My take on the PC industry "dying" ?

[hightechrex]

For starters I don't see it happening..

In order for a tablet or smartphone to truly take the place of a laptop, it would have to eventually become one. Which If you haven't noticed, is already happening. Both worlds can't cancel each other or neither would exist... Sort of a paradox if you ask me. Phones are becoming tablets (getting bigger), tablets are becoming more portable (smaller), laptops are starting to take on all tasks, and desktops are being replaced by all in ones (basically giant tablets). Ironic, since All-In-Ones are actually true "desktops," since the whole machine actually fits on top of a desk. As for mobile devices, as soon as you slap a keyboard on a tablet, in essence it becomes a laptop and vice versa. The synergy between all the devices is actually necessary to their survival.

Many tech writers, bloggers, and industry professionals alike are all set on believing that tablets and smartphones are here to replace laptops. While the software companies and manufacturers have an entirely different goal in mind. The future is in a convergence of all our devices and appliances and it's happening as we speak. Of course laptop sales will continue to take a hit, it's sort of a backwards evolution and a necessary step. "Smart" stoves, refrigerators, microwaves, cars are already cropping up. Your laptop, all-in-one, and even your smart tv act as a "hub" for all your mobile devices. Without powerful laptop and desktop machines, your mobile devices would have no content and in return mobile devices serve as an avenue for the distribution of said content. One can not exist without the other..

My 2cents..

 

[16k_zx81]

For starters I don't see it happening..

Thanks for an interesting conversation starter

Im not much for theorizing, but here's what I am seeing.

1. 40% of my business now is tablet repairs, and growing.

2. local retailers are selling a lot of laptops now under the "magic" $500 mark. that means the cost of a new laptop is often only $150 more than a lot of common repairs.

I wont go on at length about this, but I remember years ago, I used to be able to charge "full tote odds" on laptop repairs. For example, if I did OS reinstall, a jack replacement, and a screen replacement one one machine, I could charge parts plus labour for all repairs one the machine, cumulatively. An $800 laptop repair was not uncommon because the purchase price of the machines was often $2000-$3000. Not any more.

Now labour is a flat-rate and whatever parts they need, otherwise the cost of repair exceeds the purchase price of a replacement.

this has happened within about 3 years.

3. Last week I bought a quad core, 2gbRam device with HDMI out and capable of playing 4K video for around $200

This is a Chinese android tablet Extremely powerful, runs for 6 hours without needing a charge, and - in terms of processing power - can easily replace a desktop PC running email and Office 365 and whatever else.

-

Its not a matter of the shape or the hardware/OS infrastructure of devices. Its no longer about "laptop OR phone OR tablet".

Laptop / tablet / desktop are all converging in cheap, disposable machines that are at a price point that allows them to be thrown out and replaced instead of being repaired.

The devices are becoming more portable, less reliant on being close to power sources, and more capable of syncing over networks and the Internet, making localised storage a thing of the past.

consumers are flocking to the 'tablet' market because its so convenient, hassle-free, and easy to use.

The other significant change of this technology is that it requires less 'expertise' to make it work - and even your grandma (in most cases) can pick it up and use it. If granny does need a hand, an 'expert' is no longer one of us, but a member of her family or community - because of the very low level of actual technical expertise required and the fast learning curve to 'mastery'

-

Im not putting a timeframe on what we do now, and have been doing. But the changes that are happening are happening very quickly and consumer behaviour is also shifting very fast from a 'break and fix' model to a 'throw out and replace' model.

I can't see myself running out of ipad repairs any time soon- quite the opposite, actually - I expect them to grow for some time.

I can see a diminishing rate of laptops coming in, and more customers opting to replace and toss, rather than pay the $300 I need for some parts+labour repairs.

Not sure what else is going to happen from here, but Im going to be focusing my energies on moving further into the tablet and phone repair game, and also will be trying to obtain some 'hard skills' that are marketable to end users in terms of supporting businesses using them.

I really can't see laptop repairs being profitable or popular for much longer

.

 

[nlinecomputers]

Personally I think if you are in the residential PC business you'll be out of that business in 3-5 years. The era of the home PC is over. Replaced by disposable devices. Even iPad and phone repair isn't going to last the long haul. They'll be too cheap. The only saving grace of that is that our devices are becoming more interconnected. Places that do home theater systems are going to take over the so called home PC business because much of what they do will be integrated. Smart TVs will eventually be able to surf the net and run office apps as needed or play what ever FPS game that is out there. So companies will need to be able to install all of that and get all of your toys talking to each other.

Business focus isn't going to change as much. If you create a lot of content as most office workers do you need real keyboards, mice and monitors.

 

[altrenda]

I fully agree that the "PC Repair Business based on Malware Removal and Failing Hard drives" is on it's way out.

The transition to portable, cloud based systems is underway for personal use. It's a little further behind for businesses, but it's coming as well.

There is also going to be an impact on Managed Services as more things move to the cloud.

The best way, to me, is to find a niche that is underserved or that you can do better than your competition.

 

[NOOB_TECH]

I’m a newer tech, but I have ran into a lot more people that just use their phone to browser the internet and check email.
I believe to survive in the newer tech age you will have to offer several different services. A tech or company that can:
Provide mange services not just consumer based, but SMB think server 2008R2 and 2012
Computer Repair
Graphic design
Consulting
Web design
Phone repairs
App design
SEO
This will be the company that will survive the tech revolution.
When sales are weak in one area, there will always be another category to fall back on.

 

[Markverhyden]

My working computer history goes back to the 1979 or so. All this "stuff" has ever been is a means to gather, store, move, and retrieve information. Sure things have changed in that this information now includes audio and video which used to be handled by completely different equipment.

Over time things are always getting smaller, faster, cheaper, better. So that means less and less repair work over time. I remember back when I worked on my first computer. A microVAX. Everything was a separate card or module.

When I struck out on my own I kept a lot of that in mind. That's probably the main reason I decided to not get a store front. Some of these pundits make it sound like there is going to be a wholesale collapse of the PC manufacturing, etc business. No way. But it will continue to shrink in the developed countries over the years and that means lower prices and margins along with the whole cheaper to replace rather than repair thing.

I was reading an article a while ago that discussed how some parts of the world have skipped the PC paradigm because smart phones came in at an affordable level and the consumers changed their behaviors to accommodate that model.

 

[lsi]

businesses will never get rid of their desktops. I don't care how much DPI you can get into an iPad, it's too frustrating to try to run an accounting app or other business applications on anything less than 2 full size monitors these days. There are several things that businesses will never try to run on a mobile device including drafting, accounting, tax preparation, design work, etc. The cloud *might* pose a threat but I have customers that have already been to the cloud and back. It didn't work for them at all.

 

[16k_zx81]

businesses will never get rid of their desktops.

Lolz. did you really just say that?

That reminds me of that Bill Gates-attributed quote "640K ought to be enough for anybody"

The whole notion of a 'desktop' computer is metamorphosizing.

If you are talking about a hard disk, monitor, keyboard, mouse, it is on its way to being something different entirely.

And good riddance in my opinion, they were woefully unreliable, overpriced, and harder to use than was ever really necessary.

 

[ComputerRepairTech]

Unfortunately the general public doesn't think like a techy.

They want something thin, lightweight, that they can use to browse facebook and send email. They want something portable even when they keep it in the same spot all the time...they just do.

 

[tf76]

businesses will never get rid of their desktops. I don't care how much DPI you can get into an iPad, it's too frustrating to try to run an accounting app or other business applications on anything less than 2 full size monitors these days. There are several things that businesses will never try to run on a mobile device including drafting, accounting, tax preparation, design work, etc. The cloud *might* pose a threat but I have customers that have already been to the cloud and back. It didn't work for them at all.

Never say Never

Song by Justin Bieber

Regards,

 

[skdmaster]

Depending on your business diversity between residential and business clients is how much change you will see. For myself the residential side has slowed down some because of the use of cell phones and tablets. People can do those quick things like browse a site or check an email so they reduce expose to the good ol'e virus days. The other thought process is if the computer dies or need major repair they just go buy another one. At that point is where you still can up sell data transfer and setup on the new system. You know they have 20GB of pictures and 20GB of music that needs to be moved over along with docs onto that new computer On the other hand business clients are not changing but instead consuming more. They need that desktop/laptop to do the work - the tablet still lets them read their email and respond back but it is a sidekick to the desktop/laptop. Our business is always about adjusting to the market and trends. Example is we all sell virus/spyware protection - expand your line to include protection for tablets and phones and have it sitting on the shelf with your other protection products. We replace cracked laptop screens - replace phone/tablet screens as well then. If you are in the business world the big booming tech is BYOD protection in the workplace. The other big boom right now is the push on getting rid of XP systems. Keep in mind that every single restaurant point of sale that is swiping credit cards has to be replaced per PCI compliance and every doctor's computer that has medical information on it has to be replaced per HIPAA regulations. There is lot of opportunities out there and the PC will always be in the business workplace.

 

[TenYardFight]

Good thread. Rex, well said. 16k, good rebuttal too. I would sum up the rebuttal in saying that the cloud is more the reason for the decline in retail computer repair work. Cheap computers only hurt that niche when they are truly "dumb", and the end user can truly replace them and get themselves up and running again without help.

 

[Markverhyden]

businesses will never get rid of their desktops. I don't care how much DPI you can get into an iPad, it's too frustrating to try to run an accounting app or other business applications on anything less than 2 full size monitors these days. There are several things that businesses will never try to run on a mobile device including drafting, accounting, tax preparation, design work, etc. The cloud *might* pose a threat but I have customers that have already been to the cloud and back. It didn't work for them at all.

Businesses are replacing desktops with tablets. Granted is not a flood of work but it is happening. Seen several Vet and Dental clinics where they dumped the PC's they had in the Examination Room/Operatories. Since they were running a client server they simply put in iPad's with ITAP RDP and it works great for that purpose.

 

[nlinecomputers]

But I seriously doubt that the reception desk or labs will get rid of desktops. They all have a purpose.

If you are talking about a hard disk, monitor, keyboard, mouse, it is on its way to being something different entirely.

And good riddance in my opinion, they were woefully unreliable, overpriced, and harder to use than was ever really necessary.

And what per se is going to replace it? iPads? Hardly. Tablets have there uses but some activities like working on spreadsheets will still make use of the traditional interface of a KB and mouse. Now it might be a KB and mouse run from a tablet or phone in a dock but you will still have both IMHO. So far no one has shown me an interface that is superior.

And wireless and cell have it's limits. As more and more people get such devices the amount of bandwidth gets limited. We are going to reach a point in the next 5 years were we have more devices then we have bandwidth free. So some users will drop such devices in frustration.

And there are limitations of battery and storage. Microsoft Surface is an example of that. The idea is great but the limits of the hardware make it a poor implantation of a idea we will see more of in the future IF we can better overcome those limits.

 

[hightechrex]

People still seem to be forgetting that the more robust a tablet gets it will merely become a laptop. If you tear down a tablet it's virtually the same exact device, part for part. Not even sure If many of you read my entire post lmao. All the devices feed off each other. One can not exist without the other..

 

[nlinecomputers]

People still seem to be forgetting that the more robust a tablet gets it will merely become a laptop. If you tear down a tablet it's virtually the same exact device, part for part. Not even sure If many of you read my entire post lmao. All the devices feed off each other. One can not exist without the other..

That depends on the tablet. The iPad certainly isn't a laptop nor is it easy to repair. Microsoft's Surfact RT tablets are so heavily glued that they are almost impossible to repair. I paid $199.00 for my Google Nexus 7. If it breaks it isn't worth repair. I'll replace it. Which is what Google and Asus expect me to do.

 

[acesdeals]

Enough of the death of industry type posts

theres too many of these types of posts all over now and many of them are simply just scared

the world evolves the industry changes jobs are lost or outsourced its just a fact that will continue to happen

nothing is dying its just changing

if you do the same thing over and over and expect different results you are crazy you must learn and evolve yourself

how many retail stores have closed or went online only, there are only a few left

franchises take the cake when it comes to dining with their advertising

when i started my business i knew that things were changing and that software issues were dwindling and hardware issues are rising with things getting cheaper they are built cheaper

we get about 99% mainboard repair work, the rest is os reinstall or virus removal or such

repairing tvs, tablets, dvd players, car dashboards etc; we do it all

everything in this world has a chip inside it

rc cars, phones, elevators, trucks you name it

our store is in a position to repair all of those things, i made an investment at a risky time in a down economy but things are not too shabby

studied micro pc architecture, electronic engineering, mechanical engineering, and bought tons of equipment

full auto rework machine
desoldering gun
micro soldering stations
microscopes
x rays
multimeters
scopes

thats a small list, but that is where the industry is going and not dying

another area is programming, with all these new devices there are new apps to be made, but its very competitive as well

so take my post with a grain

but if i was to create a topic i would call it surviving the repair industry and not focus on its death or life

oh and another thing i got our shop with a garage door, because we will start doing car alarms and entertainment

 

[brandonkick]

It will never go away. A tablet isn't for someone wanting to do "serious" work on a machine or a computer.

There are many, many people who would never want to use these as a main "computer" source.

I can site several examples:


Throughout the five years I spent studying for my degree in computer science and math, I would have cut my hands off if all I had was a "tablet" device. Try writing up a 25 page paper on one. Try efficiently doing any type of research involving running several programs at once and multiple browser tabs. A touch screen would have driven me nuts, and the screen is way smaller then what I want to be using when doing homework / coding / research.

Try really playing any games for any length of time. I'm not talking about angry birds, I'm talking about Black Ops 2, Halo 4, Starcraft 2 and the such.

Try doing any kind of performance oriented task. See how long it would take to encode video on one of those.

Bottom line is the tablet device doesn't fit the bill to be a "all purpose" device. It's a device for entertainment and could pass for light office work (where a 10" screen would permit anyways).

I've been spoiled by having my main rig hooked up to my 47" Sony Bravia HDTV. I can't fathom going back down to a 21" or 23" screen let alone going down to a 10" screen.


The market will shift, it will change. That's life. The desktop and laptop are here to stay. There will always be those who simply can't use a tablet for something it's not.

 

[cyabro]

The way I see it going is everyone will have a smartphone as they are getting so powerful now.
In a few years time they will be just as powerful as desktops or latops are these days and that would be plenty for most people. (They are probably there already) It's really just the storage that needs to be a bit bigger.

They'll then have some sort of docking station, and these stations could be anywhere, where you dock your phone and then you have a working 'classic' desktop with a nice big screen, keyboard & mouse etc and printer if required.

When you leave you take your phone with you, and all your work etc, go home and dock again and carry on working.
Or you could use a docking station at a library, airport etc.

This would of course mean that, for this to work properly, all smartphones would have to have the same dock connector so that may never happen.

 

[ell]

It will never go away. A tablet isn't for someone wanting to do "serious" work on a machine or a computer.

There are many, many people who would never want to use these as a main "computer" source.

I can site several examples:


Throughout the five years I spent studying for my degree in computer science and math, I would have cut my hands off if all I had was a "tablet" device. Try writing up a 25 page paper on one. Try efficiently doing any type of research involving running several programs at once and multiple browser tabs. A touch screen would have driven me nuts, and the screen is way smaller then what I want to be using when doing homework / coding / research.

Try really playing any games for any length of time. I'm not talking about angry birds, I'm talking about Black Ops 2, Halo 4, Starcraft 2 and the such.

Try doing any kind of performance oriented task. See how long it would take to encode video on one of those.

Bottom line is the tablet device doesn't fit the bill to be a "all purpose" device. It's a device for entertainment and could pass for light office work (where a 10" screen would permit anyways).

I've been spoiled by having my main rig hooked up to my 47" Sony Bravia HDTV. I can't fathom going back down to a 21" or 23" screen let alone going down to a 10" screen.


The market will shift, it will change. That's life. The desktop and laptop are here to stay. There will always be those who simply can't use a tablet for something it's not.

I love my new Samsung galaxy tab 10.2, BUT its still slower on the net than my old vista dual core laptop, I haven't rooted it yet, but shutting down some of the bloatware apps that came preinstalled improve it quite a bit, so I see a little opportunity there, everybody loves to pack tons of free apps on then wonder why its so slow, just like a laptop. Another reason I think laptops will hang on for a bit, my 80 yr old mom has a frightful time using the on screen keyboard, ended up putting a shortcut on her Mac desktop to amazon kindle store so she could order her kindle books from there instead of from her kindle. Anybody over 50 with shaky hands will not give up keyboards, especially if they love coffee like me!