The End of the Windows PC is Near

[Wheelie]

I may be a bit dramatic here but I think this needs to be said. And pardon me if this topic has already has been broached - I did not do a search

Background -
I just got the new T-Mobile G2 phone last week. It is an unbelievable bad-a$$ piece of technology. The 800 MHz Snapdragon processor is fast as sh#t ... probably faster than the PC of 1995. Certainly has more storage capacity. It surfs the net at 10 mbps in my living room on T-Mobile's HSPA network (not on my home LAN) ... HSPA+ surfs faster than my home DSL (it's only a 6 mbps connection), it does pop3 e-mail, opens almost any attachment, does gmail with ease, has a built-in GPS (courtesy of Google) that gives visual and audio turn-by-turn direction, has an awesome High Def 3.7" wide screen that is very sharp and colorful, a 5 MP camera with LED flash that shoots very nice pix, a 720p HD video camera that also is awesome, it does video chat thru Google, has a real keyboard, and 8 GB storage. It also now runs a full version of Flash and opens Acrobat, Word, and Excel files. There are tons of droid apps available that make this thing do even more.

When (not if) the RBN gets around to attacking Android hand-held devices .... and thus cell phone users are getting viruses ... all you have to do is a hard reset and poof! the viruses is gone (the customer won't need me for virus removal).

This is a major game-changer folks. The writing is on the wall. Will this "kill" the PC? Not today or tomorrow. In 3 to 5 years? It could. It will certainly significantly reduce the number of PC's in my client area which will reduce the need for me and thus my business will suffer. Time for thinking about a new career?

Ultimately - since processor power doubles every 13 months (yes we are now exceeding Moore's Law) the cell phone will be as powerful as today's desktop sooner rather than later. When they fully develop the smart phone with a proper docking station (i.e. full sized keyboard, mouse and 23" LCD display) our business as we know it know is toast. Will there be PC's around to work on? Yes. But much fewer - maybe not enough to sustain my current way of life.

Android could also substantially kill the Windows OS.

Thoughts?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxBpKZcY9Yc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Odb6JjBFKgY

 

[JBCOMPU]

What are we going to do?

What is going to happen to the computer techs? Web Sites Business? License's? Taxes? No more jobs???? I'm sure computers will be around for some time......

 

[keeperofthecode]

Reset your phone and poof, there goes all your stuff, I don't think so. Phones and computers may be merging into one device but they will still need to be worked on. I already work on phones on a semi regular basis. I'm not losing any sleep on this subject.

 

[ATSCF]

So I guess all businesses will be buying phones instead of PC?? I don't think so. Windows will be around for a very long time in businesses at least. Also, a pc will always be 100 times faster than a phone for the foreseeable future.

This will hit the residential market alot harder than business (if at all), so I just told you how to stay in business, go after SMB market.


I could never not have a computer. There are just so many things I would miss including games. A phones video processor will just never cut it. Now I could see myself gettting a new droid tablet to replace my laptop maybe though. With RDP I could access my PC.

I tried the droid captivate a few weeks ago and i don't think its there yet so I returned it. When Android 3.0 hits I will take another look.

 

[ATTech]

New Phone Shock - Don't worry, everyone get it. It will pass over time.

 

[MrUnknown]

A phone is still a computer. Not every computer problem is by a virus. What do you do if the screen breaks? Buy a new phone?

I agree the field will change, but it isn't going to go away. We will have to adapt to it.

 

[Appleby]

I've been saying the same sort of thing for the past several months myself. It is by far not a popular opinion on these forums. And it's not surprising because no one likes to hear that there is a possibility that their livelihood might be becoming less profitable or at least the "pie" getting smaller with the same number of people trying to get their "piece".

I will go on record as saying that I don't believe every pc repair shop will be out of business in 10 years. Far from it. BUT if personal (not business) computing keeps trending the way it is, things will change for the worse. I am willing to make a long term bet with odds. I know far too many people who are giving up their pc's for smart phones and tablets. I'm talking about completely giving them up. This is also easier if they have access to a pc at work. I also think Macs already are and will continue to make our "pie" smaller. I have people of all ages in my office almost weekly telling me they are giving up their pc for a Mac and with the college/high school age crowd, Macs are gaining popularity like nothing I've ever seen.

So are we all going to go out of business? No. Are some people going to have to close up shop in the next 5-10 years because of a waning market? Ya I think so. I think for now, there tablet, smart phone, Mac trend are not affecting business and probably won't for a long time. Other things like cloud computing and "disposable" computers might start affecting how much work with do with businesses but I think the jury is out and I'm not really even worried about that trend yet. However, I believe we are looking at the birth pains of a new market consumer/home market change right now and hiding under the bed and saying it isn't happening is naive at best.

The sky is falling? Nah, not yet but the storm clouds are rolling in and it's starting to lightly rain....

Just my 2 cents. Flame away!

 

[barry3652]

Not having moan but I keep reading this and it will be years before the pc drops off. Try setting up a printer on a phone or burning you favorite photos to a disk. Or what about setting up the home network.Watching youtube on 4inch screen is alright when your on the move but do you want that at home. Try activating the iphone with out itunes? I just think it will be a new gadget that goes along side the other gadgets we all got already.

 

[keeperofthecode]

I've been saying the same sort of thing for the past several months myself. It is by far not a popular opinion on these forums. And it's not surprising because no one likes to hear that there is a possibility that their livelihood might be becoming less profitable or at least the "pie" getting smaller with the same number of people trying to get their "piece".

I will go on record as saying that I don't believe every pc repair shop will be out of business in 10 years. Far from it. BUT if personal (not business) computing keeps trending the way it is, things will change for the worse. I am willing to make a long term bet with odds. I know far too many people who are giving up their pc's for smart phones and tablets. I'm talking about completely giving them up. This is also easier if they have access to a pc at work. I also think Macs already are and will continue to make our "pie" smaller. I have people of all ages in my office almost weekly telling me they are giving up their pc for a Mac and with the college/high school age crowd, Macs are gaining popularity like nothing I've ever seen.

So are we all going to go out of business? No. Are some people going to have to close up shop in the next 5-10 years because of a waning market? Ya I think so. I think for now, there tablet, smart phone, Mac trend are not affecting business and probably won't for a long time. Other things like cloud computing and "disposable" computers might start affecting how much work with do with businesses but I think the jury is out and I'm not really even worried about that trend yet. However, I believe we are looking at the birth pains of a new market consumer/home market change right now and hiding under the bed and saying it isn't happening is naive at best.

The sky is falling? Nah, not yet but the storm clouds are rolling in and it's starting to lightly rain....

Just my 2 cents. Flame away!

I guess a person can have this opinion if you only work on PCs. Truth is even if PCs fade to nothing, all the gadgets replaing them need to be worked on. While right now the PC market is strong, don't think that the minute Macs become over 50% of the market we won't see iMac Antivirus Pro. I guess I work on enough other things that I don't worry about it much. Right now in my office I have Macs, TVs, PCs, monitors, phones and several other crazy devices being worked on.

 

[meanderer]

the pie is DEFINITELY getting smaller. However, you also need to look at the other pies that are getting larger.

Expand your knowledge to include Macs, tablets, etc. It is another transitional period that we are in. Take care and stay afloat

I have never heard about Photoshop, dreamweaver, Autocad, etc. for android. But as I list those you can see those are pretty professional items. I can confidently say that the consumer piece is waning but professional/business pie will stay EXACTLY the same. Who is their right mind would do serious accounting/design work on a phone? Personal "banking", maybe, but that's not accounting is it?

 

[diggauk]

For all of my fellow technicians out there who are worried about the possibility of losing their piece of the pie, may I suggest reading this book:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Moved_My_Cheese?

I would suggest that now is the time for you to get a good relationship with your local mobile phone shop . I have been working closely with the one in my town for the past 2 years, and I must get 6 - 8 jobs a week from them.

Most of the time it's for setting up Blackberries, iPhones and Androids with a customers existing PC or Mac, but also help with Mobile Broadband dongles and data transfers.

Next week I'm off to setup a Blackberry Enterprise Server Express for an SMB (should be interesting).

This convergence in technologies is a perfect opportunity for us to expand and grow our businesses to provide a service to our customers. Lets embrace it, after all, we are all GEEKS

 

[basic]

I guess I should know that this topic has been discussed so often in the past, that I shouldn't be surprised that it has come up again. But I am.

 

[Hercomputers]

I guess I should know that this topic has been discussed so often in the past, that I shouldn't be surprised that it has come up again. But I am.

Don't be because it's going to come up again and again...no one likes to do searches-

PCs will continue to be around for a very long time and we will be needed to fix them - wow, I think I'm saying the exact same thing I said on another thread..on the same subject.....lol

Seriously though, the end of the windows pc is no where near ending. Highly unlikely.

 

[911cri]

Does this mean that the coders of

malicious software will just go away with the PC? Or will they focus on the new products? I'm of the opinion that as technology changes, and we adapt, so will the hackers/crackers/whatevers methods of attack. Wont the attackers still be poised to attack the vulnerabilites that will still be present, and won't they still focus on what is most "popular" at the time? Sure, anti-virus/malware/spyware will get more efficient, bus so have the coders, over the last 20 years. I don't see a death to the skill of an experienced tech, now matter how tech changes, IMHO.

 

[maclaptech]

How can businesses run on cell phones? How can musicians, lab technicians, scientists and the likes of them run their applications on cell phones????

 

[Wheelie]

... Ultimately - since processor power doubles every 13 months (yes we are now exceeding Moore's Law) the cell phone will be as powerful as today's desktop sooner rather than later. When they fully develop the smart phone with a proper docking station (i.e. full sized keyboard, mouse and 23" LCD display) our business as we know it know is toast. Will there be PC's around to work on? Yes. But much fewer - maybe not enough to sustain my current way of life.

Android could also substantially kill the Windows OS.

Visualize where we are headed. This is going to happen. This will substantially affect our busniesses:

* A given hand-held device can run an efficient, small OS that's easy to reload (hold down two keys)
* There will be "parallel apps" created for everything we currently have on the traditional Desktop PC (WoW, Office, ACAD, QuickBooks, etc)
* It doesn't use a "registry" like Windows - faster, less trouble (it's more Mac-like)
* Its processor power rivals that of today's desktop PC
* All its data & apps are stored in a cloud of networked servers (simple recovery)
* Seagate and WD start making these really nice WLAN backup drives for hand-helds (for folks scared of the cloud)
* It's connected to 10+ mbps broadband Internet wherever you go
* It has a built-in 1080i HD webcam and mic and shoots 12 MP high res still images with a flash
* It is an excellent GPS
* It has a HDMI video port for connection to a full-size LCD monitor or TV (current technology)
* It has a good Bluetooth port for a full-size keyboard and mouse
* Printer manufacturers offer wireless printers that work great in Bluetooth, Ad Hoc, and/or WLAN situations
* Printer manufacturers make Android drivers available
* The "PC" is getting smaller and smaller with more and more features. Pretty soon in a pen with virtual keyboard & mouse

Why would the average Joe need a "Desktop PC" of today? Yes in the workplace for obvious reasons. But not so much at home or certain small businesses.

We need to open our eyes. 5 years or less? It could significantly reduce the number of traditional desktop PC's in my customer base. I see a need to prepare for the change.

We must embrace this and take advantage of it somehow.

 

[Wheelie]

Think about it: a large chunk of business in PC repair is due to 1) the problems with the Windows Registry, 2) current hard disk technology (how failure-prone it is), and 3) viruses. Eliminating those 3 items would have a significant impact on the PC repair business.

Viruses? Or maybe an app has corrupted the OS? The customer holds down two keys performing a "hard reset" and it is in like-new state. Step 2 ... he/she restores desired apps and user data (music, photos, and docs) from the cloud with the push of a couple buttons.

The smart phone of the not-to-distant future will have enough CPU power, connectivity, redundancy, and functionality to replace a significant number of installed traditional desktop PC's world-wide.

Not to mention the pressure that Google's Android OS is putting on the Windows desktop OS (a huge problematic pig). Android is open source. The rate of installation of Android is pretty incredible. But also realize Microsoft is coming to the party (late) with the Windows Phone 7 OS.

In other words - I see our market place changing significantly in the decade to come. Go ahead. Shoot the messenger

 

[JBCOMPU]

Cell phones???

I get desperate trying to send a text message...... I would not use a cell phone to write a letter or work on auto cad, that is crazyyyy.... There will always be computers, Microsoft......

 

[iisjman07]

I personally think linux will prevail; it's free, secure (...er than other OS' on the market at the moment), very reliable, uses less resources, etc... The way that anyone can modify a distro means that it progress' in leaps and bounds in terms of ease of use and features (torrent a copy of Ubuntu 8.04 and a copy of Ubuntu 10.10, which have two years between then, if you don't believe me). I think that 'we' will start to see a lot more mac repairs, purely because with everybody slandering Windows and as a result, everyone moving to OS X, more and more problems will arise (mac malware will become more prevalent, that's inevitable), which is followed by people installing 'McAfee for mac' and 'Norton mac edition', and then the mac slows down or worse, and voila, the industry equilibrium has been returned.

PS: I feel a wee bit hypocritical because I'm writing this from my hackintosh...

 

[basic]

* It doesn't use a "registry" like Windows - faster, less trouble (it's more Mac-like)

I would say it's more *NIX like...but that's just semantics.

I would say PCs will still exist for the sake of gaming. Of course you could say console gaming will make it completely obsolete...but i'm not so sure of that. The processing, video, storage, and battery technology still has to go a long way, imo, and I don't know if that much progress will be made within the next five years. Again, just my opinion.

You also have to consider that fact that the average home user is averse to change. Whether it's a new computer that looks and feels different or a new operating system. The time it takes to migrate the majority of the user from their desktops/laptops to a handheld device and changing their computing paradigm will take more than five years. This is evidenced by the willingness of customers to fix laptops and desktops that are more than 7 years old and outdated operating systems.

Edit: I wouldn't say I disagree with you that there may be a shift towards all the things you are saying. I just wouldn't say that "the end is near". Also, why is it just Windows PC? Will Macbooks and Macs be immune from this trend?