The End of the Windows PC is Near

[tankman1989]

For anyone who values personal privacy they will not migrate to wireless broadband. As far as I know, hardline/wired internet is still protected from warent-less wiretaps unless the suspect is a "terrorist" while any wireless communication be it a phone call or internet useage can be monitored and or intercepted by law enforcement at their will/desire.

So, if you want security, stay away from wireless!

 

[Styxbound]

I've heard various officials describe "terrorists" as anyone opposed to various government policies. So lotsa luck with that.

 

[tankman1989]

I've heard various officials describe "terrorists" as anyone opposed to various government policies. So lotsa luck with that.

lol, yeah that could be the way it is going but wireless is less secure either way,

 

[vdub12]

I agree that Windows is in it's last few years, decade at most, of dominance (and it should be as it is a horrible OS).

The way I see it if Android programmers can keep the OS trim and un-bloated then I think they will have a hands down winner and will gain market share and compatibility with standard PC hardware (Intel / AMD CPU's, and GPU's).

I think everyone should take a look at their current PC's and compare them to the original Pentium's or even 486's. I do not think my Intel Quad core 3.2 Ghz with 8GB ram, 1Gb video, 6TB hd is any faster than a new install of Win 95/98 when opening Word or Excel of the similar year.

As the hardware got faster, Microsoft just threw in more crap that inevitably corrupted and slowed down my machine. I don't think my quad core is a time saver in doing word processing, spread sheets or even basic low quality web surfing. What has all this speed gotten us if the OS is a morbidly obese retarded schizophrenic?

I look at the business world and think they have been swindled for the last 25 years by the PC/software industries. For the amount of $$ they spend all they get is more eye candy instead of more functionality and less processing times. The PC is supposed to be a time saver and a faster PC is supposed to run faster, but not if it is a Windows machine!

Does anyone else agree that the increase in processor & hard drive speed is no where near proportionate to the speed increase/time decrease of the same task performed by the computer?

I have to disagree. Yes computers are a lot faster today then they where and yes software is a lot more complicated. However, if it was all Microsoft's fault because of there bloat then MAC's would fly and they don't. Also I am a Linux user and my system isn't much faster then a windows 7 system because of KDE4 and all the fancy visual affects.

 

[red12049]

Heh. Funny how so few (except MS shareholders*) thank MS for giving the vast majority of us jobs. Most likely, there would not *BE* a residential or small business break/fix/consult market without Microsoft.

Rick

*Disclaimer: I am a Microsoft shareholder.

 

[tankman1989]

Heh. Funny how so few (except MS shareholders*) thank MS for giving the vast majority of us jobs. Most likely, there would not *BE* a residential or small business break/fix/consult market without Microsoft.

Rick

*Disclaimer: I am a Microsoft shareholder.

Yeah, break/fix is SO productive. I mean it's not like most of us could not have actually pursued a productive career like programming had we had machines that ran the way they were supposed to.

Think how many more programs would be available if 80% of break/fix were unnecessary and that talent went to actual productive programming work, but instead we are stuck putting out fires.

 

[ATTech]

Yeah, break/fix is SO productive. I mean it's not like most of us could not have actually pursued a productive career like programming had we had machines that ran the way they were supposed to.

Think how many more programs would be available if 80% of break/fix were unnecessary and that talent went to actual productive programming work, but instead we are stuck putting out fires.

There are plenty of people who can fix a computer; this is a very saturated industry. Don't act like that's stopping you from pursing a career in programming. As far as I'm concerned, this industry is just a stepping stone for people who want to achieve something greater, like programming, engineering or IT consulting. Some people, for whatever reason, get stuck on the stone and make a career out of it. The only thing I can say for sure is that the reason they do, isn't Microsoft.

 

[red12049]

Yeah, break/fix is SO productive. I mean it's not like most of us could not have actually pursued a productive career like programming had we had machines that ran the way they were supposed to.

Think how many more programs would be available if 80% of break/fix were unnecessary and that talent went to actual productive programming work, but instead we are stuck putting out fires.

Uh... I'm not exactly sure of the correlation between the two, and what is stopping you from programming, if you wish to.

As to productive, if a business is stopped due to a computer being down, then break/fix is VERY productive for that business.

As for me, I'm not a programmer, so this allows me to make a good living doing what I enjoy.

Rick

 

[Platte Computer Repair]

Yeah, break/fix is SO productive. I mean it's not like most of us could not have actually pursued a productive career like programming had we had machines that ran the way they were supposed to.

Think how many more programs would be available if 80% of break/fix were unnecessary and that talent went to actual productive programming work, but instead we are stuck putting out fires.

What about those of us that actually like working on computers? I took enough programming classes to know I don't want to do that for a living.

 

[JAG Computers]

There are plenty of people who can fix a computer; this is a very saturated industry. Don't act like that's stopping you from pursing a career in programming. As far as I'm concerned, this industry is just a stepping stone for people who want to achieve something greater, like programming, engineering or IT consulting. Some people, for whatever reason, get stuck on the stone and make a career out of it. The only thing I can say for sure is that the reason they do, isn't Microsoft.

Just curious, but why do you feel that way? Just an idea, but there may be some who want to make a living in this industry. I for one want to. I am not stuck in this career field and am very happy where I am.

 

[ATTech]

Just curious, but why do you feel that way? Just an idea, but there may be some who want to make a living in this industry. I for one want to. I am not stuck in this career field and am very happy where I am.

There is no end-game for this industry. There is no way to make a good living as a computer repair technician (Before everyone jumps on me, I'm not saying it's not possible to make a good living in the industry; see business owners). There is a reason why there are no $60K computer technician jobs. At some point, if you want make more, you need to progress to engineering, programming or IT consulting.

 

[Wheelie]

Here's another "shot across the bow" ...

This thing runs circles around my T-Mobile G2 ---> "Can the Atrix 4G Really Become Your Next PC?"

Change is happening:
2011: The year personal computing will reinvent itself

 

[BienTek]

This entire thread was quite interesting to me. I actually went through it twice. Wheelie has some good points, and the general rebuttal is that techs just need to "adapt and evolve" - although these tangent markets are going to become crowded as techs migrate to them. I think tough times for the PC technician are ahead of us.

 

[BryanLee]

Whatever today's technology evolves into.....it will break. The key is to know how to fix it.

 

[Wheelie]

This entire thread was quite interesting to me. I actually went through it twice. Wheelie has some good points, and the general rebuttal is that techs just need to "adapt and evolve" - although these tangent markets are going to become crowded as techs migrate to them. I think tough times for the PC technician are ahead of us.

Good write up at your blog. You hit the nail on the head when you said: "It’s easy to picture a future where our phones seamlessly integrate with monitors and keyboards, replacing the PC or laptop as we know it, except for power users. Imagine sitting down at a keyboard and monitor, which senses your phone’s presence wirelessly. You enter a password, and suddenly you’re connected to the operating system on your phone."

Within 5 years the computing power of a smartphone will be nearly equal to today's PC and will connect right up to your keyboard, mouse and 24" LCD. Intuit will offer QuickBooks and Quicken software for Android as will similar products from every other software maker. Same for Office products. HP will offer Android printer drivers and you'll be printing wirelessly from huge Excel spreadsheets like it's nothing.

And poof! Just like that - the Android OS will replace the Windows OS bringing the installed number of desktop & laptop PC's as we know it to a small fraction of what it is today. I am convinced this will change the face of our market substantially as there will be significantly less installed PC's in homes and businesses.

Smart phones and tablets will continue to chew through PC numbers in a big way in the coming next few years. Heck. Look at iPad's first year. It has taken a huge chunk out of laptop sales no doubt about it. Just wait until "mature" Android tablets hit the market next year.

 

[wtigger]

I've been hearing this "end of the PC as we know it" stuff for years... Whatever...

In my area of coverage, most people are using 3-9 year old PC's, simple mobile phones (NON-smart) and no whiz-bang stuff... Ya, maybe things will change someday, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Businesses will NOT be doing business on phones... POS (Point Of Sale) systems will NOT be phones... Let's get real, and logical here people...

I diversify enough that I'll keep making good money for years to come, and this is my best year EVER! And I'm a one-man band I'm shooting for $45-50k this year gross sales, and so far I'm on track...

When all the major computer makers go down in flames, THEN I'll rethink my business plan

 

[SmithFamilyDesigns]

And don't forget, the world is ending soon anyways.

To add constructively, I use android for a lot, but it will never replace Windows for me. There are top many proprietary software programs that I use ( and businesses in general). Along with that, businesses would not be able to adequately lock down a network dominated by phones.

 

[911cri]

The PC had been dying for how many years now?

IMHO

Again the sayers of doom have arrived. First off, can you see 1000 call center employees banging away data input on a tiny device like a phone? How about networking; sure there are cloud solutions, but not all companies want to go there.

What about pc based organizations, will they be this really big phone (IMB Introduces the MEGAPORTABLE phone)? Will they invest billions in retraining just so they can have the latest shabang? And how about security... The list goes on. Moot topic, and we're all going to die Dec of 2012 anyhow (as medamnit pointed out, we're all going to die soon), just like we died in 2000 and 2001, and before that... Things will change, finally, new changes in pc's; I was getting so tired of things never changing (sarcasm...). And remember, the majority are clones who have a comfort zone and do not like change, they like their big keyboards, they like the big screen, even when on the road. I see netbooks more and more in my practice, and pay to have them repairs, even against my recommendation. They don't like change, they like things simple. Also, consider the HTPC as well.

OMG is it Y2K again already?

 

[Wheelie]

... can you see 1000 call center employees banging away data input on a tiny device like a phone?

It is quite clear you did not read much of the thread (or you did not read for comprehension). You must like getting your news from headlines and titles only I guess? What I said was: "... Within 5 years the computing power of a smartphone will be nearly equal to today's PC and will connect right up to your keyboard, mouse and 24" LCD." When that day comes (and it will) Android will be a very competitive OS. It will knock down the number of installed PC's in your work area by a significant amount. And right now Android is basically a maintenance-free OS. Will it be in 5 years? Who knows.

But don't take it from me. Go read for yourselves. The writing is on the wall boyz.

Microsoft Windows decline a red flag PCs aren't becoming obsolescent, especially for businesses that have grown comfortable with Microsoft's operating system and Office productivity software. But consumers are holding on to the Windows-driven PCs that they already have and recent trends indicate that the tablet might be a suitable choice when they replace their machines. In the latest quarter, Microsoft said sales of the lightweight laptops known as "netbooks" fell 40 percent, another indication of tablets' momentum.

Microsoft Net Jumps 31%, but Windows Sales Decline
Weakness in Windows—one of Microsoft's main profit engines—sparked some concern among investors and analysts. "When that's the cornerstone of the company, that becomes really troubling longer term." But the sales of tablet computers, like the iPad, were another major factor and that could become a persistent problem for Microsoft. The category of the tablet computer created by Apple and its iPad is expanding quickly. Apple has sold 19.5 million iPads, and all the big PC makers and cellphone makers are making tablets. Most of the tablets on the market run either Apple’s operating system software or Google’s Android software. Manufacturers have shown little interest in using Microsoft Windows software to run a tablet.

 

[minc3d]

Yea a mobile phone is great for making calls, keeping in touch on the go, and the such. But don't for one second believe that phones will be the new workhorses of content creation anytime soon.

Until we find a better way to transfer thoughts en-masse into the digital realm than a KEYBOARD, I doubt smartphones of any sort will be taking "over" the Windows space.

Smartphones are a COMPLIMENT to a WINDOWS computer world and it will be a long time before this changes. You don't just reverse 15+ years of growth overnight in the tech industry.