PC Is Here to Stay

[IAMPC]

Interesting article

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic..._says_Gartner_

[16k_zx81]

Im not quite sure that the article supports the statement that's the title of this thread.

Frankly I think any assertion that the pc in its current form has any sustainable longevity is spurious.

[ATTech]

Originally Posted by 16k_zx81

Im not quite sure that the article supports the statement that's the title of this thread.

Frankly I think any assertion that the pc in its current form has any sustainable longevity is spurious.

What he said without all the fancy words.

[AFCSOFME]

I don't think headlines match their story content anywhere, I read an article yesterday at a different site that was headlined that PC sales were down and Tablets were taking over and PC's will be harder to find, etc. There might have been something about aliens with iPads too....

[osho741]

Well for businesses I don't think tablets will be all that practical as the screens are smaller and you would need to dock it to a keyboard. I know that these tablets exist with a docking keyboard but some businesses still need the screen real estate that traditional pcs offer. I think as a portable device they may replace the laptop, but again to completely replace it I would think a keyboard dock would need to be with it for long term usage.

[ATTech]

Originally Posted by osho741

Well for businesses I don't think tablets will be all that practical as the screens are smaller and you would need to dock it to a keyboard. I know that these tablets exist with a docking keyboard but some businesses still need the screen real estate that traditional pcs offer. I think as a portable device they may replace the laptop, but again to completely replace it I would think a keyboard dock would need to be with it for long term usage.

That's the point. You can always dock a device when you need the keyboard and screen real estate. With Google's ADK, people can openly develop accessories for the Android platform, which can include Docks that allow you to hook-up your cell phone or other portable device to a keyboard and mouse. The limitations right now would be the processing power (Which studies show is growing at a faster rate than the average person's requirements are) and data access (Which the cloud is developing to accommodate).

[Paul Rodgers]

Originally Posted by ATTech

That's the point. You can always dock a device when you need the keyboard and screen real estate. With Google's ADK, people can openly develop accessories for the Android platform, which can include Docks that allow you to hook-up your cell phone or other portable device to a keyboard and mouse. The limitations right now would be the processing power (Which studies show is growing at a faster rate than the average person's requirements are) and data access (Which the cloud is developing to accommodate).

The processing power won't mean much with the shift back towards thin clients.

[mraikes]

Originally Posted by ATTech

That's the point. You can always dock a device when you need the keyboard and screen real estate. With Google's ADK, people can openly develop accessories for the Android platform, which can include Docks that allow you to hook-up your cell phone or other portable device to a keyboard and mouse. The limitations right now would be the processing power (Which studies show is growing at a faster rate than the average person's requirements are) and data access (Which the cloud is developing to accommodate).

This isn't really a business-technology issue, but rather a business-practices issue. Portable devices/docking/thin client/etc have been a doable for quite a while.

But most businesses do not (and will not for a very long time) issue hand held portable devices to the rank and file. Too much breakage, loss of control, difficult multi-user and security issues, and so on.

Just look at laptops. They've been more practical and versatile than desktops (IMO) for years. People are increasingly choosing them over desktop computers for their home use. But businesses don't put them on desks.

For a very long time to come, when you walk into any business that is largely bound to desktop computers today, you'll still see desktop computers. It will be the last stronghold of boxy PC computing for very pragmatic (not technical) reasons.

[ATTech]

Originally Posted by Paul Rodgers

The processing power won't mean much with the shift back towards thin clients.

Good point. The average user's requirements aren't just growing slowly, they're regressing with the growth of cloud computing.

Originally Posted by mraikes

This isn't really a business-technology issue, but rather a business-practices issue. Portable devices/docking/thin client/etc have been a doable for quite a while.

Cost savings and practicality are major factors. And the technology isn't there because of that.

But most businesses do not (and will not for a very long time) issue hand held portable devices to the rank and file. Too much breakage, loss of control, difficult multi-user and security issues, and so on.

Actually, they don't issue such devices, like cell phones because the technology isn't at the point where the desktop can be replaced by it, so it's cost prohibitive. All of the above mentioned issues won't be as troubling when devices act more as thin clients as technology develops. The cloud provides user access security, and cheap devices make breakage a non-issue.

Just look at laptops. They've been more practical and versatile than desktops (IMO) for years. People are increasingly choosing them over desktop computers for their home use. But businesses don't put them on desks.

Yes, because you get more power for less money with a desktop. A laptop gives you mobility, which isn't necessary for everybody. As cloud computing becomes more prevalent, that need for power and storage decreases.

For a very long time to come, when you walk into any business that is largely bound to desktop computers today, you'll still see desktop computers. It will be the last stronghold of boxy PC computing for very pragmatic (not technical) reasons.

It's nice to think that, but technology evolves, which is why we're not using terminals and mainframes anymore.

[mraikes]

Originally Posted by ATTech

Cost savings and practicality are major factors. And the technology isn't there because of that.
>>>>>
Actually, they don't issue such devices, like cell phones because the technology isn't at the point where the desktop can be replaced by it, so it's cost prohibitive. All of the above mentioned issues won't be as troubling when devices act more as thin clients as technology develops. The cloud provides user access security, and cheap devices make breakage a non-issue.
>>>>>>
Yes, because you get more power for less money with a desktop. A laptop gives you mobility, which isn't necessary for everybody. As cloud computing becomes more prevalent, that need for power and storage decreases.
>>>>>
It's nice to think that, but technology evolves, which is why we're not using terminals and mainframes anymore.

The technology IS there for many businesses to use smaller more portable devices like inexpensive netbooks IF they wanted to do it. They don't. It's not a thick-vs-thin client issue for the average business and devices will never become so inexpensive that loss or breakage becomes a "non-issue" to a business.

In the great scheme of things, desktop computers don't vanish into someone's pocket, get dropped on the floor, are easily repaired & upgraded, easy to account for, they're inexpensive (considering), and they do what needs to be done. Where's the pressure for businesses to ditch them? Just because they can? Business doesn't usually move that way. There needs to be a clear value proposition in moving to a new technology.

We don't use terminals and mainframes anymore because they were hugely expensive, limited in capability, and beyond the reach of all but the largest companies. They were largely inaccessible to small and medium businesses and are are a straw man, rather than an apples to apples example of what is occurring today.

There are only a few reasons to replace an extremely widespread, deep seated, well known, affordable and simple technology like desktop PC's. And "just because we can" hasn't historically been a prime mover of profit driven business.

I'm not saying it will never happen. It's inevitable that change of some kind will occur. But I'm not convinced the gadget that will slay the desktop PC in the workplace has popped up over the horizon yet.

Instead, I predict a change in business practice. Today we expect an employer to provide a computer to the employee. But will it be much longer before an employer can assume (and require) that an employee already have a portable computing device that can access cloud resources and get the job done? When that day comes, businesses will save trillions of dollars and the desktop computer will evaporate into history.