Third Year Boom, Fourth Year Bust - Technibble
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Third Year Boom, Fourth Year Bust

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There is an old saying in business known as “third year boom, fourth year bust”. Its a trap that all computer technicians can fall into and its often fatal to their businesses.

The “Third Year Boom, Forth Year Bust” phenomenon begins with the first year of business.

The first year is always exciting because this is when you think about all the possibilities and you come up with some great ideas for your business. During this time you are trying your first client and once you have them, you feel a great sense of accomplishment. A little later you get your second client, then another, and another. At some point during the first year you will have some bad experiences but you can chalk them up to experience and continue on.

Assuming you made it though your first year you will feel a lot wiser in your second year. You have made some mistakes and lost some money but you have learnt your lesson and should be able to avoid them this year. The second year can still be a struggle financially, but you are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. You are happy that you are getting more clients every day but you are also tired because it has been a stressful two years.

Then the third year rolls around, your business is doing great and you are no longer struggling financially. Your clients have told their friends how great you are and you get lots of referral work. After you pay your bills at the end of the month you find is plenty of money left over for yourself. So, you decide to buy yourself some nice things to reward yourself for all your hard work over the last two years. Perhaps a nice car or going on a big holiday. But, while you are enjoying your money you can begin to lose focus on your business. Phone calls go unanswered, your work becomes sloppy and your turnaround time has increased. Most of it you don’t even notice.

Then when you start the fourth year your attention has been shockingly brought back to your business because your income levels have plummeted. Your clients became annoyed at the quality of your work and your poor service then went somewhere else. I’m not saying this happens to all businesses, but when the money starts coming in its easy to take your eye off the ball and lose focus of what matters in business. Its possible to survive this cycle if this happens to you, but only if you didn’t increase your expenses during the good times by paying off something like a car each week for the next 5 years. Be careful with your money, even when times are good. Always have enough money put away to survive the down times.

If you keep an eye out for this cycle, you’ll notice it happens a lot to other businesses. I’m sure most of us can think of a business that used to be great when they first started out but have since lost the your business due to poor products, quality or service.

  • Phil Benwell says:

    Nice business tip. It is so easy to image that happening 3 years of hard work starts to pay off and then you are left with nothing. Keep it smart ;o)

  • Tektility says:

    I think this happens to me every year. I do better every year, so I need bigger toys every year. 5 years ago I wised up, what I have done with myself and others I mentor. Pay yourself as if you were an employee. Take every cost into account. Just because you can this month does not mean you can next month.

    For example:
    Last year (my year 9) was a bad year. I lost 13 monthly clients, not because I was not paying them attention, but because our local real estate market took a hit that then snowballed into other businesses. Because I learned from my mistakes, my 4 year almost bust. I still have the equity and cash flow to allow me to weather the storm. I pay 98% of everything with cash, if I can’t pay cash I must not need it.

  • iPhone says:

    Great article Bryce and so very true.

    Statistics here in the UK suggest that half of all new start ups don’t actually get past the first year though. I can vouch for that from exeperience – when I am not posting on blogs ro tinkering with web pages, my “real job” is as an Insolvency Practioner, so I see the result of failure everyday.

    The key is to stay focused, markets are changing so fast that you can’t just sit back. Don’t fall foul of year 4 or beyond!

  • iladelf says:

    I had read somewhere online, some years ago, that this is typically how computer repair businesses go:

    1. First year, you starve.
    2. Second year, better, but still starving.
    3. Third year, you start to turn the corner.
    4. Fourth year, you’ve finally made it.

    Interesting to see that the fourth year can be either a “make” or “break” year. Guess what? I’m in my fourth year, and I’m finding it as good, so far.

  • Blogging HQ says:

    Great advice and a reminder to us all on why it is important to keep focus. I will definitely apply the tips you mentioned to my own online business so I can hopefully avoid the fourth year “bust” when it get’s there, and just continue the “Boom”.

  • Bill Schubert says:

    In my 3rd year….paying attention to the more experienced.

  • You just need to stay on your toes and not get complacent.

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