Computer Repair Lifespan

[RemoteGeek]

Just curious to see what everyone's opinion is on the lifespan of computer repair? I started computer repair over a decade ago and have seen many changes on what I work on. For example, when I started back in 1998 almost everything I worked on was a desktop. Recently I've noticed that the majority of computers I work on are laptops. Now, we are starting to see that smart phones / tablets are becoming the computing platform of choice. Even HP announced that they are selling off their consumer division. Just curious on everyone’s opinion on our future.

 

[Martyn]

Well for me it doesn't make much difference as I will retire in a few years but I think there is a difference between the desktop to laptop transition than comparing laptop to handheld/smartphone. The transition from desktop to laptop was a direct replacement as laptops dropped in price. The laptop was £1500 - £2000 initially when it first appeared, when the price dropped they became the choice of the user in the main. The difference now is the handheld/smartphone is a supplement to the laptop/desktop not a replacement. Yes you can surf as I do on my Ipad but as soon as I can I get onto a laptop or desktop.

 

[Joseph@Dagon]

As technology evolves, we need to evolve with it.

 

[16k_zx81]

Yes, its dying in its current form.

When you think about it, the 'personal computer' is an incredibly inefficient device. The fundamental flaws of unreliability, (due to local OS, local software and local storage) and expense, (due to the need for hardware sufficiently powered to drive local resources) are being addressed now, and will drive change in how we manage devices and information management/storage.

Cloud computing and high speed broadband will drive a shift to thin clients. Thin clients will drop in price to the point where they are a disposable item - much like a low end bubble-jet printer, or a monitor is now - when it dies it will be cheaper to throw out/replace than to repair. this will start a demise of 'box-level' repair work. (this is already beginning to happen with laptops and the increasing customer mantra of "I could buy a new one for that". Which is truer now than it was 12 months ago and will be truer again in 12 months time. This trend will not diminish over time.

Once widespread thin-client computing is viable, virus removals will be a thing of the past, (no local OS). Data recovery on a domestic level also will diminish as everything will connect to the cloud therefore no need for 'internal' and 'external' storage repairs. There goes the bulk of our work as we currently know it ('box' repairs, virus removal, data recovery).

I agree with the post above. We need to get diversified as this thing of people bringing us their sick boxes is impendingly time-limited. 'professional IT' will increasingly be a corporate and infrastructural/organizational arena. Work for individuals will dissipate over time due to a transference of the work of computers away from local device level, and the consequential shift in device-affordability / disposability.

This debate has been had on here before (can anyone throw the OP a link? - I cant remember the thread titles).

 

[anonymous Mac Tech]

Yes, its dying in its current form.

When you think about it, the 'personal computer' is an incredibly inefficient device. The fundamental flaws of unreliability, (due to local OS, local software and local storage) and expense, (due to the need for hardware sufficiently powered to drive local resources) are being addressed now, and will drive change in how we manage devices and information management/storage.

Cloud computing and high speed broadband will drive a shift to thin clients. Thin clients will drop in price to the point where they are a disposable item - much like a low end bubble-jet printer, or a monitor is now - when it dies it will be cheaper to throw out/replace than to repair. this will start a demise of 'box-level' repair work. (this is already beginning to happen with laptops and the increasing customer mantra of "I could buy a new one for that". Which is truer now than it was 12 months ago and will be truer again in 12 months time. This trend will not diminish over time.

Once widespread thin-client computing is viable, virus removals will be a thing of the past, (no local OS). Data recovery on a domestic level also will diminish as everything will connect to the cloud therefore no need for 'internal' and 'external' storage repairs. There goes the bulk of our work as we currently know it ('box' repairs, virus removal, data recovery).

I agree with the post above. We need to get diversified as this thing of people bringing us their sick boxes is impendingly time-limited. 'professional IT' will increasingly be a corporate and infrastructural/organizational arena. Work for individuals will dissipate over time due to a transference of the work of computers away from local device level, and the consequential shift in device-affordability / disposability.

This debate has been had on here before (can anyone throw the OP a link? - I cant remember the thread titles).

Broadband still has a long way to go (at least in the US) before there is any major shift to cloud computing. Sure we are 9th in worldwide broadband usage, but the major manufacturers are more than willing to wait for the US to catch up since we consume 25% of all goods produced worldwide. Also, their is a lot of copper out there still in the ground and overhead that the telecommunications industry is not in any real hurry to dig up and replace with fiber optic unless they are pushed to or it where it will be cost effective for them to do so.

Furthermore, Computers are still more powerful than tablets or smartphones. We have not really reached any hardware limitations with PC hardware to where it is going to happen anytime soon. Yes, folks like convenience, but we love power even more. As long the PCs have potential to be more powerful than tablets or smartphones, consumers will be ever more empowered and inclined to have multiple uses for these devices. Not everyone just uses a computer for email, web browsing and some occasional word processing anymore.

If and when there is a shift, it will most likely happen on the residential side of things. It will be quite a while before businesses are ready to trade in their desktops and laptops to solely use smartphones and tablets. Sure hardware can be replaced every few years, but there will still be demand for folks to support their existing infrastructure. With more companies trying to stay lean and mean and hold onto their cash reserves, there will be greater demand to outsource their IT services. I've seen a couple articles just locally and just very recently where schools are looking for ways to increase and upgrade their technology infrastructure (even in the face of massive cuts in education).

Just because a market is in its maturity stage, its far from time to put it out to pasture. Especially when we are far from realizing the full potential of what we can do with PCs.

 

[gunslinger]

Yes, its dying in its current form.

When you think about it, the 'personal computer' is an incredibly inefficient device. The fundamental flaws of unreliability, (due to local OS, local software and local storage) and expense, (due to the need for hardware sufficiently powered to drive local resources) are being addressed now, and will drive change in how we manage devices and information management/storage.

Cloud computing and high speed broadband will drive a shift to thin clients. Thin clients will drop in price to the point where they are a disposable item - much like a low end bubble-jet printer, or a monitor is now - when it dies it will be cheaper to throw out/replace than to repair. this will start a demise of 'box-level' repair work. (this is already beginning to happen with laptops and the increasing customer mantra of "I could buy a new one for that". Which is truer now than it was 12 months ago and will be truer again in 12 months time. This trend will not diminish over time.

Once widespread thin-client computing is viable, virus removals will be a thing of the past, (no local OS). Data recovery on a domestic level also will diminish as everything will connect to the cloud therefore no need for 'internal' and 'external' storage repairs. There goes the bulk of our work as we currently know it ('box' repairs, virus removal, data recovery).

I agree with the post above. We need to get diversified as this thing of people bringing us their sick boxes is impendingly time-limited. 'professional IT' will increasingly be a corporate and infrastructural/organizational arena. Work for individuals will dissipate over time due to a transference of the work of computers away from local device level, and the consequential shift in device-affordability / disposability.

This debate has been had on here before (can anyone throw the OP a link? - I cant remember the thread titles).

Agreed on all points. I too am hearing the "I could buy a new one for that" more often these days. In fact on about every 5th or 6th computer. Computers are most certainly becoming disposable items. Last week a customers netbook Mobo died and I asked her if she had any data or pics backed up. She said "oh no, I have all that on facebook".

 

[nesrinamb]

it think they talked about this in a podnutz episode and the point that was brought up was that we must adapt to new things. For instance in my area no one advertises that they fix iPhones so I do that extensively as business for other computer work has gone down. I Agree with everyone here that we need to adapt. In fact the longest running companies in history have adapted to stay in business.

Ex: Nokia Originally sold paper and was an industrial conglomerate before they got into telecommunications.

As for the state of the computer repair business we're safe for now but we need to learn how to start fixing smart phones and other devices not just PC's.

 

[RemoteGeek]

it think they talked about this in a podnutz episode and the point that was brought up was that we must adapt to new things. For instance in my area no one advertises that they fix iPhones so I do that extensively as business for other computer work has gone down. I Agree with everyone here that we need to adapt. In fact the longest running companies in history have adapted to stay in business.

Ex: Nokia Originally sold paper and was an industrial conglomerate before they got into telecommunications.

As for the state of the computer repair business we're safe for now but we need to learn how to start fixing smart phones and other devices not just PC's.

What kind of profit could be made off of repairing smart phones / tablets? Actually what are the how to's to smartphone / tablet repair?

 

[sassenach]

I think break/fix will be around for quite a while BUT not as profitable as some would like it to be.

There's plenty of other avenues that the technically minded can get involved with and it might be that areas such as local virtualisation, network set-ups, asset management and buying assistance can provide good extra revenue streams.

 

[Paul Rodgers]

Businesses may take 10-20 years to catch up.

Computers were originally business oriented. The technology got cheaper and moved to the home users and small businesses. The same with laptops. The newest iteration of the tablet is a personal / home user product that needs to gain traction in the business segment rather than becoming cheaper for personal use.

 

[Appleby]

I had a conversation today about this with someone who has been doing some research into businesses relating to e-commerce, apps and mobile computing. Everything he sees is pointing towards a VAST majority of end users accessing the web from mobile devices/tablet type devices within 10-15 years. And lets be honest....15 years ago was 1996. The tech/computer world has changed ALOT since then. In 15 years the way we access the internet for the most part could be alot different. I'm already seeing this with the younger generation (25-30 yrs old and younger). Many of them are opting to not replace their computers and instead just use their smart phones.

I guess I'm old school and can't imagine not using a laptop but times are changing. I can tell you this much, if I had to put all my investment money on the line, it would not be on the pc market, as we know it today.

 

[joydivision]

I have done a few support jobs for Ipads now, as the slightly older generation start to use them I think we will be getting more support calls in this area.

I am also looking into getting basic teaching qualifications so I can move my business more into that area. I am finding that demand for desktop PCs has now increased, as a lot of the 2006 era machines I setup now need replacing.

August has been a funny month job wise, and the lack of viruses is hurting me but the work I have had has been extremely varied .

 

[gunslinger]

I had a conversation today about this with someone who has been doing some research into businesses relating to e-commerce, apps and mobile computing. Everything he sees is pointing towards a VAST majority of end users accessing the web from mobile devices/tablet type devices within 10-15 years. And lets be honest....15 years ago was 1996. The tech/computer world has changed ALOT since then. In 15 years the way we access the internet for the most part could be alot different. I'm already seeing this with the younger generation (25-30 yrs old and younger). Many of them are opting to not replace their computers and instead just use their smart phones.

I guess I'm old school and can't imagine not using a laptop but times are changing. I can tell you this much, if I had to put all my investment money on the line, it would not be on the pc market, as we know it today.

This! Exactly. I know a few people who use their smart phones almost exclusively now and either sold or simply threw out the old desktop or laptop.
Another thing driving this IMO is this: You get an iPad with Apple care. It breaks, you take it back and they replace it or repair it free. You have a smart phone from Verizon and it breaks (has happened to me a lot) you take it back, they send you another one in the mail the next day.



Now compare this to a 3 year old walmart $400 PC being taken in to the typical repair shop. The guy behind the counter, (needing to make his $700 per month BMW payment is going to charge $120 per hour plus parts.



I really think PC techs for the most part are cutting their own throats with their hourly rates and not being able to see the writing on the wall.

 

[red12049]

This! Exactly. I know a few people who use their smart phones almost exclusively now and either sold or simply threw out the old desktop or laptop.
Another thing driving this IMO is this: You get an iPad with Apple care. It breaks, you take it back and they replace it or repair it free. You have a smart phone from Verizon and it breaks (has happened to me a lot) you take it back, they send you another one in the mail the next day.



Now compare this to a 3 year old walmart $400 PC being taken in to the typical repair shop. The guy behind the counter, (needing to make his $700 per month BMW payment is going to charge $120 per hour plus parts.



I really think PC techs for the most part are cutting their own throats with their hourly rates and not being able to see the writing on the wall.

Hmmm... The "writing on the wall" says that if the PC business changes that dramatically, it won't matter what you charge, as there will be no PC's to repair.

Putting aside all the other variables, like fixed costs for a storefront etc., wouldn't it be better to make your money while you can, no matter what you choose to spend it on? As long as you make your money ethically, a BMW is a perfectly legitimate purchase, as is retirement savings, etc.

Rick

 

[Appleby]

This! Exactly. I know a few people who use their smart phones almost exclusively now and either sold or simply threw out the old desktop or laptop.
Another thing driving this IMO is this: You get an iPad with Apple care. It breaks, you take it back and they replace it or repair it free. You have a smart phone from Verizon and it breaks (has happened to me a lot) you take it back, they send you another one in the mail the next day.



Now compare this to a 3 year old walmart $400 PC being taken in to the typical repair shop. The guy behind the counter, (needing to make his $700 per month BMW payment is going to charge $120 per hour plus parts.



I really think PC techs for the most part are cutting their own throats with their hourly rates and not being able to see the writing on the wall.

I totally agree with the first half but I'm not sure about the hourly rate thing. I charge $65-$75/hr and that is all my market will allow for. I'm sure I could squeak out another $10 but that would be max. With those rates, my (low) overheard, no employees, advertising and the endless hours of work I can't bill for, after 5 years, I'm making about what I imagine a manager at McDonalds makes. Heck they might make more to be honest.lol I'm not griping, I like my job, I'm making an ok living but my wife is still making 2-2.5x what I do as a hairdresser.

If I could start another business and make a more money with about the same hours and stress level, I'm all over it. And I'm looking. If I don't find it, that's fine.

 

[Knightsman]

Just because people say "I could buy a new one for that" Doesn't make it true.

My repairs typically stay under $200 including labor. Show me a decent laptop or desktop for less than $300. A $249 netbook does not count.

People just assume this is true and buy another one. Its when that one messes up is when they typically call someone.

Most of my business now is maintenance, training, and setup/implementation. Screw virus removals, or break/fix. If I can maintain a network, show a guy how to setup his dropbox account, or get sound to work through their TV from their tablet, then I'm happy.

 

[16k_zx81]

Just because people say "I could buy a new one for that" Doesn't make it true.

My repairs typically stay under $200 including labor. Show me a decent laptop or desktop for less than $300. A $249 netbook does not count.

People just assume this is true and buy another one. Its when that one messes up is when they typically call someone.

Most of my business now is maintenance, training, and setup/implementation. Screw virus removals, or break/fix. If I can maintain a network, show a guy how to setup his dropbox account, or get sound to work through their TV from their tablet, then I'm happy.

For a board replacement on any current laptop the parts are often near the original cost of the machine. (old machines a different equation). By the time we add labour to it, its right up there in price to the consumer.

A customer can literally go out and buy a core i3 for $500. Our repairs on laptops average around $300. For the extra $200 they get more RAM, a bigger HDD and a warranty. Not all customers take this option, fortunately, and, thankfully. not all are aware of it.

Im not saying in all cases with all machines this is the maths. However, times are changing and this equation is moving very quickly against repair.

2 years ago an entry level laptop was a Grand. Now they are half that price. In 2 years time, halve that again, and this is the reality of what we are facing.

Add to that the CPI we need to add to repair costs over time, and increment that over 5 years and you start to get a picture where the repair cost will soon be regularly over the hardware investment.

Disposability on domestic machines is imminent, whether we like it or not

 

[red12049]

I totally agree with the first half but I'm not sure about the hourly rate thing. I charge $65-$75/hr and that is all my market will allow for. I'm sure I could squeak out another $10 but that would be max. With those rates, my (low) overheard, no employees, advertising and the endless hours of work I can't bill for, after 5 years, I'm making about what I imagine a manager at McDonalds makes. Heck they might make more to be honest.lol I'm not griping, I like my job, I'm making an ok living but my wife is still making 2-2.5x what I do as a hairdresser.

If I could start another business and make a more money with about the same hours and stress level, I'm all over it. And I'm looking. If I don't find it, that's fine.

Have you taken the time to analyze (or had someone do so) why this is the case? Might be informative.

Rick

 

[joydivision]

I am not sure how sustainable cheap technology is though. There has been supply problems in China (with some fake factories making dangerous parts which get into the legit chain) and with the price of labour (Chinese) and metal going up all the time, the days of making things dirt cheap in China may be a thing of the past.

So I am not sure things will fall much more, and a lot of people still want desktops when it comes to anything business related, and there is a lot less desktops on the market now, which means there is a bigger market for self build PCs than there was a couple of years back.

 

[thebige]

This is why I signed up for sky is falling insurance....just in time too!

Edit: p.s. This comment was pure tongue in cheek.