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IAMPC
10-23-2011, 05:40 AM
Hard drives could get scarce: Apple, analysts

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-20124201-64/hard-drives-could-get-scarce-apple-analysts/?tag=cnetRiver

NerdHouse
10-23-2011, 03:24 PM
I remember maybe 11 or so years ago there were a number of earthquakes that hit Taiwan and their factories. I remember when ram prices sky rocketed and were also scarce due to the factories that make them being down. Hopefully we don't see anything as drastic. I would think that the hard drive manufacturers would plan for something like this and have a backup/redundancy plan in place.

joydivision
10-23-2011, 05:23 PM
Just checked and it seems the prices of hard drives have nearly doubled in the UK in two days :mad:

nesrinamb
10-23-2011, 08:52 PM
Here in Thousand oaks and the Palmdale, CA area 500gb have gone up from $39-49.

By the way I believe new egg still has a few for 500gb drives for $39 and so does tiger direct. Personally I'm thinking of ordering 30 from online retailers and reselling them in November.

I wrote an article on my tech blog about this.

pceinc
10-23-2011, 10:28 PM
Tried to order some WD 500GB drives on Friday and found them to be in very short supply and expensive. Employee said that WD's facilities in Singapore were being affected by flooding.

nesrinamb
10-23-2011, 11:36 PM
Just checked again today it turns out prices here already got to $55.

joydivision
10-24-2011, 12:10 PM
Managed to hopefully get a couple of 500gb SATAs for this job I am doing, paid 37 each, a lot less than the 50 most computer shops now want.

Could this cause a shift towards SSDs I wonder?

Cornerstone Technologies
10-24-2011, 01:31 PM
Managed to hopefully get a couple of 500gb SATAs for this job I am doing, paid 37 each, a lot less than the 50 most computer shops now want.

Could this cause a shift towards SSDs I wonder?

Unlikely, as I would expect the prices of SSDs to increase in response to increased demand.

MobileTechie
10-24-2011, 01:42 PM
Just checked and it seems the prices of hard drives have nearly doubled in the UK in two days :mad:

I can't see that. Just looking on Amazon and they seem a little more than before but that's it. E.g. I bought a Hitachi Hds721010cla332 3.5inch 1tb 32mb Sata 7200rpm Hard Disk Drive for 43.31 in September. It's now 49.99

I bought some Western Digital Scorpio Blue 320GB 5400 RPM SATA Mobile Internal Hard Drive OEM at 36 each and they're now 39.99.

732914TECH
10-24-2011, 01:56 PM
Ive looked on newegg recently a 500gb sata desktop drive used to cost 38 now i see it for 65. its definitely going up

joydivision
10-24-2011, 02:38 PM
I can't see that. Just looking on Amazon and they seem a little more than before but that's it. E.g. I bought a Hitachi Hds721010cla332 3.5inch 1tb 32mb Sata 7200rpm Hard Disk Drive for 43.31 in September. It's now 49.99

I bought some Western Digital Scorpio Blue 320GB 5400 RPM SATA Mobile Internal Hard Drive OEM at 36 each and they're now 39.99.

Amazon and Play.com have been slow to update thier prices, but Microdirect, Ebuyer, CCL have increased prices by around 30%.

Ebuyer now want 50 for a 500gb SATA!!

stro
10-24-2011, 02:40 PM
I have accounts with 3 of the top 10 wholesale distributors in the US, and their stock of hard drives is wiped out other than a few 1.5 and 2.5G drives and some way over priced HP part numbers (160GB HP branded seagate for $165)

pceinc
10-24-2011, 10:32 PM
this ^ :mad:


filler

mortaltech
10-25-2011, 04:41 AM
Called local supplier today for what ever IDE drives they had in stock and got quoted 160GB for $79 and a 360GB for $125. This is unreal at this point in time.

Appleby
10-25-2011, 05:28 AM
I had a regional supplier that I rarely use, give me a call last week warning me about this and urging me to buy drives before the price went up. I was super busy and hadn't heard of any of this and didn't have time to research it, so I ignored them. Ordered a couple laptop drives from Amazon I needed a couple days later with no problem. Needed more drives today and was shocked to see the limited supply and prices at both Newegg and Amazon!:eek: Amazon limited me to 1 320 GB drive for the one I wanted and the prices were $5-$10 higher across the board then last week.

smokeeater405
10-25-2011, 06:19 AM
I have noticed this also. Bought a HDD from tigerdirect.com the other and didn't think about it at the time but the price seemed high. Definitely higher that the price I quoted the customer one week prior. Hope this ends soon. That is why outsourcing everything to other countries needs to stop.

NETWizz
10-25-2011, 06:33 AM
I bought these in February for $99.99
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822136592

Now they are $139... All I can say is WTF?

Not only that... LIMIT ONE PER CUSTOMER... <==Insanity!

PWD
10-25-2011, 03:40 PM
I though it was just me with the prices going back up. I guess I should be more aware.

Tony_Scarpelli
10-25-2011, 05:42 PM
Here in Thousand oaks and the Palmdale, CA area 500gb have gone up from $39-49.

By the way I believe new egg still has a few for 500gb drives for $39 and so does tiger direct. Personally I'm thinking of ordering 30 from online retailers and reselling them in November.

I wrote an article on my tech blog about this.


ha, ha, ha.....this is exactly why there will be a shortage.

Speculators.

So now there will be plenty of drives but they will be in some guys garage rather than available at walmart or new egg so prices go up until other factories are re-tasked and then a flood of drives come out and the speculators get left holding a two year supply of drives in their garage.

I'm going to order them as I need them and pass whatever the price is plus my normal markup percentage to that then cost, on to the customer as usual.

Last night both my vendors were out of all drives all sizes so the game begins.

pceinc
10-26-2011, 06:58 PM
At what point do you accuse Newegg and the likes of price gouging? Yesterday I ordered some WD3200BEVT drives for $59. Today they are $89. D&H drive stock is non existent. I can't imagine Newegg is floating on low inventory levels like we are, but rather have high levels and jack the price up knowing the drives are not in stock at any of the other popular suppliers. To top it off, I have to place multiple orders because they only allow 1 per customer.

Just a thought.

budsandbytes
10-26-2011, 07:13 PM
Microcenter has classified all of their hard drives as "in store only" items.

The price, however, hasn't changed at all. 320GB WD Blue in Retail box for $49.99. Same as last week, and $5 less than they were last month.

Stock at my local store is about what it usually is. Hopefully things stay that way.

stro
10-26-2011, 07:36 PM
This article really details up how bad it is:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/301873-thailand-flooding-will-ravage-tech-earnings-into-2012?source=yahoo

They estimate a worldwide demand for around 170 million HDDs, with a supply of 110 million HDDs.

I've heard the factories at WD are 6 meters deep in water. The tooling isn't gonna be repairable, it will have to be replaced. According to the article, new machinery has about a 10-14 month lead time.

Of course with prices going up, there will be more incentive to try to ramp up and move production else where, but that isn't gonna happen overnight.

Tony_Scarpelli
10-26-2011, 11:22 PM
At what point do you accuse Newegg and the likes of price gouging? Yesterday I ordered some WD3200BEVT drives for $59. Today they are $89. D&H drive stock is non existent. I can't imagine Newegg is floating on low inventory levels like we are, but rather have high levels and jack the price up knowing the drives are not in stock at any of the other popular suppliers. To top it off, I have to place multiple orders because they only allow 1 per customer.

Just a thought.

I'ts not gouging any more than your adding your normal markup and selling it to your clients based on what you pay for it.

They have to replace the drives they sell. I'm not sure they carry much inventory.

I'm just adding my markup and passing it on. Nothing else you can do.

joydivision
10-26-2011, 11:33 PM
This is going to have a big effect on our business, because if prices increase anymore a basic repair will cost too much.

I wonder if the prices of SSDs may start to fall as they could increase production?

Kicking myself for not ordering any drives.

joydivision
10-27-2011, 01:08 AM
500gbs have now reached 100 in the UK. I have just ordered enough to keep me in business for a couple of weeks, after that if no new supplies hit the UK then a hard drive replacement can easily start to cost 200, a cost people won't pay so I either have to eat the margins.

Actually very worried about this and surprised it has not been discussed more here. That said it has been very quiet on here recently which is another worrying sign, although I have been mad busy as my premium desktops have proved popular.

RAPIDsector
10-27-2011, 03:21 AM
I've heard the factories at WD are 6 meters deep in water. The tooling isn't gonna be repairable, it will have to be replaced. According to the article, new machinery has about a 10-14 month lead time.

Of course with prices going up, there will be more incentive to try to ramp up and move production else where, but that isn't gonna happen overnight.

Good read. It's gonna hurt. It's amazing WD cut their expected earnings in half. That's rough. However, with $1 billion on the line, I think they'll find a way to get things back online sooner rather than later.

iladelf
10-27-2011, 06:54 AM
Just checked eBay randomly and, depending on the size and vendor, there are still bargains to be had, even for new drives.

Cambridge PC Support
10-27-2011, 02:03 PM
500gbs have now reached 100 in the UK. I have just ordered enough to keep me in business for a couple of weeks, after that if no new supplies hit the UK then a hard drive replacement can easily start to cost 200, a cost people won't pay so I either have to eat the margins.

Actually very worried about this and surprised it has not been discussed more here. That said it has been very quiet on here recently which is another worrying sign, although I have been mad busy as my premium desktops have proved popular.

80 at eBuyer with 25 in stock, run! ;)

if people want a new hdd then they'll have to pay, I'm not gonna cut margins to suit

I've been really quiet the last week, been busy the last few months though

Cambridge PC Support
10-27-2011, 02:05 PM
are we talking just 3.5" drives or 2.5" ones too?

Steve202
10-27-2011, 02:13 PM
500gbs have now reached 100 in the UK. I have just ordered enough to keep me in business for a couple of weeks, after that if no new supplies hit the UK then a hard drive replacement can easily start to cost 200, a cost people won't pay so I either have to eat the margins.

Actually very worried about this and surprised it has not been discussed more here. That said it has been very quiet on here recently which is another worrying sign, although I have been mad busy as my premium desktops have proved popular.

Seriously don't let your margins drop just because the price of hard drives have gone up. Pass the price increase on to your customers.

Cadishead Computers
10-27-2011, 02:35 PM
+1 on not dropping any margins.

In fact, I am not even stocking up on drives, if / when I need one, I will order to suit. If the cost keeps rising, then so be it, the client will have to pay. There are a number of places where we can get drives from, that isn't a issue, if the client thinks its too high, then we could ask them to source one them selves, to see the cost of them.

I am scared of having a stock of drives, say at 100 each, and then everything will be back to normal, and these 100 drives will be worth 30 as they used to be. Then I will have to eat the remainder. Rather like the old memory problems from a few years ago.

Cambridge PC Support
10-27-2011, 02:42 PM
In fact, I am not even stocking up on drives, if / when I need one, I will order to suit. If the cost keeps rising, then so be it, the client will have to pay. There are a number of places where we can get drives from, that isn't a issue, if the client thinks its too high, then we could ask them to source one them selves, to see the cost of them.

I am scared of having a stock of drives, say at 100 each, and then everything will be back to normal, and these 100 drives will be worth 30 as they used to be. Then I will have to eat the remainder. Rather like the old memory problems from a few years ago.

I'm with Nige on the stocking up - the only stocking for me will be the one at Xmas pinned to the chimney :)

joydivision
10-27-2011, 02:49 PM
Been quiet this week but the few two hard drive replacements (luckily bought before the price increase) and viruses are keeping me going.

joydivision
10-27-2011, 02:55 PM
+1 on not dropping any margins.

In fact, I am not even stocking up on drives, if / when I need one, I will order to suit. If the cost keeps rising, then so be it, the client will have to pay. There are a number of places where we can get drives from, that isn't a issue, if the client thinks its too high, then we could ask them to source one them selves, to see the cost of them.

I am scared of having a stock of drives, say at 100 each, and then everything will be back to normal, and these 100 drives will be worth 30 as they used to be. Then I will have to eat the remainder. Rather like the old memory problems from a few years ago.

Exactly why I am not stocking up, I did buy a 500gb SATA for 45 and a 320gb SATA 2.5" for 42 last night, still expensive but I know I will sell them on and if prices do fall I haven't lost much.

And if hard drive stocks run out completely, then there is always SSDs, assuming stocks don't run out of them.

Got a couple of old 160gb SATA drives too, which I could test and do a full wipe and could offer customers this option if they were really stuck.

1aComputerServices
10-27-2011, 03:06 PM
Yeah stocking up is a gamble and is not for me.

dgast
10-27-2011, 03:23 PM
In another industry I was in we always sold based on replacement cost unless it was a loss but we always sold for at least 20-25% margin. There were times we stocked up on truck loads of materials that margined out at 75-100%. Besides the client is coming to you for your knowledge not because of your hardware costs, right? So having a stock of cheap drives during a shortage makes some sense especially if the price doubles. Plus if you have drives and others don't your customer base may grow during that time just because you have what others don't. No matter what happens it is a gamble especially if other manufacturers pick up the slack. Just a thought.

tarik
10-27-2011, 03:43 PM
all hard drives are affected!

MobileTechie
10-27-2011, 04:27 PM
I've got a bit of stock of 3.5" drives because I accidentally ordered some instead of 2.5" ones. I've just stocked up on 2.5" drives,. Either I can give a better deal or make a better margin depending how things go. I can't see me losing on it.

Cadishead Computers
10-27-2011, 04:33 PM
Got a couple of old 160gb SATA drives too, which I could test and do a full wipe and could offer customers this option if they were really stuck.

My thoughts too. I have a heap of 40 & 80Gb drives, couple 120's and 160's
which I can test and wipe. But could only offer a short warranty on them. Basically to get them through whilst waiting on a replacement drive if needed. Save all music, pics etc to the server (to save space on the swapped drive), then simply copy them back over once the drives are back to normal costings. Else the client will have to pay the upped prices.

parker.casey
10-27-2011, 05:02 PM
Prices are going through the roof.

joydivision
10-27-2011, 05:02 PM
I am now worried about potential failures of the jobs I have done. E.g if a drive I replaced six months ago fails, what chance I have got of an RMA if there are no stocks? Would I be expected to pay for the replacement myself?

Cornerstone Technologies
10-27-2011, 06:19 PM
I am now worried about potential failures of the jobs I have done. E.g if a drive I replaced six months ago fails, what chance I have got of an RMA if there are no stocks? Would I be expected to pay for the replacement myself?


Oh nos! What if? If you are so worried about this issue, I would suggest finding a more stable line of work that does not count on commodities and their availability. In my Subaru, the electric seat motors failed 6 months ago. It took about that long for the warranty replacement to arrive from Japan since there was this tsunami and nuclear problem. The dealer was upfront about the issue, and it barely got replaced yesterday.

Personally, I wouldn't panic and buy up every hard drive I can get my hands on. When availability returns and the price drops, I wouldn't want to be the guy stuck with drives that I will lose money on. I just find your post extreamely alarmist. Companies are not suddenly going to stop honoring RMAs, but it might take quite awhile to fulfill them. Its up to you how you handle it. Personally, my hard drives are warrantied through the manufacturer. It is not my fault if Taiwan is under water and hard drives are a bit slow off the boat. Get creative and think outside the box. But whatever you do, stop with the 'Sky is falling' nonsense.

nesrinamb
10-27-2011, 06:53 PM
Well according to different press releases the factories should be up and running by the first quarter of 2012. So until then their should be some major price increases. But that's if the people who didn't already buy up all the hard drives don't sell them at the same time and make the price drop substantially.

Tony_Scarpelli
10-28-2011, 03:59 AM
You see a problem, I see an opportunity. I am using this to sell a new computer. Why pay $200+ for drive and $180 for me to install/load it and move your data when for $699 I can sell you a new one with full warranty.

I'm buying pre-builds cheaper than I can build them, so saving myself money and time to do the build-out/installs. Its great. l Everyone is talking about the shortage so my customers don't doubt what I tell them its time to move on to the next system.

I won't carry 'any' drives until I need them and I will buy them retail from walmart if I have too. If they get to crazy I will let my customers pick them up and bring them in for me to do the installation. I am not sweating it at all.

Warranty is the same, you rma the drive for them, if they do not want to wait for it to come back they can buy a new one and you keep the rma'd drive as additional profit. RMA drives are usually other returned drives that have been repaired so new availability shouldn't affect RMA's.

ljtechservices
10-29-2011, 02:34 PM
Drive I paid $40 for on the 18th is going for $70 this week.
Newegg would only let me order one so I had to order another one from amazon.

Amazon is also limiting them to one per person.

D&H has very few Hard drives listed as "in stock"

haven't checked the other suppliers.

joydivision
10-29-2011, 03:47 PM
I have canceled my order for the two drives, checked on status "awaiting stock" so I figured I will still be waiting this time year.

One of my drives I did order for this job also seems to have gone missing in the post :mad: So I am now one 500gb drive short of a RAID.

NETWizz
10-31-2011, 04:30 PM
I bought these in February for $99.99
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822136592

Now they are $139... All I can say is WTF?

Not only that... LIMIT ONE PER CUSTOMER... <==Insanity!

Holly ****!! $209 now!!!

ljtechservices
10-31-2011, 07:36 PM
Holly ****!! $209 now!!!

the worse thing isn't the price, it's the one per customer limitations.
I really need 2 of the same drive for the end of the week.
I have them ordered, one has been delivered, but getting them from one place would be nice.
I'm sure there is enough drives out there.
Those suppliers that have contracts with Dell, HP, etc probably held back enough to cover their customers
Whomever has the rest is just watching the prices go up and waiting to release them.

Martyn
10-31-2011, 08:12 PM
Don't you wish you had stocked up on them, they are going up in price faster than fuel in the UK? :eek: :rolleyes:

joydivision
10-31-2011, 09:08 PM
But as Nige says, we could have ended up with a load of stock we can't shift. I do wish I bought some just before the price increases though!! But then if I could turn the clock back there is a lot of things I wish.

xboxhaxorz
11-01-2011, 09:56 AM
i just sent in a samsung drive to get it warrantied and i got it back very soon so at least warranties are going through

Painless
11-01-2011, 11:11 AM
I'm breathing a huge sigh of relief here. I'm in the thros of building a Raid for a customer and have just taken delivery of 15 2tb drives at an average cost of 59 ( mixing manufacturers and suppliers ). The average cost is now 150 !!! and getting that many would have been difficult.

I won't be stockpiling anything. I'll just pay the price and pass it on to the customer.

John

joydivision
11-01-2011, 12:47 PM
The last drive for my raid arrived yesterday (very late) but was a massive relieve.

Going to buy a 320gb 2.5 from Maplin this afternoon (39.99), and that will now by my grand total of stock.

No more price increases this week too by the look of it :)

stro
11-01-2011, 05:29 PM
ASUS: 'We run out of hard disks at the end of the month'

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/10/31/small_profit_for_asus/

Slaters Kustum Machines
11-01-2011, 07:24 PM
Interesting. I wonder how close the other big names are?