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IAMPC
07-15-2011, 01:20 PM
Interesting article

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9218412/PC_market_downshifting_says_Gartner_

16k_zx81
07-15-2011, 02:55 PM
Im not quite sure that the article supports the statement that's the title of this thread.

Frankly I think any assertion that the pc in its current form has any sustainable longevity is spurious.

ATTech
07-15-2011, 02:58 PM
Im not quite sure that the article supports the statement that's the title of this thread.

Frankly I think any assertion that the pc in its current form has any sustainable longevity is spurious.
What he said without all the fancy words.

AFCSOFME
07-15-2011, 03:08 PM
I don't think headlines match their story content anywhere, I read an article yesterday at a different site that was headlined that PC sales were down and Tablets were taking over and PC's will be harder to find, etc. There might have been something about aliens with iPads too....

osho741
07-15-2011, 05:17 PM
Well for businesses I don't think tablets will be all that practical as the screens are smaller and you would need to dock it to a keyboard. I know that these tablets exist with a docking keyboard but some businesses still need the screen real estate that traditional pcs offer. I think as a portable device they may replace the laptop, but again to completely replace it I would think a keyboard dock would need to be with it for long term usage.

ATTech
07-15-2011, 05:28 PM
Well for businesses I don't think tablets will be all that practical as the screens are smaller and you would need to dock it to a keyboard. I know that these tablets exist with a docking keyboard but some businesses still need the screen real estate that traditional pcs offer. I think as a portable device they may replace the laptop, but again to completely replace it I would think a keyboard dock would need to be with it for long term usage.
That's the point. You can always dock a device when you need the keyboard and screen real estate. With Google's ADK, people can openly develop accessories for the Android platform, which can include Docks that allow you to hook-up your cell phone or other portable device to a keyboard and mouse. The limitations right now would be the processing power (Which studies show is growing at a faster rate than the average person's requirements are) and data access (Which the cloud is developing to accommodate).

Paul Rodgers
07-15-2011, 05:49 PM
That's the point. You can always dock a device when you need the keyboard and screen real estate. With Google's ADK, people can openly develop accessories for the Android platform, which can include Docks that allow you to hook-up your cell phone or other portable device to a keyboard and mouse. The limitations right now would be the processing power (Which studies show is growing at a faster rate than the average person's requirements are) and data access (Which the cloud is developing to accommodate).

The processing power won't mean much with the shift back towards thin clients.

mraikes
07-15-2011, 06:00 PM
That's the point. You can always dock a device when you need the keyboard and screen real estate. With Google's ADK, people can openly develop accessories for the Android platform, which can include Docks that allow you to hook-up your cell phone or other portable device to a keyboard and mouse. The limitations right now would be the processing power (Which studies show is growing at a faster rate than the average person's requirements are) and data access (Which the cloud is developing to accommodate).

This isn't really a business-technology issue, but rather a business-practices issue. Portable devices/docking/thin client/etc have been a doable for quite a while.

But most businesses do not (and will not for a very long time) issue hand held portable devices to the rank and file. Too much breakage, loss of control, difficult multi-user and security issues, and so on.

Just look at laptops. They've been more practical and versatile than desktops (IMO) for years. People are increasingly choosing them over desktop computers for their home use. But businesses don't put them on desks.

For a very long time to come, when you walk into any business that is largely bound to desktop computers today, you'll still see desktop computers. It will be the last stronghold of boxy PC computing for very pragmatic (not technical) reasons.

ATTech
07-15-2011, 06:54 PM
The processing power won't mean much with the shift back towards thin clients.
Good point. The average user's requirements aren't just growing slowly, they're regressing with the growth of cloud computing.
This isn't really a business-technology issue, but rather a business-practices issue. Portable devices/docking/thin client/etc have been a doable for quite a while.
Cost savings and practicality are major factors. And the technology isn't there because of that.

But most businesses do not (and will not for a very long time) issue hand held portable devices to the rank and file. Too much breakage, loss of control, difficult multi-user and security issues, and so on.
Actually, they don't issue such devices, like cell phones because the technology isn't at the point where the desktop can be replaced by it, so it's cost prohibitive. All of the above mentioned issues won't be as troubling when devices act more as thin clients as technology develops. The cloud provides user access security, and cheap devices make breakage a non-issue.

Just look at laptops. They've been more practical and versatile than desktops (IMO) for years. People are increasingly choosing them over desktop computers for their home use. But businesses don't put them on desks.
Yes, because you get more power for less money with a desktop. A laptop gives you mobility, which isn't necessary for everybody. As cloud computing becomes more prevalent, that need for power and storage decreases.
For a very long time to come, when you walk into any business that is largely bound to desktop computers today, you'll still see desktop computers. It will be the last stronghold of boxy PC computing for very pragmatic (not technical) reasons.
It's nice to think that, but technology evolves, which is why we're not using terminals and mainframes anymore.

mraikes
07-15-2011, 07:50 PM
Cost savings and practicality are major factors. And the technology isn't there because of that.
>>>>>
Actually, they don't issue such devices, like cell phones because the technology isn't at the point where the desktop can be replaced by it, so it's cost prohibitive. All of the above mentioned issues won't be as troubling when devices act more as thin clients as technology develops. The cloud provides user access security, and cheap devices make breakage a non-issue.
>>>>>>
Yes, because you get more power for less money with a desktop. A laptop gives you mobility, which isn't necessary for everybody. As cloud computing becomes more prevalent, that need for power and storage decreases.
>>>>>
It's nice to think that, but technology evolves, which is why we're not using terminals and mainframes anymore.


The technology IS there for many businesses to use smaller more portable devices like inexpensive netbooks IF they wanted to do it. They don't. It's not a thick-vs-thin client issue for the average business and devices will never become so inexpensive that loss or breakage becomes a "non-issue" to a business.

In the great scheme of things, desktop computers don't vanish into someone's pocket, get dropped on the floor, are easily repaired & upgraded, easy to account for, they're inexpensive (considering), and they do what needs to be done. Where's the pressure for businesses to ditch them? Just because they can? Business doesn't usually move that way. There needs to be a clear value proposition in moving to a new technology.

We don't use terminals and mainframes anymore because they were hugely expensive, limited in capability, and beyond the reach of all but the largest companies. They were largely inaccessible to small and medium businesses and are are a straw man, rather than an apples to apples example of what is occurring today.

There are only a few reasons to replace an extremely widespread, deep seated, well known, affordable and simple technology like desktop PC's. And "just because we can" hasn't historically been a prime mover of profit driven business.

I'm not saying it will never happen. It's inevitable that change of some kind will occur. But I'm not convinced the gadget that will slay the desktop PC in the workplace has popped up over the horizon yet.

Instead, I predict a change in business practice. Today we expect an employer to provide a computer to the employee. But will it be much longer before an employer can assume (and require) that an employee already have a portable computing device that can access cloud resources and get the job done? When that day comes, businesses will save trillions of dollars and the desktop computer will evaporate into history.

ATTech
07-15-2011, 08:11 PM
The technology IS there for many businesses to use smaller more portable devices like inexpensive netbooks IF they wanted to do it. They don't. It's not a thick-vs-thin client issue for the average business and devices will never become so inexpensive that loss or breakage becomes a "non-issue" to a business.

In the great scheme of things, desktop computers don't vanish into someone's pocket, get dropped on the floor, are easily repaired & upgraded, easy to account for, they're inexpensive (considering), and they do what needs to be done. Where's the pressure for businesses to ditch them? Just because they can? Business doesn't usually move that way. There needs to be a clear value proposition in moving to a new technology.

We don't use terminals and mainframes anymore because they were hugely expensive, limited in capability, and beyond the reach of all but the largest companies. They were largely inaccessible to small and medium businesses and are are a straw man, rather than an apples to apples example of what is occurring today.

There are only a few reasons to replace an extremely widespread, deep seated, well known, affordable and simple technology like desktop PC's. And "just because we can" hasn't historically been a prime mover of profit driven business.

I'm not saying it will never happen. It's inevitable that change of some kind will occur. But I'm not convinced the gadget that will slay the desktop PC in the workplace has popped up over the horizon yet.

Instead, I predict a change in business practice. Today we expect an employer to provide a computer to the employee. But will it be much longer before an employer can assume (and require) that an employee already have a portable computing device that can access cloud resources and get the job done? When that day comes, businesses will save trillions of dollars and the desktop computer will evaporate into history.
The desktop is getting smaller while the smartphone is getting more powerful. They're headed in the same direction to becoming a singular device.

mraikes
07-15-2011, 08:40 PM
The desktop is getting smaller while the smartphone is getting more powerful. They're headed in the same direction to becoming a singular device.

That's not the point. Or maybe it is. :)

Once they become a singular device everyone will each have their own and employers will no longer provide them. That will be the death of the PC as used today.

But it's not happening yet and probably won't until and unless individuals are willing to absorb that cost themselves. If they are never willing, we're back to square one where (to a point) a tiny device that does the same thing as a modestly sized device is often a liability rather than a benefit to many businesses.

Paul Rodgers
07-15-2011, 08:54 PM
Instead, I predict a change in business practice. Today we expect an employer to provide a computer to the employee. But will it be much longer before an employer can assume (and require) that an employee already have a portable computing device that can access cloud resources and get the job done? When that day comes, businesses will save trillions of dollars and the desktop computer will evaporate into history.

I don't think so. Business have a great deal of control over something that they own. A business can legally do just about whatever they want to with their own computers, but when someone brings a personal computer in the law is on the employees side.

IAMPC
07-15-2011, 09:06 PM
Im not quite sure that the article supports the statement that's the title of this thread.

Frankly I think any assertion that the pc in its current form has any sustainable longevity is spurious.

No one said PC in its current form. Just that personal computers are here to stay and iPad and smart phones are not going to destroy them...

ATTech
07-15-2011, 09:16 PM
That's not the point. Or maybe it is. :)

Once they become a singular device everyone will each have their own and employers will no longer provide them. That will be the death of the PC as used today.

But it's not happening yet and probably won't until and unless individuals are willing to absorb that cost themselves. If they are never willing, we're back to square one where (to a point) a tiny device that does the same thing as a modestly sized device is often a liability rather than a benefit to many businesses.

Oh I definitely agree that businesses could go to the BYOC model. My point is that with the expansion of cloud computing, the differences that we see with the different computing devices start to fade and head towards a singular device. At some point, It might not be up to the businesses. Manufacturers may move towards these "omni-devices" and businesses will be forced to follow suite. It's not like it's happening tomorrow; it's definitely going to take time as technology progresses.

I don't think so. Business have a great deal of control over something that they own. A business can legally do just about whatever they want to with their own computers, but when someone brings a personal computer in the law is on the employees side.
Not in their current form, but as these devices move more and more towards thin-clients, "control" is on the server's side, rather than the client's.

mraikes
07-15-2011, 09:29 PM
I don't think so. Business have a great deal of control over something that they own. A business can legally do just about whatever they want to with their own computers, but when someone brings a personal computer in the law is on the employees side.

And a great deal of control over anything brought upon their premises.

But nope, not doable today. But I wouldn't bet against it in the future.

gunslinger
07-15-2011, 11:33 PM
No one said PC in its current form. Just that personal computers are here to stay and iPad and smart phones are not going to destroy them...

For some the smart phone and iPad already have taken the place of the PC. In fact two of my friends recently got rid of their desktop PCs , one for an iPad the other for a Droid. When all you do is take notes and surf the net it makes more sense.


For the professional or PC gamer there will always be a place for the powerful desktop system. But look at it this way. The camera: I while back everyone had a digital camera. Then phones started coming with a 5-8 mp cam and now you see the sells of cameras has bottomed out hard. The true pro will always want the 12-16mp cam with lenses but for most people the 8 mp cam on their phone will do just fine and its always with you.

Appleby
07-16-2011, 02:58 AM
What he said without all the fancy words.

I 100% agree. :D

filler

IAMPC
07-16-2011, 10:59 PM
For some the smart phone and iPad already have taken the place of the PC.

I don't agree. If iPad and and smart phones has taken the place of PC for someone, then it means they were never in need of a computer to begin with. They just didn't have any choice until iPad and smart phones came along. True computer users like me and millions of other people will need something with much more capability to do their work.

I am a true computer user because I need to develop web sites, use Office, Photoshop, programming, website analytic, games, order parts, research and much much more. Something that you "CAN NOT" do with a 7" or 10" screen and limited capabilities.

colonydata
07-16-2011, 11:47 PM
i worried about this for a while. until i got a couple of clients that depended on there cell phone for business and were not to sure about cell phones that did much more than make calls, but wanted the connectivity that a smartphone offered.

turns out that the iPad is a great solution for them, coupled with a gmail account or Google apps account. first client i migrated to a gmail account because we could not come up with a sure fire way to ensure that both his ipad and outlook got all of his email with out jumping through some hoops. (mainly making sure that he kept his inbox on the server under capacity).

once he learned how to manage his contacts, calendar and email on the ipad and through gmail, we just completely cut outlook out of loop. which amazes me because when i started working with him, outlook was his primary use for the computer.

and i have had a pretty consistent stream of hours from these clients. i will email them when i see a new feature or new app that might be useful to them. and most of the time they will tell me to come at my earliest convince to set it up.

gunslinger
07-17-2011, 03:02 AM
I don't agree. If iPad and and smart phones has taken the place of PC for someone, then it means they were never in need of a computer to begin with. They just didn't have any choice until iPad and smart phones came along. True computer users like me and millions of other people will need something with much more capability to do their work.

I am a true computer user because I need to develop web sites, use Office, Photoshop, programming, website analytic, games, order parts, research and much much more. Something that you "CAN NOT" do with a 7" or 10" screen and limited capabilities.

Your logic is flawed. You are not a "True computer user" You are a power user or professional. The average computer user takes notes, checks email and gets on facebook. Maybe looks at some porn now and again. I think you are out of touch with what most users actually use their computers for. You are right about them not having a choice till now. Tablet computers and smart phones are redoubling in power almost monthly. Most smart phones these days are more powerful than a good laptop of a few years ago.

Wheelie
07-18-2011, 12:29 AM
I don't agree. If iPad and and smart phones has taken the place of PC for someone, then it means they were never in need of a computer to begin with. They just didn't have any choice until iPad and smart phones came along. True computer users like me and millions of other people will need something with much more capability to do their work.

I am a true computer user because I need to develop web sites, use Office, Photoshop, programming, website analytic, games, order parts, research and much much more. Something that you "CAN NOT" do with a 7" or 10" screen and limited capabilities.

We beat this to death in another thread.

Everything tends to move towards smaller and faster. Just like PC's the smartphone horsepower of today follows Moore's Law so the smart phone of 5 years from now will, in fact, have roughly the same horsepower of today's desktop PC. When you couple that with the fact that smart phone makers are working very hard to make it easy to set your smart phone down on your desk and have it immediately work with your 24" LCD, full-size keyboard and mouse then you essentially have a desktop PC in your smart phone. Another death blow to the PC is that mobile carriers are working feverishly to make 20 Mbps the standard connection speed.

Will this kill the desktop/laptop PC? No. But tablets and smartphones will severely reduce the number of installed traditional PC's.