The End of the Windows PC is Near

My first sentence in this post said: "I may be a bit dramatic here but ..." Some of what I've said is dramatic but it is not my intent to frighten anyone or cause discourse here. I am very interested in this technology and I enjoy watching mega corporations go after each others market share like this. This kind of change is good for humanity. I also want to keep abreast of the change so I know how to alter my business plans at the appropriate time.

Here's the future smart phone and it's impact on our business:
About 5 years from now smart phones will come very close to the horsepower of today's desktop or laptop PC. Couple that with cloud servers for data storage, and 10+ mbps Internet ... you will carry a very powerful personal computer the size of a pack of cigarettes in your pocket. That will very likely obsolete the laptop PC as we know it (about 50% of my business).

The thing that will make this technology work for the average consumer is this: FULL-SIZED KEYBOARD, MOUSE, AND LCD MONITOR on your desk that automatically mates up with your smart phone when you walk into the room. When that happens (not if) a significant number of desktop PC users will migrate away from the Windows desktop PC. How many desktop PC's will be eliminated? I do not know. But it will eliminate a significant number of them (let's be conservative and say 15%). So let's do the math: the loss of most laptop business (50%) and 15% of desktop business would be about 65% of my total business.

Will it completely eliminate the Windows PC? No it will not. And it will not for the reasons many of you have outlined above. But it will have a significant impact on the number of them we currently have in our market place.

I look forward to the day when I have the power of today's desktop PC in my pocket and be able to use it as a full-sized desktop PC. This would be awesome. I will embrace it and I will use it.

But I do not yet know what that means for my computer repair business except that it will change and I want to be prepared for that. Am I frightened? No. I have been through change many times before. I have a wide variety of technical skills and experience (over 30 years) and I know I will land on my feet because I always have. I am posting this because I see this change coming and I know it is inevitable. We need to watch this change because it will be significant and will affect our business volume.

I started this post to alert the community of the change that is coming but also to start a discussion about how to adapt to this change.



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Microsoft is a dying consumer brand:

"In this age, the race really is to the swift. You cannot afford to be an hour late or a dollar short," says Laura DiDio, principal analyst at ITIC. "Now the biggest question is: Can they [Microsoft] make it in the 21st century and compete with Google and Apple?"

Some influential analysts think not. Several have downgraded Microsoft's (MSFT, Fortune 500) stock in recent weeks, as PC sales continue to slow and Microsoft struggles with its tablet strategy. The company's stock is down more than 17% this year.



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Posted this in another thread when I meant to post it in here.

Ray Ozzie's take on the future

With so much available on the cloud and only improving, I can easily see the Iphone or whatever mobile widget of the future having a docking station option like notebooks do now. Full screen and keyboard. This is the key function that will take a chunk out of home desktops and notebooks.

Residential will go first. Think about how foolproof an Iphone is now. If mine goes up in flame all I have to do with a new one is plug it back in and restore from backup. There is no reason that backup has to be on a local PC. It can all be stored on Apple's servers (it basically is now).

So no, typing a term paper or work document would not work direct to an Iphone, but if it was docked with a full mouse and keyboard I can access my Office or Google apps docs right from the browser.
 
ATSCF said:
I think this is part of microsoft's answer and future

http://office365.microsoft.com/en-US/online-services.aspx

I think they dropped the ball with the phone though
Click to expand...


Didn't see that post, there you go. The backend is already here. Just need to dock those mobile devices to meet the requirements that are already met by mobile devices.

FTL: "An appropriate device, Internet connection, and supported Internet Explorer, Firefox or Safari browser are required. There are some differences between the features of the Office Web Apps and the Office 2010 applications."
 
Unless they come out with a Smart Phone that has a 24" screen I wont even be considering it to replace my PC and I don't think anyone else will unless they only do social networking and that's it.

I think the demise of the PC/Windows box is far from here ....

DOOM! DOOOOM I SAY! The end of the world is nigh upon us! haha
 
noah said:
Posted this in another thread when I meant to post it in here.

Ray Ozzie's take on the future

With so much available on the cloud and only improving, I can easily see the Iphone or whatever mobile widget of the future having a docking station option like notebooks do now. Full screen and keyboard. This is the key function that will take a chunk out of home desktops and notebooks.

Residential will go first. Think about how foolproof an Iphone is now. If mine goes up in flame all I have to do with a new one is plug it back in and restore from backup. There is no reason that backup has to be on a local PC. It can all be stored on Apple's servers (it basically is now).

So no, typing a term paper or work document would not work direct to an Iphone, but if it was docked with a full mouse and keyboard I can access my Office or Google apps docs right from the browser.
Click to expand...

And this is another reason I and many others will never go to cloud computing as long as I can get my desktop to boot.

I do not want my personal info/docs/financial info/letters/notes etc etc etc on a server that I do not have ultimate control over and can control who can access it.

People like security and privacy and until it is to the point where they stop making PC hardware and my system dies then ( at which point I will go back to hard copy ) then I will always favor using my own personal storage over cloud computing.
 
Actually, I have to disagree with you on your last point Screwloose. In general, I don't think the public gives much care at all to security or privacy. Facebook is a prime example. I've done my best to educate my customers (and friends and family) of the privacy/security risks associated with FB. But they continue to use it, most haven't even taken advantage of the (very slightly) improved features. Heck I still use it. In general, people love convenience more than they love security or privacy.

The biggest reticence I see towards acceptance of the cloud is more a fear of losing data. And that is disappearing more each day. I do think as far as consumer level systems, Wheelie is right It's not a gloom-and-doom thing, but a fact that we as a service business need to continually adapt and change to survive.

I think there is will continue to be a market for closed business systems, networks and software. There will be a need for inexpensive repair and service for residential. There will be a need for training and data conversion.

We have to continue to find niches in the tech markets and continue to fill the needs of our communities.

-Rance
 
Screwloose said:
Unless they come out with a Smart Phone that has a 24" screen I wont even be considering it to replace my PC...
Click to expand...

Did you read any of the other posts? Smartphones and tablets are only increasing in power. They don't need a 24" screen, they need a docking station that gives them a 24" screen.
The majority and average residential user can get everything they need with a web browser.
 
noah said:
Did you read any of the other posts? Smartphones and tablets are only increasing in power. They don't need a 24" screen, they need a docking station that gives them a 24" screen.
The majority and average residential user can get everything they need with a web browser.
Click to expand...
If Noah says smartphones are the future, there has to be a case. He got it right with the animals. :p

Seriously, smartphones are taking place of PCs for social networking applications, you don't really need a big screen to write the abbreviated 'txt spk' garbage that passes off as communication for the generation who accumulate friends like a commodity, but for serious use screens are still getting bigger. Both my desktop monitors are bigger than my lounge TV used to be and each new generation of smartphone I buy has ever bigger screens. Even Apple have realised that the iPhone works better when it's scaled up to the size of a paving slab (less the superfluous and troublesome phone functionality).

Sent from my 23" desktop PC.
 
Last edited:
noah said:
Did you read any of the other posts? Smartphones and tablets are only increasing in power. They don't need a 24" screen, they need a docking station that gives them a 24" screen.
The majority and average residential user can get everything they need with a web browser.
Click to expand...

I read most but missed the one about docking stations for Smartphones ... I still disagree. I just do not see it for the majority and most people do more than just simply social networking on their PCs .... Also there are a lot of gamers out there ( both console and PC ) and I do not see gamers giving up their PCs anytime soon. Consoles will never replace PCs and PCs certainly will not replace consoles and I remember when a few years back everyone was saying "Oh consoles are basically PCs so the PC is dead blah blah blah" Well consoles havent replaced PCs and neither will Smartphones .... simply because Smartphones are just that ... phones. Sure you can surf the web on your phone etc etc but I havent seen a phone yet that equals my PC and I doubt I will 5 years from now considering that the technology for PCs is still increasing along with all the other tech.

Dont get me wrong ... I have an HTC and I love it but it is not a replacement for my PC and I just do not see it as ever becoming one.
 
blackburgpchelp said:
Actually, I have to disagree with you on your last point Screwloose. In general, I don't think the public gives much care at all to security or privacy. Facebook is a prime example. I've done my best to educate my customers (and friends and family) of the privacy/security risks associated with FB. But they continue to use it, most haven't even taken advantage of the (very slightly) improved features. Heck I still use it. In general, people love convenience more than they love security or privacy.


-Rance
Click to expand...

Yeah I understand that but I believe most folks think "Well its just my page on FB and there isnt anything on there except my friends etc" but when folks start looking at personal financial info that they have and personal family info they get a lot more concerned.

Plus people are basically lazy ... they are waiting on FB to put in better security lol. I have even had some of my clients stop using FB after they got infected with a virus from there.... I myself do feel like I beat my head against the wall when trying to educate people on how to secure their info and PCs so I know what you are saying.
 
The problem with the whole docking thing is once the smart phone is removed from the dock, no one else can use the "computer". A smart phone is a very personal device, it's not meant to be shared.

Plus think of the overall cost of a smart phone compared to a computer. Take a typical family of 4, who can afford to purchase 4 smart phones and data plans for all them? What your proposing doesn't really make any sense. It's much more cost affective to buy a single computer for $800 that will last 3-5yrs (depending on how they use it) then to purchase smartphones for every member of the family and then pay a hefty data,voice,txt plan every month. PLus who gets to use the dock? Or are you going to buy 4 docks too?

And finally don't think for a second you'll save money by cutting your cable or dsl and just using 3g or 4g for your internet. Sure maybe 4G will be able to match the speeds of cable internet (I doubt they'll surpass them in real world speeds and latency) but cable/fiber will always be better then wireless technology since they will be able to allow the user to use more bandwidth for a lower cost and will all the buzz about streaming HD video across the net your gonna need bandwidth.
 
JRDtechnet said:
Sure maybe 4G will be able to match the speeds of cable internet (I doubt they'll surpass them in real world speeds and latency) but cable/fiber will always be better then wireless technology since they will be able to allow the user to use more bandwidth for a lower cost and will all the buzz about streaming HD video across the net your gonna need bandwidth.
Click to expand...

Ah yeah I didn't think about that too but there is no way my phone can beat the 20 mb connection I have right now ( plus they are putting in 30-50 mb fiber in my area as I type this ) much less the speed that will be available in 5 years.

I think where people start predicting doom and gloom is when they compare where one technology will be in x number of years vs where a specific technology is at the moment.

Course anything can happen but personally I just don't see it...
 
Screwloose said:
Ah yeah I didn't think about that too but there is no way my phone can beat the 20 mb connection I have right now ( plus they are putting in 30-50 mb fiber in my area as I type this ) much less the speed that will be available in 5 years.

I think where people start predicting doom and gloom is when they compare where one technology will be in x number of years vs where a specific technology is at the moment.

Course anything can happen but personally I just don't see it...
Click to expand...

I got a call a few months ago from the cable company wanting me to upgrade to 50 mbs for an extra $30 plus install. I told them where to stick it but thats besides the point.
 
When they (EPB) get the 30mb service installed which will also have my TV package included it will run me $105 a month so that is cheaper than what I pay Comcast now for my entire package (20mb+TV) $134 a month.

So to upgrade I will actually save almost $30 a month ... I cant wait!
 
Microsoft Prepares for the Demise of the PC

Even Microsoft itself is admitting (and preparing for) the end of the PC:

"Microsoft's latest earnings report shows the company is moving in the right direction as it adapts to a post-PC world ... pocketing cash from its legacy products is not what's impressing Wall Street and industry analysts. The optimism is driven by the speed with which Microsoft is moving to the cloud."


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^ Sorry I just don't see "cloud" computing becoming anything more then a supplement to the PC. First, broadband speeds, even 100mbit/s don't even come close to the performance of a regular 7200rpm hard drive (I get 73MB/s read which is equal to 584Mbit/s) and with high capacity SSD drives with transfer speeds of 200MB/s due soon I'd much rather access my files locally then have to worry again network congestion, problems with the IP, faulty router en-route to your cloud computer, etc. Second, I want my data close to me and safe. If cloud computing means not having a hard drive anymore then no way, count me out!

Now having the "cloud" supplement the PC is a different story. I already use skydrive to sync documents so I can view/edit/email from my DroidX when I'm on the road then it syncs back to my PC. Which is good because it's now backed up in 2 places. Which brings me to another cloud service, backup, that's great too! And I do like the idea of being able to install and run applications just as I would on my PC, again if I'm on the road but as I said above nothing beats the speed of a fast cpu and hard drive to open and work on large photos, load huge game world files, and large quickbook database files.

So basically at home your accessing files locally, on the road your accessing via cloud and everything syncs together and plays nice.
 
I think what most of you here are missing is that "consumers" drive the market. And most consumers are not techies and most consumers don't really know or even care where their data is stored as long as it is safe and secure. Beyond that they don't really know anything about data. In fact, I have customers that look at me and smile and then put their fingers into their ears and go "la la la la la la! I can't hear you!" when I try to tell them they need to back up their data in case of a crash. It makes their blood boil to even have to talk about it. They hate it. They also hate computers. They just want to be able to surf, shop, listen to music, do email, and send pictures. They don't want to hear a damn thing I have to say about doing virus scans, backing up data, reducing the size of their Outlook database, or defragging their disk. The smart phone of 5 years out will give them this relief.

Cloud computing fixes part of this for them in a transparent fashion. Cloud computing offers very good security for data storage for two reasons:
  1. It is locked away from prying eyes, and
  2. It won't get "lost" in a system crash.
Since most consumers do not work with large databases or large Photoshop files they are not going to care. Convenience will win. Their smart phone crashes? Hold down two buttons and poof! All their programs, data, e-mail, and music are safely restored. That's all they care about. Nothing pisses off my customers more than when I tell them their hard disk is bad and they lost everything (unless they want to spend $500 to $2,000 to do data recovery). They hate that. The cloud will stop this hate. Cloud = convenience and security. It will win for the average Joe.

The processing power of the 2010 smart phone is pretty awesome in case y'all haven't checked lately. Mine has the 800 MHz Snapdragon processor and it is very impressive. With Moore's Law at work: CPU power will increase significantly over the next 3 to 5 years. So much, in fact, that when coupled with a full-size keyboard, mouse, and 24" LCD - the typical consumer will have no reason not to own a smart phone instead of a PC. It'll do everything they need it to do and they won't need a technician to maintain it. The smart phone eliminates the Windows registry and the hard disk ... two items that compose about 70% of my business.

The first casualty will be the laptop PC. The second casualty will be a significant reduction in installed desktop PC's.



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