Hercomputers
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That's it right there!
It takes me about 10 to send a text and I type 65 wpm..on a keyboard attached to a.......pc-
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The End of the Windows PC is Near
- Thread starter Wheelie
- Start date
That's it right there!
It takes me about 10 to send a text and I type 65 wpm..on a keyboard attached to a.......pc-
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L
layoric
Guest
HA!
Yeah right... Look up OLD ads from commodore days, amigas, etc. Same thing, different channel.
Whatever way things go:
1. It'll take a LONG time.
2. There are always those resistant to change.
3. There are TONS of other ways to make a living - websites, screen repairs, component fixes/swaps, data recovery, networks, tutorials, databases, consoles, programming, etc... the list goes on!
Things will ALWAYS change - for sure. However, how many days can you add to your life by worrying about things you cannot change?
Yeah right... Look up OLD ads from commodore days, amigas, etc. Same thing, different channel.
Whatever way things go:
1. It'll take a LONG time.
2. There are always those resistant to change.
3. There are TONS of other ways to make a living - websites, screen repairs, component fixes/swaps, data recovery, networks, tutorials, databases, consoles, programming, etc... the list goes on!
Things will ALWAYS change - for sure. However, how many days can you add to your life by worrying about things you cannot change?
Jacob Anthony
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I personally thinks that you can choose to whether you are going to let your business be affected in a negative or positive way.
For me the smart move would be to try and stay ahead of the curve by looking for vulnerabilities in the newer technologies such as new OS's and new devices like tablet pc's and the even newer developments such as google tv set-top boxes.
For those who do virus/ malware removal it should be like "thinking like the enemy" and aiming to pre-empt what vulnerabilities they are going to exploit.
I mean with the popularity of android tablets and even more so Ipads, there's bound to be vulnerabilities that someone will try to exploit.
Only a fool would assume that these technologies are impervious to viral/malware attacks and the ones who will make hay are the techs who make it their business to find out the vulnerabilities of these devices and take the time to work out how to fix them.
So in essence only you can choose whether your business will be adversely affected by these developments
For me the smart move would be to try and stay ahead of the curve by looking for vulnerabilities in the newer technologies such as new OS's and new devices like tablet pc's and the even newer developments such as google tv set-top boxes.
For those who do virus/ malware removal it should be like "thinking like the enemy" and aiming to pre-empt what vulnerabilities they are going to exploit.
I mean with the popularity of android tablets and even more so Ipads, there's bound to be vulnerabilities that someone will try to exploit.
Only a fool would assume that these technologies are impervious to viral/malware attacks and the ones who will make hay are the techs who make it their business to find out the vulnerabilities of these devices and take the time to work out how to fix them.
So in essence only you can choose whether your business will be adversely affected by these developments
Wheelie
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Just from glancing over some of the comments posted here I think some of you may not fully grasp the reality of what is happening. Let me try to clarify.
Computing power is so rapidly accelerating while size is decreasing that you can now carry around a fully functional PC in your pocket. It is a PC that needs little if any maintenance by a tech.
The game-changer here is not only the incredible CPU power of this technology (esp when you look out 5 years) but also that the smart phone may also be used just like a full-sized PC in about 15 seconds by connecting it to a large LCD monitor and full-size keyboard and mouse. This hand-held device has currently a 10 mbps Internet connection without the need for a DSL or cable connection. This reality is here. The increase in CPU power and functionality will only increase as the next months and years tick by.
My daughter got the Droid X about two months ago and her laptop is now sitting in her bedroom and collecting dust under her bed. She does everything on the Droid (Facebook, email, surfing the net, texting, etc). Here is an example of one less PC that is in the marketplace.
Today, Microsoft announces their new lineup for the mobile market. They waaay underestimated the smart phone mobile market and have been behind the curve since day one of the smart phone war.
Article highlights: WP7 is Microsoft's first significant update to its mobile operating system in 18 months and its release comes on the heels of the disastrous launch of a "Kin" line of mobile phones.
"The Kin was an abject failure," said IDC's Llamas of the devices aimed at the youth market which were pulled from stores after just two months.
According to technology research firm Gartner, Microsoft's share of the worldwide mobile operating system market will fall to 4.7 per cent this year from 8.7 per cent last year. It is expected to rise to 5.2 per cent by 2011 but decline to 3.9 per cent in 2014.
Will all this kill the desktop PC as we know it? No. But it will significantly reduce the footprint of installed desktops and laptops in our market areas. This also will affect Microsoft's dominance in computing significantly. Just be aware of this and how it will affect your businesses in the next couple of years.
Computing power is so rapidly accelerating while size is decreasing that you can now carry around a fully functional PC in your pocket. It is a PC that needs little if any maintenance by a tech.
The game-changer here is not only the incredible CPU power of this technology (esp when you look out 5 years) but also that the smart phone may also be used just like a full-sized PC in about 15 seconds by connecting it to a large LCD monitor and full-size keyboard and mouse. This hand-held device has currently a 10 mbps Internet connection without the need for a DSL or cable connection. This reality is here. The increase in CPU power and functionality will only increase as the next months and years tick by.
My daughter got the Droid X about two months ago and her laptop is now sitting in her bedroom and collecting dust under her bed. She does everything on the Droid (Facebook, email, surfing the net, texting, etc). Here is an example of one less PC that is in the marketplace.
Today, Microsoft announces their new lineup for the mobile market. They waaay underestimated the smart phone mobile market and have been behind the curve since day one of the smart phone war.
Article highlights: WP7 is Microsoft's first significant update to its mobile operating system in 18 months and its release comes on the heels of the disastrous launch of a "Kin" line of mobile phones.
"The Kin was an abject failure," said IDC's Llamas of the devices aimed at the youth market which were pulled from stores after just two months.
According to technology research firm Gartner, Microsoft's share of the worldwide mobile operating system market will fall to 4.7 per cent this year from 8.7 per cent last year. It is expected to rise to 5.2 per cent by 2011 but decline to 3.9 per cent in 2014.
Will all this kill the desktop PC as we know it? No. But it will significantly reduce the footprint of installed desktops and laptops in our market areas. This also will affect Microsoft's dominance in computing significantly. Just be aware of this and how it will affect your businesses in the next couple of years.
IJAC
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This will all be irrelevant anyway as of December 2012.According to the Mayan's that will be our last day on earth.
I am in a little different position than most in 5 years I will be working for Uncle Sam as in retired. I may fiddle around some just to stay busy but no more 10 or 12 hour days for me.
IJAC
I am in a little different position than most in 5 years I will be working for Uncle Sam as in retired. I may fiddle around some just to stay busy but no more 10 or 12 hour days for me.
IJAC
hondablaster
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Its not the greatest opinion but one I have reached because I am worried myself as I am just emerging into the field.
The over diversification of products will make some of us more valuable. 11 years ago we had a VCR and a win 98 PC. Now everyone has/wants a laptop some windows, some mac, a blu ray, a playstation, and xbox, streaming netflix, with a 2 TB NAS for saving photos amongst them all.............
Jobs will have more client facing and less behind the scenes, you will need to be sharp clean cut and social-able for most of your job will be educating users on how to merge all this junk together.
Its a mix of both divergence and convergence the confusion of the average home/small business user will hopefully keep us needed indefinite. I think those who insist on keeping it just windows desktop PC will be hurting the most.
If I had to place money on where growth is at I would say networking, cloud storage expertise, and data recovery. And if your talking about residential, home networks! I think some emphasis needs to be put on the "home network" instead of the "home PC"
EDIT: as for the OP this technology is in its infancy and as people become more and more reliant on the device their need to maintain it will increase. As the threats posed to it will in unison. The fact your daughter does her basics on the device do not mean a 25 year old college student or a lawyer will use the device as the work horse of choice. The ball has changed but the game has not.
The over diversification of products will make some of us more valuable. 11 years ago we had a VCR and a win 98 PC. Now everyone has/wants a laptop some windows, some mac, a blu ray, a playstation, and xbox, streaming netflix, with a 2 TB NAS for saving photos amongst them all.............
Jobs will have more client facing and less behind the scenes, you will need to be sharp clean cut and social-able for most of your job will be educating users on how to merge all this junk together.
Its a mix of both divergence and convergence the confusion of the average home/small business user will hopefully keep us needed indefinite. I think those who insist on keeping it just windows desktop PC will be hurting the most.
If I had to place money on where growth is at I would say networking, cloud storage expertise, and data recovery. And if your talking about residential, home networks! I think some emphasis needs to be put on the "home network" instead of the "home PC"
EDIT: as for the OP this technology is in its infancy and as people become more and more reliant on the device their need to maintain it will increase. As the threats posed to it will in unison. The fact your daughter does her basics on the device do not mean a 25 year old college student or a lawyer will use the device as the work horse of choice. The ball has changed but the game has not.
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Wheelie
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Ah. Good point. Forgot about that. Never mind my ramblings.
BTW - as I logged onto here from my smart phone to type this reply the website displayed a popup that recognized my Android OS and offered an app to make it more compatible with the hand-held. Even Technibble staff recognizes the trend toward smart phones.
Wheelie
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Wheelie
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Right now (today's technology) I have a 10+ mbps connection on my smart phone while sitting in my living room WITHOUT my home network. This is a whopping 67% speed increase over my AT&T DSL connection for my desktop PC's! (it's 6 only mbps).
The mobile phone providers are moving their networks toward these speeds as the standard for smart phone access (4G and HSPA+). In 5 or 10 years cable/DSL internet to your home may be obsolete.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Pc Fixed Right
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Who moved my cheese ... change is bound to happen we'll just have to adapt to it. This is kind of like survival of the fittest...those who adapt to changes around them are the most apt to move forward and so adapt to a new business environment as needed and acquire new skill sets along the way.
hondablaster
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Right now (today's technology) I have a 10+ mbps connection on my smart phone while sitting in my living room WITHOUT my home network. This is a whopping 67% speed increase over my AT&T DSL connection for my desktop PC's! (it's 6 only mbps).
The mobile phone providers are moving their networks toward these speeds as the standard for smart phone access (4G and HSPA+). In 5 or 10 years cable/DSL internet to your home may be obsolete.
Don't shoot the messenger.
No doubt at all that this is true.... , but to use the word obsolete is far too strong.
If cable and dsl would be obsolete in 5 years, then why isn't the land line telephone extinct. Mobile phones have been around for 15+ years and still the landline thrives, email was going to kill the fax..... well its still alive and kicking! I think what you say is indeed true but your time frames are unrealistic and can be self depreciating.
Its important to maintain a healthy frame of mind, and you may create a self fulfilling prophecy if you feel the end is coming soon for you and your skill, you thus create that end!
I hope it didn't seem as if I was killing the messenger. Just politely debating. (text can be misinterpreted)
I also pay careful attention to people who choose the smart phone over the PC and what I find is that those people never really gave a crap for modern computing in the first place. (the lazy end user) If there was no smart phone they would still be creating new email accounts every month because they were too lazy to remember their password. If anything they don't care about anything but facebook and youtube and online poker, they never used the PC for anything good or healthy
Are we really losing people to these things, I doubt it. Basically when its comes to crunch time and production. They aren't doing taxes,editing movies, spreadsheets, and looking for a job via droid.And last of all my DOCSIS 3 modem gets 60Mbps!
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Wheelie
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I realize this is a very provocative thread but I also believe that this is a real threat to our businesses and that is why I started this thread. This is not meant to be a dooms day thread - rather one that points out a problem in hopes of generating some real dialog about how to fill a gap that is coming.
There will be a significant reduction in the installed "traditional PC" footprint due to the smart phone. This will be especially notable in the 3 to 5 year time-frame.
This technology is so rapidly advancing because of:
This will allow the smart phone to easily replace the desktop/laptop PC. The convenience and ease of portability speaks for itself. The power these devices have and will achieve is significant. We are now fully into 10+ mbps Internet connection with these devices without the need for a traditional home broadband connection. The mobile providers are fighting tethering right now but there will be a day when they embrace it. That will be huge.
We are well underway into an "all out war" in the Smart Phone arena. The reason this is a valid threat to the PC repair business is that the smart phone is so easy to fix that any user can reload it and get their data back on it in a matter of minutes thus eliminating the need for a tech.
Two things compose about 40% of my PC repair business:
1) Hard Disks (dead Hard Disks or just with corrupt sectors)
2) Registry problems or "other" OS problems requiring a OS reload
Both of those issues go away with the smart phone as far as I am concerned. They don't have a Hard Disk and a reload is as easy as pressing and holding two buttons.
Another 20% to 30% of my business is in wireless networking so the smart phone takes that away too. So 60% of my business is being threatened by these devices.
Will all desktops go away? No. There will still be desktop PC's to work on. Especially so in the workplace. But this will certainly slice into the overall footprint of installed PC's we now enjoy. That will make you and I compete harder against each other for the remaining slice of the pie. It will also cause us technicians to have to shift focus into other technical areas to make up for lost business.
Right now in my customer area (a major US metro area) I have more than enough business every day to make a very good living without doing much if any advertising (almost all word of mouth). I like that. But I am always looking ahead at what my business looks like in the months and years ahead and I see the smart phone as a threat to installed desktop/laptop PC's.
I hope this topic opens up dialog about how we as techs can take advantage of this shift. It probably cannot be answered right now at this moment but in the months to come we need to be aware of this threat and how we can accommodate it. It appears to me to be on the very near horizon and thus will begin to deplete our revenue.
Ref: Android as the Viral Game Changer
There will be a significant reduction in the installed "traditional PC" footprint due to the smart phone. This will be especially notable in the 3 to 5 year time-frame.
This technology is so rapidly advancing because of:
- the efficiency & speed of the mobile phone Operating Systems,
- the CPU power that is here now & coming in the near future (this is big),
- the broadband speeds were are now seeing on these devices (10+ mbps), and
- the ease of connectivity of these devices to full-sized I/O devices.
This will allow the smart phone to easily replace the desktop/laptop PC. The convenience and ease of portability speaks for itself. The power these devices have and will achieve is significant. We are now fully into 10+ mbps Internet connection with these devices without the need for a traditional home broadband connection. The mobile providers are fighting tethering right now but there will be a day when they embrace it. That will be huge.
We are well underway into an "all out war" in the Smart Phone arena. The reason this is a valid threat to the PC repair business is that the smart phone is so easy to fix that any user can reload it and get their data back on it in a matter of minutes thus eliminating the need for a tech.
Two things compose about 40% of my PC repair business:
1) Hard Disks (dead Hard Disks or just with corrupt sectors)
2) Registry problems or "other" OS problems requiring a OS reload
Both of those issues go away with the smart phone as far as I am concerned. They don't have a Hard Disk and a reload is as easy as pressing and holding two buttons.
Another 20% to 30% of my business is in wireless networking so the smart phone takes that away too. So 60% of my business is being threatened by these devices.
Will all desktops go away? No. There will still be desktop PC's to work on. Especially so in the workplace. But this will certainly slice into the overall footprint of installed PC's we now enjoy. That will make you and I compete harder against each other for the remaining slice of the pie. It will also cause us technicians to have to shift focus into other technical areas to make up for lost business.
Right now in my customer area (a major US metro area) I have more than enough business every day to make a very good living without doing much if any advertising (almost all word of mouth). I like that. But I am always looking ahead at what my business looks like in the months and years ahead and I see the smart phone as a threat to installed desktop/laptop PC's.
I hope this topic opens up dialog about how we as techs can take advantage of this shift. It probably cannot be answered right now at this moment but in the months to come we need to be aware of this threat and how we can accommodate it. It appears to me to be on the very near horizon and thus will begin to deplete our revenue.
Ref: Android as the Viral Game Changer
Martyn
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Basically you have to move with the times. Us oldies on here never did computers all those years ago in fact there was no such thing as a calculator at school 
In the 70s I was a service technician repairing at component level in the field! I can't even remember my resistor colour codes now. Although I have had computers since the the early days I had no idea of networks until at 49 I decided to move up my knowledge, did my MCSE & CCNA. We have to move along with the times as a person and now as a business, it's not new.
In the 70s I was a service technician repairing at component level in the field! I can't even remember my resistor colour codes now. Although I have had computers since the the early days I had no idea of networks until at 49 I decided to move up my knowledge, did my MCSE & CCNA. We have to move along with the times as a person and now as a business, it's not new.
Wheelie
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Stumbled across this article today
"... people immediately contend that nobody’s going to want to do without a large screen, keyboard, and mouse or other pointing device in all situations. I agree. But there’s no reason why you couldn’t use all of those with a smartphone–or, in fact, why there couldn’t be displays and keyboards that sensed when your smartphone was present and connected to it automatically, instantly, wirelessly, and seamlessly. All the technology exists right now, and if I could buy a little box that let me use my iPhone with my 21-inch flat panel and comfy keyboard, I’d snap it up in a nanosecond."
and: "... I’m confident that the time will come when “PC” means a phone-like device you carry in your pocket, but I’m way too cautious to pin a date on that eventuality. But how’s this? Come 2014, I’ll be startled if the world isn’t full of folks who use smartphones to do the things we do today with laptops…and if those people don’t think of their phones as computers, period. If I turn out to be wrong, remind me and I’ll eat my hat. "
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Smart Phone corporate leaders are making massive $$ investments to displace Microsoft (the desktop & laptop PC) ... companies like Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T, Apple, Sprint, Google, HTC, Motorola, Samsung, etc are all working very hard to take a piece of Microsoft's $450+ Billion market cap
"Verizon has trial Long Term Evolution networks in Boston and Seattle now delivering 10 Mbits/s down to users and as much as 5 Mbits/s up to the net. One idea it is mulling to drive use of that network is a docking station with keyboard, camera and monitor that turns a smartphone into a full PC.
"With gigahertz processors, the divide between the smartphone and PC has narrowed," said Chen. "That's Microsoft's worst nightmare because there is no Windows or Office revenue, but there's a big Google Apps and Verizon cloud computing opportunity there," he added."
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They are going for the MS jugular. Will it replace the Windows PC completely? No. Will it knock the numbers of installed desktop and laptop PC's running Windows in half or more? Very likely.
I think 4 things will make the smart phone successful at taking significant market share away from Microsoft (thus displacing PC's):
.
"... people immediately contend that nobody’s going to want to do without a large screen, keyboard, and mouse or other pointing device in all situations. I agree. But there’s no reason why you couldn’t use all of those with a smartphone–or, in fact, why there couldn’t be displays and keyboards that sensed when your smartphone was present and connected to it automatically, instantly, wirelessly, and seamlessly. All the technology exists right now, and if I could buy a little box that let me use my iPhone with my 21-inch flat panel and comfy keyboard, I’d snap it up in a nanosecond."
and: "... I’m confident that the time will come when “PC” means a phone-like device you carry in your pocket, but I’m way too cautious to pin a date on that eventuality. But how’s this? Come 2014, I’ll be startled if the world isn’t full of folks who use smartphones to do the things we do today with laptops…and if those people don’t think of their phones as computers, period. If I turn out to be wrong, remind me and I’ll eat my hat. "
---------------------------------------------------------
Smart Phone corporate leaders are making massive $$ investments to displace Microsoft (the desktop & laptop PC) ... companies like Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T, Apple, Sprint, Google, HTC, Motorola, Samsung, etc are all working very hard to take a piece of Microsoft's $450+ Billion market cap
"Verizon has trial Long Term Evolution networks in Boston and Seattle now delivering 10 Mbits/s down to users and as much as 5 Mbits/s up to the net. One idea it is mulling to drive use of that network is a docking station with keyboard, camera and monitor that turns a smartphone into a full PC.
"With gigahertz processors, the divide between the smartphone and PC has narrowed," said Chen. "That's Microsoft's worst nightmare because there is no Windows or Office revenue, but there's a big Google Apps and Verizon cloud computing opportunity there," he added."
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They are going for the MS jugular. Will it replace the Windows PC completely? No. Will it knock the numbers of installed desktop and laptop PC's running Windows in half or more? Very likely.
I think 4 things will make the smart phone successful at taking significant market share away from Microsoft (thus displacing PC's):
- Moore's Law
- Continuing improvements in the smart phone OS's (iPhone, Android, etc)
- Improvements and greater investment in 4G and Wimax wireless networks
- Docking stations for full-sized LCD's, Keyboards and Mice
.
basic
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A link is just that, a link. All evidence is still anecdotal at best. Will the computing paradigm shift? Yeah, probably so. Just because some media pundit says that or because your daughter stopped using conventional computers doesn't mean anything. The end is not that near, in my opinion, but do we have to prepare ourselves for that eventual shift? Probably. I equate the current situation to Flash vs. HTML5. Everyone has said how Flash is going to die soon. It hasn't happened yet.
JRDtechnet
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240 million copies of windows 7 sold this year. The personal computer is anywhere. Native running applications will always be richer with more functionality then a cloud based app. I see smartphones and internet only devices complementing the pc not replacing it. Like how a microwave complements a range. Sure you probably use a microwave more but if u want a good cooked meal then ur gonna use the stove and oven.
JAG Computers
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This is how I feel about this too. I see so many naysayers and it gets irritating. The smartphone compliments the pc and does not replace it in the slightest.
PcTek9
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I understand. My old nick of PcTek said this same thing back in 2006 or 2007 on technibble, and many others have said it since. The result of it is this...
Im not play vid-juh games on a cell phone, or even a tablet...
I dont want tiny devices at each employees desk... Where someone could just take customer data out the door in their pocket as an entire pc...
Businesses will always need computer support.
I do see everything getting smaller and less energy consuming...
Frankly I'm sick of lugging giant computers around everywhere...
If they were the size of a pack of cigarettes I'd like them better.
Why can't we make cd's and dvd's as big as quarter, and the drives and such the same size?
My thought is primarily this...
big keyboard, big lcd screen but thin, small computer main box.
i now open my post to your disagreement or applause.
Im not play vid-juh games on a cell phone, or even a tablet...
I dont want tiny devices at each employees desk... Where someone could just take customer data out the door in their pocket as an entire pc...
Businesses will always need computer support.
I do see everything getting smaller and less energy consuming...
Frankly I'm sick of lugging giant computers around everywhere...
If they were the size of a pack of cigarettes I'd like them better.
Why can't we make cd's and dvd's as big as quarter, and the drives and such the same size?
My thought is primarily this...
big keyboard, big lcd screen but thin, small computer main box.
i now open my post to your disagreement or applause.
Checkmate
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And still no one says the one reason why we will still have business. P**n. iPhone and Android both have p*rn block apps. So as long as that industry survives, PCs will survive.
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