Hoarders Make Me Sick

[britechguy]

Isolation is ruining peoples lives now and into the future at the expense of maybe saving some lives in today.

And, it appears, this is a tradeoff that citizens around the world are more than willing to make.

It doesn't help you much to have a future where many people you knew and loved are likely dead along with a huge number of those you didn't. Here in the USA we're approximately 6 weeks into strict social distancing, and even then not absolutely everywhere. It's very hard for me to say that we have "gone too far" with attempts at controlling both spread and numbers infected simultaneously yet.

And, even if I didn't feel that way, as an adult I know that what I personally might prefer or even strongly demand is not what determines public policy, nor should it be. It's not about, and should not be about, *me* and *my* wants and needs, but about the nation's.

It is well to remember that the entire universe, with one trifling exception, is composed of others.
~ John Andrew Holmes

Those who can't and won't understand that based on logic, reason, and basic human decency are, at times, compelled to by law.

 

[britechguy]

It's quite hard to enjoy the future if you die today.

And even if you don't die today, I'd hope not wanting to take the chance of being a carrier and taking this horrible virus to those who will ultimately die because of it would be a motivator.

I'm not really worried all that much about myself as far as Covid-19 goes. But I do not want to be a vector, and there's abundant evidence that a very great many people have, without any knowledge that they were indeed such.

 

[sapphirescales]

It doesn't help you much to have a future where many people you knew and loved are likely dead

Yeah, no kidding. The economy can go to hell for all I care. My mother's life is much more important.

 

[pcpete]

Yeah, no kidding. The economy can go to hell for all I care. My mother's life is much more important.

of course you need to do what ever you can to protect you mother. But there is a cost, other people will die. There is a direct correlation between higher unemployment and people dying early. Maybe some people will be saved, but other people will die.

these numbers are probably off, but make a point
https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/explaining-the-link-between-unemployment-deaths-amid-coronavirus/

 

[nlinecomputers]

And filling up the hospitals and morgues with a surge of new patients will not have a horrible bad effect on the economy? That’s the problem with all the lets get back to work talk. It’s only valid if the virus has very limited effects on the population. 60,000 dead in the USA in only 7 weeks with heavy restrictions is pretty good proof that this virus is anything but limited. The American public needs to accept the fact that we are screwed economically either way. It just depends on how many dead and how fast you want to put up with.

 

[backwoodsman]

Solid scientific data from the US is illustrating that the isolation procedures aren't actually helping.

You're right, but... Last week you said some really nasty, self-righteous things to me for saying essentially the same thing.

Nothing you said about me is true, but one thing is now certain: You are an intellectually-dishonest hypocrite.

 

[Sky-Knight]

You're right, but... Last week you said some really nasty, self-righteous things to me for saying essentially the same thing.

Nothing you said about me is true, but one thing is now certain: You are an intellectually-dishonest hypocrite.

Last week we didn't have the data, now we do. I regret nothing, and no I'm not. You're just looking to continue this lead by feeling BS that got us into this mess. You're wrong, your data is wrong, the doctors you referenced are in the wrong fields, and in general... you're being rather foolish. That's the "best" way I can describe your actions.

But, oh wait... the data I was reading was wrong... so WHOOPS... yeah... the isolation is working. Also, AZ hit 105 this week and our infection numbers did NOT decline. Which means... uh oh... Summer ain't helping either. AZ had to push it's peak date back from mid-April to mid-May as a result, because the model was incorrect.

The state will begin to reopen now May 15th. Because... yeah... and if people stop isolating, they're saying it'll continue into August now.

And all of this trying to predict the actions of a virus in a state that's been rather pathetic in testing... so we're in for a bad time down here I think. Not that I planned to go out much, it's Summer in the desert, time to hide indoors in the A/C at home.

Gov. Dough Ducey Extends Stay at Home Order
So yeah, I was wrong... we needed more isolation not less. The numbers don't lie, and if the AZ Summer heat can't kill it, it's not killing it anywhere in this crazy nation of ours. 105 and 8% relative humidity... and it's STILL spreading.

 

[nlinecomputers]

What data? Are you talking about that Stanford university study? There’s several statisticians who are questioning the findings. And common sense says there wrong simply by the speed of amount of deaths. Something with a fatality rate like flu would not fill up hospitals and morgues like this is doing.

 

[sapphirescales]

of course you need to do what ever you can to protect you mother. But there is a cost, other people will die. There is a direct correlation between higher unemployment and people dying early. Maybe some people will be saved, but other people will die.

This is why individuals an businesses need to make the decision on their own whether they want to quarantine themselves or not. I personally won't be leaving my house until there's a vaccine for this even if it takes 2+ years. Other people would rather risk it. We should have the freedom to choose how we personally want to handle this crisis.

 

[Sky-Knight]

What data? Are you talking about that Stanford university study? There’s several statisticians who are questioning the findings. And common sense says there wrong simply by the speed of amount of deaths. Something with a fatality rate like flu would not fill up hospitals and morgues like this is doing.

No I'm not, I'm talking about the stuff AZ's Governor was throwing around on Twitter and elsewhere because he was commenting on how broken AZ's predictive model from March was. I assumed he was gearing up for an unlock, instead he was prepping us for more lock down.

The Stanford study isn't worth reading at this point, it's still collecting complaints due to various fatal flaws, so that's just junk published by idiots.

The current models here in AZ show ugly truths... Summer isn't helping... people are going from ouch I have the flu to total respiratory shutdown in 4 hours, so fast people recovering at home aren't making it back to the hospital in time. Toss in the fact this thing is apparently symptom-less in 50% of those infected...

I presume the mortality rate maintains around 0.1% or lower, but only because this thing has infected half or possibly more of the entire population at this point. But without antibody testing that actually works, it's impossible to know. It would be nice if the infection numbers were huge, because it means we're over this that much faster.

AZ lost 11 people today, has 7,202 active cases, 304 total deaths, we've run 68,813 tests, 254 new cases today, 1,375 tests today.

We have 100.2 people confirmed sick for every 100,000 people. 4.23 deaths per 100,000. 9% of the people tested have the virus.

Now to put that into perspective, our violent crime rate for the entire state was 407.3 offenses per 100,000 people last year.

So at the moment, you've got 1/4 the chance of being hospitalized by COVID than you do of suffering a violent crime in AZ. So... there's that... I'm still not taking off my mask, I'm debating if my kids go back to school in August at this point... I've got a diabetic in the house to keep breathing.

 

[nlinecomputers]

I presume the mortality rate maintains around 0.1% or lower, but only because this thing has infected half or possibly more of the entire population at this point. But without antibody testing that actually works, it's impossible to know. It would be nice if the infection numbers were huge, because it means we're over this that much faster.

Your math is faulty if half the population is infected the death toll even at 0.1% would be much higher. Around 3600 for Arizona.

 

[Sky-Knight]

That's true if, and only if, the fatality rate really is as low as 0.1% and people who've recovered from the infection are left with immunity from contracting it again and the virus doesn't mutate. Unfortunately your 0.1% figure is a guess, there's emerging evidence of reinfection and we already know there are several different strains of the virus. What we don't know is if recovery from one strain protects against another.

If there's a high rate of reinfection then there's no chance of herd immunity until an effective vaccine is developed and any strategy based on letting everyone get infected and carrying on as normal is simply wrong. Under those circumstances a huge number of infections just means a huge number of deaths.

Very true, we have no evidence of long term immunity against any coronavirus. And I think a good portion of the medical community has given up on a vaccine, the successful treatment options I've seen being developed are all antivirals. Which is good, but also sobering... because such things didn't exist until relatively recently.

 

[NETWizz]

Then you're not looking hard enough. I got mine from Sears (it's a 21 cubic foot upright convertible fridge/freezer so I can turn it into an all-fridge when this is all over), but there are other options. Check out commercial freezers. Those are easy to come by right now because businesses are shut down. You could even go used if you wanted to save a few bucks.

Do you really think that EVERYONE is buying freezers and that's why they're sold out? No. Only a small percentage of people are buying freezers, but that's enough to destabilize the supply chain. Same thing with toilet paper and everything else. Most of the country is too poor to even put good food on the table. They don't have the money to by hundreds of rolls of toilet paper, months (or even years) worth of food, or freezers. I can afford to do this because I'm a business owner, but most people could never do it.

I can afford it too, but I do not want to spend $4000 on a freezer. Can you find me anything that can be delivered that is upright, about 7 to 9 cubic feet, no auto defrost, $600 or less, Energy star a plus. Zip code 29169

 

[Sky-Knight]

Well there's your problem... no auto defrost. I haven't seen a freezer lacking an automatic defrost in decades. Are those still a thing?

 

[sapphirescales]

Can you find me anything that can be delivered that is upright, about 7 to 9 cubic feet, no auto defrost, $600 or less

Here ya go. It's not pretty and could use a good cleaning, but it'll probably outlive any consumer grade appliance you can buy today:

https://seattle.craigslist.org/est/bfs/d/glass-door-display-freezer/7107524383.html

Look at your local Craigslist. This is what I got:

https://www.sears.com/kenmore-22202-21.0-cu-ft-upright-freezer-white/p-A071031503

Delivery is out about a month where I'm at. This one will deliver in 2 weeks:

https://www.sears.com/frigidaire-fffu16f2vw-15.5-cu-ft-frost-free/p-A078650199

I have a total of 4 fridges/freezers - one standard fridge/freezer combo that came with the house (a Samsung), one glass door commercial refrigerator from Frigidaire, one smaller Kenmore upright freezer, and then the big convertible fridge/freezer I just got recently. 3 of them are in my kitchen/dining room area and one is in the basement. I'm working on stocking the new one up with meat but it's hard because stuff is constantly out of stock. You'd think that 4 fridges/freezers would store a crap ton of food but it's scary how fast you go through it.

 

[britechguy]

Very true, we have no evidence of long term immunity against any coronavirus.

But, most experts do say:

1. Long term immunity is far more probable than the lack thereof.

2. Short term immunity (meaning months to several years) is a virtual certainty.

That's why broad testing to determine who's got antibodies is so darned critical. The world can't, and won't, stop forever. Depending on what is found with regard to proportions of various populations already infected and recovered, we may (note: may) be in better shape than we believe. We could also, of course, not be. Can't know without hard data.

 

[fencepost]

maybe isolation is slowing things down or working[IN THE SHORT TERM], but is this going to stop people from getting infected long term? What if complete isolation works, then are we going to stay this way till they make a vaccine in the future? Isolation is ruining peoples lives now and into the future at the expense of maybe saving some lives in today.

The goal of the isolation was to reduce infection rates so those who get sick and need treatment are able to get it in hospitals that aren't overwhelmed. Ignoring things like "Bring in more refrigerator trucks, the morgue, the morgue hallway and another hallway are all full of bodies" and the question of whether ventilators are worth it, if you have 1000 hospital beds available and 10,000 people needing them then 9000 of those people are even more f*cked than they already were. If that can be stretched out so the extra 9000 need the beds over a multi-month period rather than within a week or two, that's a huge difference.

On the other hand, this leaves out the question of how many people (particularly nurses I suspect) are going to GTFO of anything involving hospital work while they go work on their PTSD.

 

[britechguy]

Says the man who cherry picks his evidence to fit his ideology.

Those of us who don't wear it as a badge of honor to be dismissed by the likes of you.

 

[backwoodsman]

Says the man who cherry picks his evidence to fit his ideology.

So, let me make sure I have this straight: Looking at and evaluating all available info is "cherry picking", and refusing to look at what doesn't fit your chosen paradigm is "not cherry picking". Got it. Do those of you in the "not cherry picking" category get extra points for still thinking you're following some kind of scientific method?

 

[Larry Sabo]

Get a room!