The End of the Windows PC is Near

[mjbasford]

Cloud computing offers very good security for data storage for two reasons:

1. It is locked away from prying eyes, and
2. It won't get "lost" in a system crash.

I have to Disagree with these two points. Yes, those are the selling features, but what happens when (not if) Google chrome os or Microsoft cloud storage (whatever they call it) where people are keeping tax files and important documents get hacked/exploited? Complete loss of credibility for that provider and cloud/off site storage as a whole.

Same thing with a data loss, albeit they will be backing up data so it is a very small chance of a significant data loss. Not to mention (just thought of it as i was typing) downtime? remember 99.9% uptime is still 88 hours down time/yr meaning ****** of people when they cant access what they want when they want.

 

[red12049]

I have to Disagree with these two points. Yes, those are the selling features, but what happens when (not if) Google chrome os or Microsoft cloud storage (whatever they call it) where people are keeping tax files and important documents get hacked/exploited? Complete loss of credibility for that provider and cloud/off site storage as a whole.

Same thing with a data loss, albeit they will be backing up data so it is a very small chance of a significant data loss. Not to mention (just thought of it as i was typing) downtime? remember 99.9% uptime is still 88 hours down time/yr meaning ****** of people when they cant access what they want when they want.

Anyone remember the great Blackberry server crash?

Rick

 

[iptech]

There was a major broadband outage in the UK this weekend, those who were reliant upon cloud computing were left high-and-dry. It doesn't take many events like this for customer confidence to be eroded away.

It's not the power and sophistication of hardware devices that will drive any future change, it will be the overall reliability of the infrastructure networks on which they rely.

I've had a 4.3" 1Ghz Snapdragon smartphone for over a year now and most of the exented data functionality remains unused - it's just still too slow and unreliable. Business users need reliability above speed and anything that's unrelaible will be inconvenient for them.

 

[Wheelie]

The Ten Businesses The Smartphone Has Destroyed

The power of the smartphone as the primary device used for news, entertainment, and communication will only increase. New 4G networks will allow subscribers to connect to the internet with handsets which will download data at speeds similar to those supplied by a home cable modem. Smartphone processors become more powerful each year and the devices get more storage capacity.

7. PCs
There are plenty of studies which insist that smartphones will begin to replace the PC as the common vehicle for accessing the Internet. Analyst firm Informa Telecoms & Media projects that smartphone traffic will increase 700% over the next five years. IT research firm Gartner predicts that smartphone sales will outpace PC sales by 2012, if not earlier. Google CEO Eric Schmidt, whose company’s mobile business has doubled over the last year, has expressed this sentiment as well. As smartphones continue to feature more memory, storage capability, and stronger processing power, consumers will increasingly rely on them for Internet use instead of their clunky PCs.

Smaller is better. The consumer (not us techies) will decide whether or not that is true. Sweeten the deal with an auto-connect 24" LCD and bluetooth keyboard and mouse and there goes the clunky old laptop and desktop windows-based PC as we know it. The smartphone coupled with the Android OS will take a huge chunk out of the existing Windows-based PC marketplace.

Not "if" but "when" is the question.

On a related side-note: they just put out a manual update for the T-Mobile G2 Phone that allows 4G tethering hotspot and WiFi calling and texting. Two very cool and important updates.


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[Checkmate]

I can see the points, but I do not agree. The data package plans of verizon and att are horrible. Joe consumer pays $100/avg for broadband, most carriers in US do not have bandwidth limits @ home. So Joe Consumer, decides to follow this path and just stick with his smartphone... just wait until he streams that Netflix movie, decides the he needs 15 more songs from iTunes... Suddenly his cell bill is $400 cause he is classified as a heavy user. The smartphone is only as good as the carrier you are getting your service from, and honestly they all suck.

 

[Xander]

I was having this conversation by email today with a friend. Here's what I last wrote to him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX-gTobCJHs
Mozilla Seabird -- phone becomes surrogate PC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oG3tLxEQEdg
Nokia concept "Morph", semi-related but cool

http://www.gizmag.com/skinput-body-touchscreen-keypad/14408/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3XPUdW9Ryg
"Skinput" The body becomes the input peripheral as well as the output.

These are 3 videos that have blown me away in the last year or so. Add in that future phones will be completely geo-aware and likely have biometric sensors to confirm that you are, indeed, you and our phones will become our security clearances, secure banking, etc.
"Oh, you're at work? Well, since I know it's you, I'm sending your passcode to the security door that we are heading towards."
"Sorry, stranger. This is Tom's phone. You are not allowed to use it."

 

[Wheelie]

I can see the points, but I do not agree. The data package plans of verizon and att are horrible. Joe consumer pays $100/avg for broadband, most carriers in US do not have bandwidth limits @ home. So Joe Consumer, decides to follow this path and just stick with his smartphone... just wait until he streams that Netflix movie, decides the he needs 15 more songs from iTunes... Suddenly his cell bill is $400 cause he is classified as a heavy user. The smartphone is only as good as the carrier you are getting your service from, and honestly they all suck.

I have two phones on T-Mobile with unlimited 4G Internet, unlimited nationwide calling, and unlimited texting for $140 per month (plus taxes is about $157). The 4G connection is very good here in this US metro area - it usually hovers around 5 to 8 mbps just about anywhere. Unbelievably there are a couple spots here in my home that reliably run at 9 to 10 mbps! My other daughter that has the iPhone has the new Netflix account for $8.99 and she stream movies and TV shows directly to her phone. She loves it. Also works on a desktop or laptop PC. (I suspect if she could connect her iPhone to a 24" LCD, keyboard and mouse she'd toss her PC's ... that day is coming fast).

While 3G really does lack performance for smartphone access - 4G speeds are significantly better. But you have to remember that 4G is just being rolled out. Pretty soon it will be the standard.

Some of y'all are simply ignoring the fact about Moore's Law and the amount of capital that Google, T-Mobile, Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, Motorola, Samsung, HTC, etc are pouring into smartphone hardware, software, and high speed broadband. Right now as we speak - the CEO's of these companies are betting their entire fortunes on smartphones. This is huge. It is epic. If y'all want to dissect the details of current day problems and stick your heads in the sand that's fine. I can't help that. But 5 years out brings to the market a very powerful processor in your hand and a very powerful and efficient Operating System (Android) which will significantly reduce the number of Windows desktop PC's. All this investment will likely make laptops totally obsolete and will greatly reduce the need for the desktop PC in the numbers we see today. The Android OS of 5 years out will likely be a very very stiff competitor for the Windows OS.


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[Wheelie]

... just wait until he streams that Netflix movie, decides the he needs 15 more songs from iTunes ... Suddenly his cell bill is $400 cause he is classified as a heavy user ...

Then he needs to man-up and get an unlimited data plan from his provider. T-mobile only charges $19.95 per month for that upgrade

 

[JAG Computers]

I have two phones on T-Mobile with unlimited 4G Internet, unlimited nationwide calling, and unlimited texting for $140 per month (plus taxes is about $157). The 4G connection is very good here in this US metro area - it usually hovers around 5 to 8 mbps just about anywhere. Unbelievably there are a couple spots here in my home that reliably run at 9 to 10 mbps! My other daughter that has the iPhone has the new Netflix account for $8.99 and she stream movies and TV shows directly to her phone. She loves it. Also works on a desktop or laptop PC. (I suspect if she could connect her iPhone to a 24" LCD, keyboard and mouse she'd toss her PC's ... that day is coming fast).

While 3G really does lack performance for smartphone access - 4G speeds are significantly better. But you have to remember that 4G is just being rolled out. Pretty soon it will be the standard.

Some of y'all are simply ignoring the fact about Moore's Law and the amount of capital that Google, T-Mobile, Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, Motorola, Samsung, HTC, etc are pouring into smartphone hardware, software, and high speed broadband. Right now as we speak - the CEO's of these companies are betting their entire fortunes on smartphones. This is huge. It is epic. If y'all want to dissect the details of current day problems and stick your heads in the sand that's fine. I can't help that. But 5 years out brings to the market a very powerful processor in your hand and a very powerful and efficient Operating System (Android) which will significantly reduce the number of Windows desktop PC's. All this investment will likely make laptops totally obsolete and will greatly reduce the need for the desktop PC in the numbers we see today. The Android OS of 5 years out will likely be a very very stiff competitor for the Windows OS.


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Then let them bet their fortunes on it. Just because they do something does not mean we should do it too. I have seen a lot of people get into a position merely because they knew someone and had some strings pulled, not because they worked to get there.



You know Wheelie, you keep providing sources to back up your claim but when I read them they contain a lot of "may soon push (insert name) out of the picture" "expected to decline" "may begin to decrease".

People have signaled the end of windows for a while and it still remains.

You keep pushing the point home and we get it. Please stop beating the horse, which by the way is dead.

 

[Wheelie]

What I learned when I was a manager in the corporate world was this: "people don't resist change, they resist being changed"

Possibly I am making some of you see and accept this too soon and too fast? It is uncomfortable for sure. It changes our businesses vastly. Who wants that? I certainly don't.

OK. We'll just wait until you chose this new technology for yourself and then you can come back and tell us how great it works. Then come back to this thread and thank me!


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[ell]

love this debate! now I'll throw in my 2 cents. Seeing that baby-boomers are still the largest demographic population (myself included!) I do love my nokia smartphone, BUT theres no way I'm taking ONLY that with me to the hotel, patio, couch with these bifocal-ed eyes! Let alone try to play tiger woods with the spouse through the home wifi! I think the old 15" lcd laptop will hang on for a bit yet.

 

[Wheelie]

love this debate! now I'll throw in my 2 cents. Seeing that baby-boomers are still the largest demographic population (myself included!) I do love my nokia smartphone, BUT theres no way I'm taking ONLY that with me to the hotel, patio, couch with these bifocal-ed eyes! Let alone try to play tiger woods with the spouse through the home wifi! I think the old 15" lcd laptop will hang on for a bit yet.

I have several business customers that now regularly travel without a laptop and rely on their smartphone. They love not having that extra bag.

Smartphone mfgrs are working to bring external display connectivity to the smartphone. Bluetooth keyboard & mouse connectivity already exists. Wireless printer drivers are also currently in development.

I think Motorola already has an ext HDMI port on one of their smartphones.

 

[ell]

I have several business customers that now regularly travel without a laptop and rely on their smartphone. They love not having that extra bag.

Smartphone mfgrs are working to bring external display connectivity to the smartphone. Bluetooth keyboard & mouse connectivity already exists. Wireless printer drivers are also currently in development.

I think Motorola already has an ext HDMI port on one of their smartphones.

yes, I see that as being a huge market, but it would still involve carrying 2-3 items if you want to quickly move from one place to the next, the laptop and ipad I think will keep that market.

 

[Appleby]

I was at a wealthy business customer's home this week to look at his desktop computer. He wanted a basic tune up and have me check everything out. He said that since he's gotten his iPad, he rarely if ever uses the 2 yr old desktop and no longer uses his laptop at all. He said he won't replace the desktop in his home office and from now on he will use only his iPad and his office pc. He said he has no need for a laptop when traveling since (and I quote) "My iPad can do every single thing I'd ever want to do with a laptop while on vacation". He remotely accesses his work pc via the iPad also. His wife has given up her laptop completely also for her iPad, however she keeps a desktop that she keeps Quicken on.

Ok let me add some perspective. They are in their late 50's to early 60's, have always had multiple computers each but honestly don't have alot of real knowledge. Quicken, Word, Excel, Outlook and IE are pretty much all they do at home or in the office. But either way, here is an excellent customer who has had 4 home computers (2 laptops, 2 desktops) for he and his wife. Now 2 iPads have already completely replaced the 2 laptops and when his desktop finally craters, it won't be replaced. So assuming she keeps her desktop, their computer load goes from 4 to 1. Say what you want, but that is not good for my business.

Also the thought of photos, music, Word doc etc on their home pc (and not on the iPads) wasn't even a consideration for them. They said everything they need is online and if it's not, they don't need it that bad. The kids can email them photos.....

 

[Wheelie]

There was a major broadband outage in the UK this weekend, those who were reliant upon cloud computing were left high-and-dry. It doesn't take many events like this for customer confidence to be eroded away.

It's not the power and sophistication of hardware devices that will drive any future change, it will be the overall reliability of the infrastructure networks on which they rely.

I've had a 4.3" 1Ghz Snapdragon smartphone for over a year now and most of the exented data functionality remains unused - it's just still too slow and unreliable. Business users need reliability above speed and anything that's unrelaible will be inconvenient for them.

Get this: the latest update for the G2 came out a week or two ago to fix a few known issues. The update included a WiFi hotspot tethering feature that allows using a PC and the G2 phone over the 4G network! Wow! As I write this my PC is wirelessly connected to my smart phone and I am surfing the net at 6 Mbps down and 3.5 Mbps up! What an awesome feature to have if the net goes down!! Or if you have no broadband connection but you do have 4G service.

 

[Wheelie]

The Death of the Hard Drive

... "Stop worrying about when the hard drive in your computer will die. Google wants to kill it permanently anyway ... The new Google Chrome operating system, which was unveiled Tuesday, as well as hints and suggestions from Apple and Microsoft, offers us a preview of the PC of the future. And it will come without that familiar whirring disk that has been the data heart of the PC for the past 25 years. "


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[Xander]

My two current comps don't have a "faint whirring disk" anyway (SSD).

Incidentally, lifehacker had a post about "Spoon.com" which promises to virtualize a bunch of apps for you. They've got a lot that I think the average user would find useful. Take that concept, add in an embedded operating system and a highspeed connection and you don't ever need to install software on your system. It's all sandboxed and fresh each time it's run with all your settings/specs saved to the server.

 

[Wheelie]

Verizon 4G Network Speed Tests and Results
"35Mb downstream and 16Mb upstream and we were astonished. We tested another location which was Indianapolis, Indiana and got 21Mb downstream and 8Mb upstream and our tests to Chicago were about the same."


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[vdub12]

Yeah that will be very useful to people on dialup, satellite or 2G. lol.

 

[tankman1989]

I agree that Windows is in it's last few years, decade at most, of dominance (and it should be as it is a horrible OS).

The way I see it if Android programmers can keep the OS trim and un-bloated then I think they will have a hands down winner and will gain market share and compatibility with standard PC hardware (Intel / AMD CPU's, and GPU's).

I think everyone should take a look at their current PC's and compare them to the original Pentium's or even 486's. I do not think my Intel Quad core 3.2 Ghz with 8GB ram, 1Gb video, 6TB hd is any faster than a new install of Win 95/98 when opening Word or Excel of the similar year.

As the hardware got faster, Microsoft just threw in more crap that inevitably corrupted and slowed down my machine. I don't think my quad core is a time saver in doing word processing, spread sheets or even basic low quality web surfing. What has all this speed gotten us if the OS is a morbidly obese retarded schizophrenic?

I look at the business world and think they have been swindled for the last 25 years by the PC/software industries. For the amount of $$ they spend all they get is more eye candy instead of more functionality and less processing times. The PC is supposed to be a time saver and a faster PC is supposed to run faster, but not if it is a Windows machine!

Does anyone else agree that the increase in processor & hard drive speed is no where near proportionate to the speed increase/time decrease of the same task performed by the computer?