restore automatically
2. This eliminates the need to reload the OS if it gets corrupt (customer just holds down 3 keys and hard reset fixes) and all data & apps restore automatically
3. This eliminates hard disk repairs/replacements (there are no failure-prone rotating hard disks)
4. This eliminates motherboard repairs/replacements
5. This eliminates power supply repairs/replacements
6. This eliminates PC tune ups

What percent of your business is due to the 6 items above? Mine? A bunch.

Cell phone/tablet repair is a tiny fraction of my business. I don't see how I could make a living fixing smart phone or tablet screens. I have tried and it sucks - there is very little profit in that work. The electronics are hermetically sealed commodity units with very little profit in swapping them out - most of that is done under warranty anyway.

Anyway. Good discussions so far.

.

 

[tankman1989]

Good discussion on this topic for the past year and 4 months. Is the end of Windows PC near? I do not know when but I do believe it will be reduced slowly over time to a much smaller footprint than it is today.

Microsoft is working feverishly to catch up with Apple and Android right now. They really missed the boat big time on the tablet/mobile OS. If they don't hit a home run with Windows 8 they may be in big trouble. If you have not read up on what Windows 8 is and what it is intended to do you should take a look. Microsoft did not see the mobile market arriving like it has. And arrive it did. They are scrambling now and I do see significant change coming.

Regardless of what Microsoft does with Windows 8 I see things moving rapidly toward more ease of use and reduced maintenance - and thus a general trend toward:

• Mobile broadband more fully available in residences (I have 5 Mbps down and 2 up in my home and around town)
• The PC form factor trending toward smaller (ie smart phones and tablets), while
• Having the ability to use a full-size LCD display and full-sized keyboard and mouse with smart phones and tablets (your smart phone or tablet will be your PC)
• More powerful smart phones and tablets (Moore's Law is now reducing the time to double transistor density)
• All your data stored in the cloud (no data loss issues and this eliminates the need for a rotating hard disk)
• Most apps that are written for Windows are going to be written for Android/iOS (Quicken, Quickbooks, Word, Excel, etc)
• Most apps are cloud-based (can't lose you installation disks)
• Locally installed data and apps are automatically backed up to the cloud (in case of failure they just pop back on your device automatically after a reload)
• More trouble-free Operating Systems - self repairing and easy for the end user to reload by himself
• Can only get apps from the App Store/Market Place (prevents viruses and problems)
• Printing works fine with Tablets and smart phones (Android/iOS printer drivers and HP's ePrint work fine)

Benefit to the consumer:

1. This eliminates the need to pay someone to clean viruses (customer just holds down 3 keys and hard reset fixes) and all data & apps restore automatically
2. This eliminates the need to reload the OS if it gets corrupt (customer just holds down 3 keys and hard reset fixes) and all data & apps restore automatically
3. This eliminates hard disk repairs/replacements (there are no failure-prone rotating hard disks)
4. This eliminates motherboard repairs/replacements
5. This eliminates power supply repairs/replacements
6. This eliminates PC tune ups

What percent of your business is due to the 6 items above? Mine? A bunch.

Cell phone/tablet repair is a tiny fraction of my business. I don't see how I could make a living fixing smart phone or tablet screens. I have tried and it sucks - there is very little profit in that work. The electronics are hermetically sealed commodity units with very little profit in swapping them out - most of that is done under warranty anyway.

Anyway. Good discussions so far.

.

Wow, what you covered is basically what has been said (in summary) throughout the thread. The problem is that people aren't looking at the physics aspects of the hardware manufacturing and operation. This limits practical speeds for any size regardless of size. You will NOT see a 3.2Ghz phone. It is not going to happen unless there is some kind of miraculous cooling breakthrough. You are not going to see many chips over the current, and LONG standing 3-3.5 Ghz speed unless physics changes or cooling with liquid nitrogen starts.

AS far as Microsoft being in trouble, I don't see that at all. This is because they have the business sector locked up as well as the IT support market. Those two factors take a long time to change and MS is big enough to miss a product cycle and not loose much market share, even if they put out a bum product.

One thing that is good about all of this is that the invention of Android, the maturation of Linux, Apple and the new Google OS are all making Microsoft listen to their customers and the competition keeps them a little worried about loosing market share, which makes them improve their product.

I'm sure someone is going to say that in 5 years we are going to see mobile phones replacing desktops for people running Adobe Photoshop/Illustrator CS8! I find Photoshop CS5 running slow enough on my quad core 3.3Ghz with 8G of ram, I don't see how a 1.2Ghz, 2Gb ram phone is going to run even more advanced software.

The PC is here for a while.